Another Disturbance?

#1 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:45 am

Wow. There really seems to be an explosion of activity. Is that another disturbance popping up southwest of 94L? It certainly seems to have developed into a completely separate area.

This sudden activity spike is reminding me of 2005.

PauleinHouston · #2 Postby **PauleinHouston** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 8:55 am

That blob has held together since last night for sure. Doesn't look like anything of concern though, but one never knows these days :double:

. What interests me is the Caribbean wave that's interacting with the monsoon trough. Major convection firing down there, especially this morning and looks like it is lifting more W/NW than earlier. Probably slam into Nicaragua/Honduras, but think chances of a Caribbean brew are growing better and better as the month wears on.

#3 Postby **NDG** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:11 am

I am surprised that this area NE of Puerto Rico has not been declared 96L this morning. It has a nice cyclonic circulation and or sharp trough, near 21.6N & 62.5W
It has support from the CMC for possible weak development as it tracks westward, tracking very close to S FL by Wednesday.
ECMWF & GFS do not show development but show its vorticity to track towards FL/eastern GOM to at least bring the potential for heavy rains.

#4 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:43 am

This looks real interesting.

MIMIC-TPW is indicating a new area and CMC is on it.

850mb vorticity is elongated enough that a break off is possible.

Need to watch which way the anti-cyclone goes.

Could have implications for Bahamas & FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

#5 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:59 am

This has been an interesting feature the past couple of days. This energy broke off away from 94L back on Thursday and has held together rather well. This entity has steadily been moving W/SW the past 48 hours. As you all have pointed out, CMC has jumped on board for possible development. Definitely something to watch, especially if it can hold together the next couple of days. If we see a couple other reliable models jump aboard for this area to potentially develop, then we may see an invest declared.

floridasun78 · #6 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:08 pm

here loop of area we talking about it look like starting look better http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

#7 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:39 pm

I think this should be tagged 96L. Starting to see some more rotation on visible imagery:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see N winds on the west side and S winds on the E side. Gotta keep an eye out for west winds.

#8 Postby **scotto** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:30 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I think this should be tagged 96L. Starting to see some more rotation on visible imagery:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see N winds on the west side and S winds on the E side. Gotta keep an eye out for west winds.

I have been staring at this thing for quite some time and cannot see a rotation. Could you give me an idea of where you are seeing a spin. Thanks.

#9 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:37 pm

12Z CMC diggs it deeper and a possible ST heading toward Long Island

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#10 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:40 pm

scotto wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:I think this should be tagged 96L. Starting to see some more rotation on visible imagery:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see N winds on the west side and S winds on the E side. Gotta keep an eye out for west winds.

I have been staring at this thing for quite some time and cannot see a rotation. Could you give me an idea of where you are seeing a spin. Thanks.

Look near 22N 63.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

#11 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 4:02 pm

Something is developing maybe just above the surface.

Latest ASCAT doesn't show a surface low, but can see a well defined trough on that loop.

850mb vorticity continues to show this breaking off 94L.

#12 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 4:43 pm

GCANE wrote:Something is developing maybe just above the surface.

Latest ASCAT doesn't show a surface low, but can see a well defined trough on that loop.

850mb vorticity continues to show this breaking off 94L.

Could be a swirl starting to form.

#13 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 4:47 pm

Breaking off

http://64.19.142.15/tropic.ssec.wisc.ed ... wg8vor.GIF

#14 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 4:54 pm

Definitely seems worthy of being tagged invest 96L to me. GCANE, do you have any forecasts on this system?

#15 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 5:30 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Definitely seems worthy of being tagged invest 96L to me. GCANE, do you have any forecasts on this system?

Heard others say this is an ULL and not to worry.

12Z GFS and FIM showing nothing. Its only CMC.

I am not discounting it since the globals don't really have a stellar record for forecasting genesis.

That LL vorticity break off is very interesting.

Could have something if convection fires up - maybe at DMAX around sunrise.

#16 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 5:37 pm

Surface pressure is tending lower at the closest buoy

Station 41043 - South Western Atlantic

21.061 N, 64.966 W

Aric Dunn · #17 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 5:41 pm

Well the piece of energy that broke off from 94L is still heading wsw and looking at 1km visible, it does have a weak LLC, broad at the moment. but once it moves a little farther west the upper easterly shear decreases and we could see more convection build. the models still try to develop this area and it needs to be watched since its approaching the bahamas.

21.16° N 65.89° W

Aric Dunn · #18 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 6:01 pm

hehe.... did not know someone else started a topic on it... I mentioned it yesterday in the 94L thread that this was going to happen..

#19 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:45 am

There is still rotation evident at approximately 22.0N 67.0W. However, compared to yesterday, convection has waned thid morning.

I have not checked to see if there are other models besides CMC that may be picking up this feature. We will see if convection can try to build up again today. I am not anticipating much to happen with this feature, but it is still moving west toward the Bahamas and has to be monitored in case it flares up.

#20 Postby **NDG** » Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:45 am

Vis sat loop this morning still shows the weak vorticity north of P.R.
Very limited convection with it this morning.
Forecasted to track slowly WNW to NW over the next few days, convection may increase as the trough of low pressure digs down the eastern US over the next couple of days, helping to create some UL divergence on this surface feature.

This sucks having to watch a naked swirl this morning, the only thing interesting over the next 7 days or so that would be closest to the US which may not even affect FL afterall, lol.

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