Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

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maxintensity
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Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#1 Postby maxintensity » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:12 am

Just two short months from now The Streak will reach 6 years. This is the longest US major hurricane drought since September 1900-October 1906. If we can make it to November we can break the 1900 streak and then have our sights on the 1860-1869 Record Streak. What is most impressive about our streak is that we are in an era of enhanced hurricane activity. We've been extremely fortunate the last 5 hurricanes seasons and hopefully we can make it 6+.

Data Table http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist.htm
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#2 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:13 am

True, no major has made landfall in the U.S. since Wilma, but Ike in 2008 (technically a Cat 2, but the surge was more in line with a major) inflicted $29.5 billion in damage as a ‘non-major’. I guess the moral of that story is that you really don’t need a Cat 3 or higher to make a devastating impact.

Try telling these folks in Gilchrist, Texas that the U.S. has been 'lucky' not to be hit by a major since 2005!!!

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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#3 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:21 am

Or Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#4 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:29 am

Actually, 12 of the 30 costliest storms (unadjusted for inflation) have been a Cat 2 or less at landfall in the U.S....and 3 of those were in 2008 (Ike, Gustav, Dolly - for a combined cost of $35+ billion in damage).

After 2005, then 2004, the 2008 season ranks as the 3rd costliest season in U.S. history (unadjusted for inflation) for storm damage.

So, technically, we haven't been hit by a major since Wilma, but by all the indicators that really matter, we have seen very devastating storms since then.

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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#5 Postby maxintensity » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:14 am

Keep in mind the coastal development that has occured over the past 20 years when posting that costliest hurricane list. A cat 2 smashing into the coast would be more costly than a cat 3 in the same location 75 years ago. I don't think anyone would argue that a category 2 is stronger than a category 3. Ike was unique because it was so large and carried a great storm surge. Location plays a major part in storm surge and damage potential too just as we saw in New Orleans.
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#6 Postby Frank2 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 10:19 am

I'm not complaining - considering the state of the economy, that's a blessing...

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#7 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:32 pm

Put another way, the US hasn't had a hurricane strike since Ike in September 2008.
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#8 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:35 pm

Glad to see that my friends, God bless you :flag: hope that this trend will continue for 2011 :D :)
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Scorpion

#9 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:11 pm

Definitely due.. it will without a doubt happen this season
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#10 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:35 pm

jinftl wrote:True, no major has made landfall in the U.S. since Wilma, but Ike in 2008 (technically a Cat 2, but the surge was more in line with a major) inflicted $29.5 billion in damage as a ‘non-major’. I guess the moral of that story is that you really don’t need a Cat 3 or higher to make a devastating impact.

Try telling these folks in Gilchrist, Texas that the U.S. has been 'lucky' not to be hit by a major since 2005!!!

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I have seen major hurricanes that were small did not do damage like Ike did. We have been lucky that no hurricane made landfall since 2008, let alone a large one.
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#11 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:46 pm

In the past, there were two times when the costliest U.S. hurricane was one that made landfall as a Category 1.

Hurricane Diane in 1955 ($831 million)
Hurricane Agnes in 1972 ($2.1 billion)

Diane was surpassed by Betsy in 1965.
Agnes was surpassed by Frederic in 1979.
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#12 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:53 pm

2008 was also the beginning of the quiet solar cycle! Hmm >.>. These quiet numbers are staggering for the US hits since lol
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#13 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:48 am

I know some states are in a drought... But we all should be happy and relived that we have not had a hurricane landfall in so long. Look at the gas prices and todays economy. Mix that up with a major hurricane and.... dum de dum.
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#14 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 15, 2011 6:05 am

Image

Ike was an awful storm, but IMO every single home on that island should be rebuilt with a poured slab and on stilts.
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#15 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:15 pm

Yep, concrete is the way to go. The few homes that made it through Katrina were concrete. All those Cat-2 that caused massive damage were due to water. Andrew and Charley are the only two that come to mind that were nearly all wind damage. I know Wilma did a fair amout of water damage on the SW Florida coast. That is the problem with the SS scale, it only uses wind speed to rate a hurricane but it is the water in most cases that does the damage and kills people......MGC
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#16 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:41 am

maxintensity wrote:Just two short months from now The Streak will reach 6 years. This is the longest US major hurricane drought since September 1900-October 1906. If we can make it to November we can break the 1900 streak and then have our sights on the 1860-1869 Record Streak. What is most impressive about our streak is that we are in an era of enhanced hurricane activity. We've been extremely fortunate the last 5 hurricanes seasons and hopefully we can make it 6+.

Data Table http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist.htm

What I have been saying for a while now is that this darth of major hurricane landfalls on the US is not because of good luck, but really the principal of Equilibrium in weather which I'm a firm believer. Just take a look at the 2003, 2004, and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons and just how many major hurricane landfalls there were on the US coastline. Then right after a huge quiet period of the same thing. Is this a coincidence? Luck? A blessing? I say heck no. I literally see this everywhere in meteorology in many different forms and many do I'm sure. Instead of having major hurricane landfalls spaced out over time, they are just going to happen all at once like in 2005. I know for sure when it starts again, it's going to be brutal and in my numbers prediction for the Atlantic season I wrote that if no MH landfall occurs on the US mainland this year, 2012 will be one of the worst hurricane seasons ever just for that reason. If nothing in 2012, then 2013 is basically guaranteed to be the worst ever season. So its similar to a build up. I'm not saying that if the streak is broken this season it's going to be doomsday but I think there is a good chance more than one will hit because of the tropics trying to "restore" balance in a sense.

Scorpion wrote:Definitely due.. it will without a doubt happen this season

Everyone was thinking this last year, so it's incredible how the Atlantic has shown great restraint in producing a MH for the US amidst what was an extremely active hurricane season. If one doesn't want everything to happen all at once, this is very bad news.
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#17 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:52 am

I don't care what category you call it, but Ike was definitely a major hurricane here in Southeast Texas. It wiped out an entire city here in the Golden Triangle... Bridge City.
Not to mention all the other devastation around here...
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#18 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:58 am

Thank the Lord - considering the national debt, unemployment, oil and housing crises, imagine what it could be like if another Katrina or Andrew happened at this time...

So, be thankful nothing has come since then...
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#19 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:04 am

The US should take a book out of Japanese constuction. These houses are all built with concrete...I admit some of the ugliest places..but no need to worry if a major storm is headed your way. And these winds can withstand 198 mph winds ( Don't think I would want to test them though)
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Re: Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

#20 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:26 am

Blown Away wrote:http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/5333/800pxhurricaneikegilchr.jpg

Ike was an awful storm, but IMO every single home on that island should be rebuilt with a poured slab and on stilts.


Or maybe no one should be allowed to build homes on a barrier island that is at most 5 ft above sea level?
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