JB is pumped!

[OuterBanker]

OK, I'll admit it. I signed up with Weather Bell for a month. So far all you get is JB and Joe D'Aleo and a few models, not enough for me to continue I'm afraid. But, his musings are interesting and I do enjoy them. He seems to be indicating up to 5 US hits by Sept 15. Years 08, 99 55, 54, 64 85. One or two majors, etc. Patience dear hurricane lovers, they will come (that's my thought, not his).

Stay tuned for as the storm turns

[Hurricaneman]

JB is pumped, must have spent time in the gym

Seriously though I like JB believe the tropics are about to heat up, and if the models have any indication, the US could get a significant hit in the next couple of weeks

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

JB Twitters:

* Hurricane Frenzy may develop Aug 25-Sep 5. MJO shuts Sw pac, and leaves atlantic to carry load:
* Reminds of set up of burst in 2008 that lead to several landfalls in a row. coming right at the height of the season
* 4 of the 7 tropical storms so far are not of tropical origin but now the cap is about to come off and we will see the real deal come to life

[Scorpion]

When is JB not pumped? Always seems to be a hype machine. Not that I don't believe it, but I'd like to see some more indications before i get excited.

[psyclone]

all of this may be true but as of now...i'm bored. and it's not just the tropics. our usual interesting summertime convective pattern is mia too. but things should rip loose pretty soon in the tropics.

[hurricanetrack]

Been enjoying your presence on our site OuterBanker- we have all been watching almost every single day as the tropics slowly come to life and do their thing. It does seem to feel like it's about to come to life and in a big way. Lots of good resources out there and it's great to see folks using them and staying up to date. No surprises for sure!

[Stormcenter]

Why is it I recall reading the same type of "hype" about this time every season from him?
Well hello it is August 15 so I would l think things should start picking just
because of climatology not because JB says it will. JMHO

[ROCK]

Why is it I recall reading the same type of "hype" about this time every season from him?
Well hello it is August 15 so I would l think things should start picking just
because of climatology not because JB says it will. JMHO

SC come on....look at all the positives out there.. ..MJO, Heat Content, less SAL....a lot more than climo....

[angelwing]

I had to stop his twitter feeds to my phone, too many global warming/weight training tweets, I don't care about that junk, just give me current weather:)

[Stormcenter]

Oh I agree but what he is telling us is nothing we shouldn't expect.......we are nearing the peak of the season.
Things should be perking up in the upcoming days and weeks.

Why is it I recall reading the same type of "hype" about this time every season from him?
Well hello it is August 15 so I would l think things should start picking just
because of climatology not because JB says it will. JMHO

SC come on....look at all the positives out there.. ..MJO, Heat Content, less SAL....a lot more than climo....

[KatDaddy]

Yep Joe B is fired up!

The Science Guy at Chron.com (Houston Chronical) posted an excerpt of Joe B on his blog

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/08/he ... e-tropics/

Joe's take:

While I am supposed to stay restrained about such things my excitement is similar to the day after Thanksgiving this past year when I explained why there would be so much snow around for Christmas. While I can’t pin details on the donkey yet specifically, if by Sept. 15 five cyclones have hit the United States from tropical origin, 3 or 4 of them hurricanes, and 1 or 2 major, you can’t say the pattern recognition techniques that I set up for this season and now the modeling implications did not say this had merit. So while many will dwell on the ups and downs or run to run, what you are seeing evolving now may be as memorable as the frenzy in ’08. The years of bunching storms such as ’08, or ’99, or ’55 and ’54 even ’64 and ’85 are all in there now.

[xironman]

OK, I'll admit it. I signed up with Weather Bell for a month. So far all you get is JB and Joe D'Aleo and a few models, not enough for me to continue I'm afraid. But, his musings are interesting and I do enjoy them. He seems to be indicating up to 5 US hits by Sept 15. Years 08, 99 55, 54, 64 85. One or two majors, etc. Patience dear hurricane lovers, they will come (that's my thought, not his).

Stay tuned for as the storm turns

Hmm, I went to Weather Bell while it was free. JB was constantly harping on anyone that thought the summer of 2011 would be warm was crazy and that it would be very cool. So July 2011 in the continental US is the 4th warmest on record, in my area (DCA) this is the warmest month on record. I guess he must be a good tropical met, because the verification in the mid latitudes is not so good.

[OuterBanker]

KatDaddy, the post from the science guy is a direct quote from JB's site. I know that is off limits here (as it should be, copyrights you know). But it's okay if you can reference to a free domain site (someone else did it). Is that right?

[StormClouds63]

SAL > JB ... at least for the time being.

[lonelymike]

So how much does Weather Bell charge to hear the inspired rantings of JB?

[vbhoutex]

KatDaddy, the post from the science guy is a direct quote from JB's site. I know that is off limits here (as it should be, copyrights you know). But it's okay if you can reference to a free domain site (someone else did it). Is that right?

Honestly I am not sure of the legalities of the posting, but as I, a simple layman, understand it, since Katdaddy linked it from another article which is public domain it is ok. If someone knows better, please feel free to correct me.

[OuterBanker]

From his general release page (not copyrighted)

State College, PA - According to WeatherBELL Analytics Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, a frenzy of named storms resulting in multiple hurricanes is about to be unleashed between Aug 25 and mid-September, and could pose a threat to the US during the time period.



“Rarely and certainly not since 2008 when 6 named storms in a row struck the US do we see the Atlantic basin ready to become a focal point of the Earth’s tropical activity right at the height of the hurricane season,” said WeatherBELL Analytics Meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

Bastardi said that the overall global pattern favors well below-normal activity in the Southwest-Pacific over the next 3 weeks, which means nature must use the Atlantic and Eastern-Pacific basins to produce the bulk of the tropical activity.

“In a season of weak storms where 4 of 7 so far were non-tropical in origin, a frenzy of 5 to 7 true tropical storms are likely to emerge,” Bastardi said. “Almost all them are likely to reach hurricane status -- and 3 or 4 of them could impact the US coast. It appears that this very active period that is emerging could rival the 2008 frenzy of storms.”

The forecast period of heightened tropical activity from late August to mid-September was one of WeatherBELL Analytics' pre-season analogs.

While the Gulf of Mexico was the center point of activity in 2008, the current pattern suggests that the Gulf may represent the west side of the action this season, while New England is the Northeast-side, and Florida along with southeastern states appear to be the most ‘at risk’ for threats, according to Bastardi.

“The pattern appears ripe for a rapid fire series of storms in the coming weeks, and by mid-September the memories of the hot 2011 summer are likely to be replaced by headlines of tropical storms and hurricanes – as well as rumors of more storms to come,” Bastardi added, "The first of these storms could reach the US coast the last week of August."

[KatDaddy]

The Houston Chronical is a free domain news site which posted a Joe B excerpt.

[cycloneye]

I took out the political post and replys with the quote to that post. Please,refrain from politics.

[OuterBanker]

Thank you cycloneye.