Small circulation east of the Lesser Antilles

[NDG]

Tropical wave near 47W has a nice vorticity this morning, is in low wind shear with some limited convection.
Has no real model support except last night's CMC that tries to close a low as it reaches the islands in a couple of days.

[KWT]

Hmmm interesting presentation, should be enough to get noticed, wouldn't even rule out an invest...

[NDG]

Visible sat loop actually shows a possible weak surface eddy to the east of the convection.
They need to declare this an invest to see what tropical models do with it.
Global models are not doing much with it possilbly because of its small size.

[KWT]

I suspect the NHC will at least make this a lemon, sure the models don't do much, but then again they haven't done much with any system this year thus far...

[NDG]

I circled the area that I can clearly see a small eddie/LLC, but now has lost its convection.

[tailgater]

I guess in a day or 2 it will be near Barbados, I thought this was about the wave before this one.
Nice inflow and decent vorticity at 850mb so yes I'd say Invest with a 10 percent in the next 48 hrs. without studing what lies ahead.

[Sanibel]

I can't see how TWC would say that 47W system won't develop. It's clearly spinning-up even with its weak convection.

[tailgater]

Here's another look at your eddy NDC. looks well estabished.


Ramdis has a close up 1Km floater on it.

[NDG]

I guess in a day or 2 it will be near Barbados, I thought this was about the wave before this one.
Nice inflow and decent vorticity at 850mb so yes I'd say Invest with a 10 percent in the next 48 hrs. without studing what lies ahead.

Yeah, originaly this thread was about the area of convection that was just off of Barbados yesterday.

[KWT]

I can't see how TWC would say that 47W system won't develop. It's clearly spinning-up even with its weak convection.

Well the models show nothing, thats normally half the battle with the NHC percentage system, if there is model support orm not...plus it has sortan poofed most of its convection now.

[ROCK]

this has got to be the area the 0Z GFS is developomg as it enters the EGOM....0Z NOGAPS sees it also....

[colbroe]

The area is question now has a 1012 low attached to it .

[colbroe]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N50W TO 18N45W MOVING W-NW AT
10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
13N48W AND AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB...OR LOW TO
MID-LEVEL...TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

[NDG]

this has got to be the area the 0Z GFS is developomg as it enters the EGOM....0Z NOGAPS sees it also....

No, I believe the one the GFS develops in the EGOM is from a dying trough coming down this week to FL.

[NDG]

The area is question now has a 1012 low attached to it .

Is a naked swirl this morning, it has not really moved much in 24 hrs, shallow steerings must be really weak, it is also experiencing some light easterly shear with some convection displaced well west. It will probably just die out eventually.

[Aric Dunn]

I have to say... that is a quite the vigorous Circ. in about 12 to 24hrs it should begin to move into a better environment. if that circ can hold together we could see some development.

[Gustywind]

I have to say... that is a quite the vigorous Circ. in about 12 to 24hrs it should begin to move into a better environment. if that circ can hold together we could see some development.

Ok thanks Aric, what does it mean by better for you? Do you think that we could deal with a very strong twave during the next 12, 24H?

[Aric Dunn]

I have to say... that is a quite the vigorous Circ. in about 12 to 24hrs it should begin to move into a better environment. if that circ can hold together we could see some development.

Ok thanks Aric, what does it mean by better for you? Do you think that we could deal with a very strong twave during the next 12, 24H?

just that in about a day or so the environment could improve enough to allow some convection to build. otherwise the circ will for sure open up to wave. Just have to keep watching it right now to see if any convection builds.

[StarmanHDB]

A very clear swirl, but any possible convection is firing about 350 miles west of that circulation. Does this swirl have any chance of really developing?

[northjaxpro]

A very clear swirl, but any possible convection is firing about 350 miles west of that circulation. Does this swirl have any chance of really developing?

Well, unless the easterly shear relaxes, that swirl has very little chance of sustaining itself.