Irene - Northeast US Prep and Impact

[lonelymike]

Just wanted to start a topic for our friends in the NE to post what their local mets are thinking, emergency preps and other relevant information.

Have some friends in NY/NJ I will be thinking of and praying for this week.

[gates2u]

Here's praying for no more westward turns. We are located in Delmarva, about 45 minutes due East of Annapolis MD and not far from Dover DE.

Cheryl

[hurricaneCW]

I'm a little worried to be honest, I live near the central Jersey shore and never had such a major threat since I guess Isabel really.

[Stephanie]

..and Isabel wasn't major near us at the time and she skirted past us.

Well, TWC has an alert for Saturday that says possible hurricane conditions for Sunday. That's different from possible tropical storm conditions.

[sweetpea]

Was born and raised on the central jersey shore (Belmar), still have ALOT of family there including my older brother who lives in Belmar 3 blocks from the beach. I am so over this storm, worried about my dad in Puerto Rico the last few days, then was worried about it hitting Florida. Now I am worried about my husband and my families in New Jersey and Brooklyn. Will definitely be a long weekend. Please everyone stay safe and will keep everyone in my prayers.

[Battlebrick]

30 miles to the west of NYC here in NJ.. first possible TS storm experience shall be quite the adventure.

[Janie2006]

Going by the OP's opening post I'm thinking it's appropriate to post some of the things the local NWS offices in the region are thinking at the moment.

AFD from NWS New York City:

OUTER-BANDS FROM IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION IN ERNEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THINGS DETERIORATING FURTHER SUNDAY AS A
IRENE APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF
FROM SW TO NE AS IRENE PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST
NHC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE SIZE OF IRENE...DO NOT FOCUS JUST ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...AS ITS DANGEROUSLY STRONG WIND FIELD LIKELY
WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STORM. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS/RAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
DEFINITELY SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO
TAKE ANY ACTION THEN.

[mf_dolphin]

I stickied this and changed the title thread a bit

[Stephanie]

From Mt Holly NWsS Office:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LONGER RANGE, SINCE ERRORS COULD BE AROUND 200 MILES AS
IT CROSSES OUR AREA.

FIRST THINGS FIRST THOUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS. POCKETS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD BE SOME
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY. NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY, BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT
COULD CAUSE A FEW POP UP SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IRENE PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TARGET TIME FRAME FOR
IRENE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO THE TREND TO SHIFT THE TRACK
EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST. THE CURRENT NHC PROJECTION WOULD HAVE IRENE
APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES OFF THE NJ COAST SUNDAY MORNING. BUT THIS
IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE AND LATER FORECASTS COULD SHIFT THE TRACK
EITHER CLOSER TO THE COAST OR FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. SOME THINGS
TO CONSIDER --- THE POSSIBLE PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO START
ON SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF ONSHORE WINDS DRIVE INCREASING AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEARING 2.0-2.5 INCHES/ INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW SLOWING SOME INLAND POSSIBLY AIDING IN
CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN. IN ADDITION, IF THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF OF OUR COAST THEN
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST MAY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE RAIN SHIELD.
THERE COULD BE PLENTY OF WIND, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST MAY BE CLOSER
TO THE COAST BUT THIS AGAIN IS TIED TO THE ACTUAL TRACK. LOTS TO
FACTOR IN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS INCLUDING SQUALLY WEATHER ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING,
STRONG WINDS, RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SEAS. THE ONE THING THAT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT IS THAT IRENE WILL BE MOVING FASTER AS IT
REACHES OUR LATITUDE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED OUR POPS AND WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO SHOW THIS FASTER MOVEMENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

[Stephanie]

I stickied this and changed the title thread a bit

Thanks Marshall!

[lonelymike]

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE

Did you ever think you would see that ever posted for NYC area Amazing.

BTW does anybody here remember Hurricane Gloria I believe which was the last storm to impact the NY area. If so could you post your experiences? Might give others some tips.

[Stephanie]

Office of Emergency Management websites:

http://www.ready.nj.gov

http://www.dema.delaware.gov

http://www.dhses.ny.gov

http://www.mema.state.md.us/MEMA/index.jsp

http://www.ct.gov/demhs/site/default.asp

PLEASE add any additional links for the other states and any other relevant information.

[Janie2006]

Maine EMA:

http://www.maine.gov/MEMA/

Connecticut EMA:

http://www.ct.gov/demhs/site/default.asp

One thing to keep in mind, and this may be premature, but once the proper rainbands from Irene move in it's really too late to start or be in the middle of storm preparations. Do it now. Once those heavy bands move in they will drag the stronger winds down to the surface, and the wind just gets stronger from there. This effect is heavily dependent on the eventual track of Irene.

[Stephanie]

Massachusetts:

http://www.mass.gov

Rhode Island:

http://www.dem.ri.gov

[StormingB81]

I went on the news site from where I used to live in CT and the news stationed right on top already has a whole section dedicated to Hurricane Irene..

[Stephanie]

I went on the news site from where I used to live in CT and the news stationed right on top already has a whole section dedicated to Hurricane Irene..

As well they should.

Philadelphia WPHL Ch. 17 started right off with Irene and the New Jersey shore.

[Janie2006]

WABC's (NYC) interactive website:

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/index

Good source of local news stories concerning Irene

[baygirl_1]

Thanks for the info y'all. I'm sharing it with relatives who live on Long Island. I hope most people in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast do not share their attitude about Irene: we never get those here-- she'll turn! Praying everyone realizes this is serious.

[angelwing]

Got notice here at the base that they are going to continue monitoring the situation and they are going to go over plans.
I may not be going to work Monday so I thank all of you for the info, right now I am worried about how bad the winds will be, just moved to this new house in Sept and this will be a first for me there. I know Philly will probably get hit so I may not be going to work Monday night, depending.

Did some food shopping last night in Lansdale and already noticed some french toast items being low.

We are supposed to get a severe t-storm later today and my shed is already on mushy ground, I expect it to start sinking if we get all of this rain this weekend, its at the bottom of a hill and on 4 feet of stone and the ground in front of it is very muddy now.

[Stephanie]

Thanks for the info y'all. I'm sharing it with relatives who live on Long Island. I hope most people in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast do not share their attitude about Irene: we never get those here-- she'll turn! Praying everyone realizes this is serious.

So am I. I'm wondering if perhaps the earthquake we felt along the East Coast may have been the wake up call - at least I'm hoping. We never get anything like that around here either. It may have been a mixed blessing.