Total ACE from Katia
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Total ACE from Katia
Models hint at a long track storm. What will be the systems final ACE when its all said and done?
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: To edit title of thread and poll
Reason: To edit title of thread and poll
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Extratropical94
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Re: Total ACE from Tropical Depression 12
26.
Just rolled two dices
Just rolled two dices
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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cycloneye
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Re: Total ACE from Tropical Depression 12
And the numbers start to pile up. I voted between 20-30.
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I'll go with 30-40, I see no reason why Katia won't be a major down the road and with probably 10-12 days as a TC that should be plenty of time to whack out a decent amount of ACE.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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dwsqos2
Re: Total ACE from Katia
20-30; probably the lower end of that scale as well; the 12Z Euro depressed me.
Actually, with the track on the 12Z Euro, 10-20 might be more reasonable; yuck.
Actually, with the track on the 12Z Euro, 10-20 might be more reasonable; yuck.
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I'd say VERY small chance of it being below 20 dwsqos2, its already upto 50kts and even at that pace it'll be pulling in 1 unit a day...and thats before strengthening which is looking very probable.
25-35 untis probably the range I'd estimate at the moment.
ECM is rather too weak with Katia, where its at now is where the ECM expected it to be between 36-48hrs time so for once not sure I'd taker the ECM too literally, at least from a strength point of view.
25-35 untis probably the range I'd estimate at the moment.
ECM is rather too weak with Katia, where its at now is where the ECM expected it to be between 36-48hrs time so for once not sure I'd taker the ECM too literally, at least from a strength point of view.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: Total ACE from Katia
ACE of 30-40 because Cape Verde storms often have become major hurricanes and live long, so high ACE.
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dwsqos2
Re: Total ACE from Katia
I'm still not optimistic about Katia generating lots of ACE; the Euro's handling of the upper trough concerns me. SHIPS isn't exactly enthusiastic either.
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Extratropical94
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The final ACE from Katia is 24.8375, as it became post-tropical at 11am EDT / 15Z.
That being said the majority was right with guessing 20-30 ACE units.
And my dices did a good job as well, only 1.1625 units off.
That being said the majority was right with guessing 20-30 ACE units.
And my dices did a good job as well, only 1.1625 units off.
Extratropical94 wrote:26.
Just rolled two dices
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel