September Hurricane Potential Dates

[FireRat]

Hello everyone

There's something I've been working on for several years now that I wanted share on here with you:

I'm currently testing a method for finding potential natural disaster dates, including hurricane/typhoon disaster dates and wanted to share the September ones on here in case they match up with any future hurricane/typhoon this month. The dates I post here pertain to hurricane IMPACTS, meaning they're good candidate days for not only having a named storm, but more importantly a damaging landfall (like Irene for instance). I am using a potpourri of elements, a combination of meteorology, history, and other more esoterical methods, into picking certain dates of the calendar as potential natural disaster dates. Since it's September, I believe the ones of this month would most likely manifest as Hurricanes. This is what I found:

September 3-4, September 6:. This time frame may cover one event, Sept. 4th and 6th are the riskier dates. TD 12 might be the player for this time frame, so the Leewards and Puerto Rico, then Bahamas should pay attention to the developing storm.

September 9: Good candidate landfall date for a hurricane or typhoon, may be related to the September 3rd-6th event.

September 13th and 15th: Another couple of risk dates for a hurricane or typhoon landfall event. I'm leaning more toward this being in the Atlantic/Caribbean as this is right near the Peak of the Atlantic Season.

September 18th: Strong candidate date for serious hurricane/typhoon landfall, may be related to the September 13th-15th event.

September 22nd: Very strong date that could see a hurricane/typhoon landfall and the results could be severe.

September 26-27: Extremely risky time period, we could see a major hurricane/typhoon landfall on these two dates.

*Of the Above time frames, I believe TWO of them will fulfill, meaning there could be important events taking place during any two of the above time periods. The Dates that concern me most are: September 4, 9, 15, 18, 22 and 27.*

Overall I think September is going to be busier than normal, I hope this post is of help in some way. I figured it fits in this category as the "active storms" section is the one that one should really seek for NHC oriented analysis and Information, as well as up to the minute updates on storms. My theory is that hurricanes, typhoons and other type of natural disasters strike on specific dates that fall under a very complex pattern. If models pick up on a landfall during any of the above mentioned dates, my theory would suggest that such a scenario would be much likelier to occur and that such models should be taken more seriously than usual. It will be interesting to see if the models pick up on any of the above dates of mention.

Thanks for reading,
FireRat

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneBrain]

September 13, 2007 and 2008 Humberto and Ike hit SETX. Both on my birthday.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Family member traveling to DR on September 24th.

Hurricane Jeane September 21-24, 2004

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE SOURCE
Haiti 300,000 homeless MINUSTAH* – September 23
Grenada 85,000 to 90,000 people affected USAID/DART – September 16
Jamaica 18,000 people displaced ODPEM† – September 16
Bahamas 800 people displaced USAID/DART – September 14
Dominican Republic Nearly 38,000 people displaced OCHA‡ – September 21

Total USAID/OFDA Humanitarian Assistance to the Caribbean..................................................................$3,881,602

[b]Hurricane Flossy[[/b]1956 originated from a tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific Ocean and moved across Central America into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression on September 21, which became a tropical storm on September 22 and a hurricane on September 23. The hurricane peaked with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (150 km/h) before it struck the central Gulf coast of the United States as a Category 1 hurricane on September 24, and evolved into an extratropical cyclone on September 25.[1] It was the first hurricane to affect oil refining in the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical cyclone led to flooding in New Orleans, and broke a drought across the eastern United States. The death toll was 15, and total damages reached US$24.8 million (1956 dollars)

Furacão do Texas de 1941[/b]http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/231/205px1941atlantichurric.png/]

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[b]Hurricane Inez slams into the islands of the Caribbean, killing hundreds of people, on this day in 1966. The storm left death and destruction in its wake from Guadeloupe to Mexico over the course of its nearly three-week run. Inez was the most destructive hurricane of the 1966 storm season.

On September 24,2966 Inez [/color]was a Category 2 hurricane when it crashed into the island of Guadeloupe. The torrential rains accompanying the storm caused mudslides and floods all over the island. Twenty-three people lost their lives, and the survivors were faced with the near-total loss of the island's banana crop.

By September 28, Inez had strengthened and hit the island of Hispaniola with 140-mile-per-hour sustained winds. In the Dominican Republic, the towns of Duverge and Oriedo were totally destroyed; only the town halls in each village were spared. In Haiti, many people lost their lives in flash floods in the mountains that literally washed away the victims.


Hurricane Florence - September 24-28, 1953
A tropical wave crossed the Caribbean Sea from September 21st through 23rd. The system organized
southeast of Jamaica, becoming a hurricane as it moved through the Yucatan Channel on the 24th. Florence
intensified into a major hurricane on the 25th, before cooler air and cool waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico
led to a weakening trend. The system moved ashore the Florida panhandle as a minor hurricane between Fort
Walton Beach and Panama City Beach, Florida before becoming an extratropical cyclone, which sped east-
northeast out to sea.

HURRICANE IVAN SEPTEMBER 2 - 24, 2004


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[FireRat]

Thanks WeatherLovingDoc for the history posts
Goes to show we're entering the peak season. I hope your family member will be safe during the trip, best of wishes!

HurricaneBrain, your birthday is just 2 days from the peak date 9/11, it's no wonder you love weather!

On a more serious note, believe it or not, an even worse hurricane hit on September 13: September 13, 1928 San Felipe in Puerto Rico...Category 5.
That one crushed PR then 3 days later went on to hit Palm Beach, FL and caused Lake Okeechobee to overflow, drowning 2,500.

[FireRat]

Future Lee in the Gulf could also be a player during the September 3rd,4th, and 6th dates. This would probably be a dangerous situation IMO if future Lee were to ramp up fast and hit land on 9/4 or 9/6. Katia meanwhile is forecast to track north of the islands on these days as well. Things are about to get very interesting in the tropics, no surprise as its the heart of the season!

Well once again, this post has the disclaimer attached to the head post....so whatever happens, listen to the NHC for any future advisories and forecast impacts.

FireRat.

[FireRat]

Another one to watch: 95L

This could be a player for September 9 and the 13th-15th, maybe a Caribbean cruiser or island threat on the 9th. Katia looks like it'll miss land, so my attention turns to this new one, maybe Maria or Nate in the coming days?

[surfer_dude]

Have you seen the number 23?

[FireRat]

Yeah surfer_dude, it was pretty crazy

It's funny you asked because I just rented it last month.

[surfer_dude]

What sort of algorithm did you use?

[brunota2003]

Of course my 21st birthday has to have a strong risk of a significant impact, right? Just like my 13th birthday in 2003...New York better look out then! My 13th birthday had a new inlet cut in the outerbanks, along with portions of the NE without power for 2+ weeks starting that night/the following day.

[FireRat]

Surfer_dude,

The algorithm was done by jotting down many (as many possible) disaster dates in history and analyzing their numerology and I-Ching setup. Numerology studies numbers, their esoteric characteristics and patterns. The I-Ching is an important concept in Chinese Astrology in which three characters define each and every day, month and year. To put it concisely, what I did was utilize these two parameters and discovered that the grand majority of natural disasters struck on dates that met specific Numerology and I-Ching criteria, accounting for roughly 95 percent of world disasters, including hurricanes and earthquakes. Interestingly enough, these "risk dates" are far less common than "normal" dates, yet accounted for the majority of moderate severity disasters, and all of the major disasters throughout history.

The pattern is quite complex as almost every given day is different than the rest, just to give you an idea...in the I-Ching, for any given date there exists 216,000 possible combinations of which only a small fraction of them would suggest a date being risky for disaster. This happens due to a negative combination. Add to that the complex Numerology algorithm that each and every day is ruled by 4 specific numbers....also yielding hundreds of combinations of which again, only a small fraction of them yield risk for disaster.

It may be that planet Earth has some type of unseen natural disaster timing pattern that can only be tracked through these ancient "mystical" methods as they correlate. Then again, not every "risk date" brings something.....but when something does happen, it's almost always on a such date. I'd say about 1/5 of disaster risk dates manifest with natural disasters ranging from moderate to catastrophic, meaning that on a month like this I believe about two of the dates mentioned at the head this thread will bring something. Lee's nasty floods in the south on 9/3-9/4 might be considered a moderate disaster, so that may leave one or even two more events possible for the remaining risk dates of this month.

Now that I see the cone for TD 14, the 9th of September comes to mind as perhaps a hit on the Virgin Islands or the Leewards. Puerto Rico might luck out since the storm is predicted to be at their longitude on 9/10-9/11. By then the storm could be south or north of them, heading west until its next target on 9/13 and then 9/15. It will be interesting to see exactly how future Maria or Nate will come into play in the days ahead.

Now just a reminder that this is my personal opinion and method, for official meteorological advice please refer to the NHC or other professional weather organization. Here's the disclaimer one more time just in case:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[FireRat]

Gotta add Nate to the list of players. He's another one that could do something Sept. 9th or even the 13th if he stalls out for a while. Maria is chugging along fast and is accelerating its Leeward islands landfall to 9/9 now, which tells me we gotta watch this one IMO. Given the current guidance by the models she should curve NE of Puerto Rico and islands to the west like the South Bahamas...but the cone only goes out to September 12. I would caution to monitor this one in the long run as the dates 9/13 and 9/15 could involve Maria. It's not set in stone, but the dates suggest the chance the storm bends west again and hits Bahamas/Florida on 9/13 and someone either in the Gulf or the Carolinas on 9/15. Of course this is just basing it on my dates to watch to give some hints at possible scenarios. This is by no means a wishcast, please again refer to the NHC for updates on the storm's foreseeable future.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[FireRat]

Hard to ignore Nate right now...the models are shifting north to a landfall on 9/13 in the Louisiana area according to what I saw in the models thread just now. This is concerning because of the "timing", do believe it! With the October-like frontal pattern here in Florida and the South, this makes more sense than a Mexico storm, so if the models keep trending towards the northern Gulf coast...better watch Nate closely IMO.

Meanwhile Maria is struggling and although it will cross the Leewards late on the 9th...picking any type of intensity is hard at the moment, it could be anything from an open wave to a weak hurricane if it got its act together soon. September 9 might not be too bad if Maria keeps being weak, on another note and slightly off topic...9/9 is the kind of date I personally believe has more of an earthquake risk, yet hurricane/typhoon is also possible.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[FireRat]

Well, Nate was a bust for the period concerning 9/9 and 9/13....he landfalls in Mexico as a weakling on 9/11. Maria is still out there but only managed to slightly impact the northern Leewards late on 9/9 and 9/10 thankfully without any consequence. 9/13 and 9/15 are still ahead, but the risk of hurricane might have to wait. Models do not support any kind of danger for these two dates, so if a place were to get nailed hard, it might only be Newfoundland if it were to get Maria on the 15th. Bermuda has a bit of a chance too, but it shouldn't be serious.

The models thread is showing signs of something coming for the period 9/18-9/24 according to Larrywx. I agree with him as this will coincide with two more dangerous days than the previous September dates...the 18th and especially the 22nd. The risk dates for this month show an upward surge in activity that peaks on 9/22 and 9/27. I can only say enjoy the current lull in activity as things might really ramp up in the coming weeks.

FireRat.

[beoumont]

Numerology, astrology, esotericology: all about equally efficient methods of long range hurricane forecasting. Pretty much the same methods the Farmers' Almanack uses.

As retired NHC forecaster Miles Lawrence (one of the best) often noted: "We here at the NHC are 90% hurricane plotters, 10% forecaster."

[WeatherGuesser]

Numerology, astrology, esotericology: all about equally efficient methods of long range hurricane forecasting.

About equal to the Magic 8 Ball.

[randge]

"Ask your question again."

[FireRat]

Got word severe flooding is going on today in Puerto Rico due to Maria. Definitely not a hurricane impact nor a direct impact but a still dangerous indirect "tail whip" impact. There may be some deadly landslides there today if the rains continue.


Haha, I remember those 8 balls!

[FireRat]

Typhoon Roke forecast to hit Japan on 9/21, pretty close to the 22nd of sept. That storm needs attention.
Nothing happened on the 18th regarding hurricanes, but there was a deadly earthquake in India on that day.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic is nearly dead.

[FireRat]

A bit off topic considering this is a hurricane/typhoon site:

I'm really starting to think major earthquakes could strike on 9/22 and 9/27. Many of this month's risk dates turned out being significant earthquake days. Check this out:

dates and magnitudes:

9/4 7.0 earthquake in Vanuatu
9/6 6.6 quake in northern Sumatra, Indonesia......Causes 3 deaths.
9/9 6.7 earthquake in Vancouver
9/13 6.2 quake in New Guinea
9/15 7.3 quake in Fiji
9/18 6.9 earthquake in northeast India and Nepal......Deadly and destructive event with 75 deaths and still rising.

9/22? This is a bit concerning, hopefully nothing happens on these remaining dates regarding these "other types" of
9/26-27? natural disasters.