Interesting

[Rainband]

AGXX40 KNHC 271839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HECTIC DAY WITH MODEL PROBLEMS IN WASHINGTON.

MORNING FORECAST WAS PURELY A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF NOGAPS
0000 UTC SOLN FROM LAST EVENING... KEEPING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AND HEDGING IT WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF ON SUN. NOW WITH THE MODEL PROBLEMS BEING RESOLVED... AND
1200 UTC DATA AVAILABLE... TIMING OF TROUGH TO CHANGE IN
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN
SIMILAR TO EARLIER FORECAST... REASONING FOR SPEED UP IN TIMING
IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN CANADIAN MODEL AND GFS ON THE
LOCATION OF TROUGH IN THE NE GULF ON SAT. ONE OUTLIER NOGAPS...
CONTINUES TO SPIN UP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRI NIGHT. THIS APPEARS EXTREMELY
UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ALONG BROAD TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...
NOGAPS SOLUTION OF CLOSED CIRCULATION WOULD TEND TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
COAST...SO OPTING NOW FOR TIMING OF WAVE AS BASED ON CONSENSUS
OF THE OTHER THREE MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. SIMILARLY ETA TRIES
TO DEVELOP AN 850 MB VORTEX NEAR 24N72W BY TONIGHT... AND SLOWLY
ROLL IT WESTWARD APPROACHING THE S FLORIDA COAST BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ETA DEVELOPS A HEALTHY VORTEX IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. ONLY OTHER MODEL EVEN SLIGHTLY HINTING AT THIS
SCENARIO IS THE CANADIAN MODEL AND EVEN IT IS NOT TOO CONVINCING.

ONE ADDITIONAL ITEM OF INTEREST IS GFS INSISTENCE UPON RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 24N70W BY THU
MORNING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL ATTEMPTING TO
DO THIS AND APPEARS QUITE UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE RAPID RATE AT
WHICH THE MODEL SPINS UP THE VORTICITY CENTER.

OUTLOOK...
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF ON SAT SHOULD MOVE WELL
INLAND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY MON.
LIGHT WIND AND SMOOTH SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
EASTERN GULF SUN AND MON.

ETA...NOGAPS...AND GFS ALL INDICATING SOME TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH WELL E OF THE OFFSHORE AREAS NEAR 44W
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...COULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHTER WINDS S OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS BY SUN.

WARNINGS...
NONE.

FORECASTER HOLWEG