Latest Nogaps

[Vortex]

This system developing N of DR should ne monitored closely by all from Florida and around the gulf coast. Either way this system will produce torrential rains for many people as it eventually gets entrained along the frontal boundary after a second landfall along the gulf coast then head N.E.



http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

[ameriwx2003]

Yes, I am not sure what to make of the NOGAPS SOLution??? It has been consistent in developing a Storm the last 3 or 4 runs but at least right now that area looks pretty weak.. Time will tell:):):)

[Steve H.]

Let's see if NOGAPS keeps it or loses it. NHC is losing interest, but there is low level turning in the cloud field. If this doesn't develop, I believe that Florida has been saved twice now by Hispaniola.

[wxman57]

Let's see if NOGAPS keeps it or loses it. NHC is losing interest, but there is low level turning in the cloud field. If this doesn't develop, I believe that Florida has been saved twice now by Hispaniola.

Steve,

Where are you seeing "low level turning"? I've been staring at a 1k visible loop with surface obs plotted and can see absolutely no evidence of any circulation anywhere, much less at the lower levels. It looks like just a tropical wave encountering very high wind shear. The shear may decrease with time, so it shouldn't be ignored, but this thing is days away from potential development (if ever). I'd give it maybe a 5-10% chance of becoming a storm at this point - about the same as any wave in the Caribbean/Gulf this time of year.