Tropical wave passing 50W

[Fego]

Interestingly there is a weak circulation crossing south of CV and interacting with the ITCZ. September began and IMHO deserves to keep an eye on it.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... AY=Single&

[Fego]

06Z TAFB shows a 1010 mb Low.


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[HurricaneFan]

So what are the models saying in terms of track and intensity?

[Hurricanehink]

Let's go Nate!

[Aric Dunn]

was going to start a thread on this since convection is finally on the increase. it already has a closed wind field just needs more convection. but it should be moving into a much better environment tomorrow. and there is model support. if convection continues to increase tonight then an invest will likely come tomorrow .

[HurricaneFan]

was going to start a thread on this since convection is finally on the increase. it already has a closed wind field just needs more convection. but it should be moving into a much better environment tomorrow. and there is model support. if convection continues to increase tonight then an invest will likely come tomorrow .

So does it look like it will make it to the Caribbean unlike Katia?How strong is it expected to be?
You did a great job putting all the models in a cone for the wave that became Irene,it really helped to give a general idea of the track from so far out.Is it possible for you to do that with this Tropical Wave?
The way you kept track of the center(or centers:)) of Irene was very spot on.

[bexar]

considering what happened with TD10 and now Katia, I wouldn't count on much with this one.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Florida1118]

considering what happened with TD10 and now Katia, I wouldn't count on much with this one.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Doesnt mean it wont develop later though

[abajan]

Our weather presenter on this evening's newscast stated that our met office is monitoring it for signs of development.

[Ola]

From the NWS discussion today:

AFTER KATIA CLEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TUTTS/TROUGH
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE ATLC TO BE REPLACED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONES ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM TAKING THE NORTHERN
ROUTE. WHILE WE ARE MORE THAN LIKELY TO DODGE THE BULLET WITH
KATIA THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR FUTURE STORMS IN THE NEXT 7-14
DAYS.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

From the NWS discussion today:

AFTER KATIA CLEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TUTTS/TROUGH
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE ATLC TO BE REPLACED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONES ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM TAKING THE NORTHERN
ROUTE. WHILE WE ARE MORE THAN LIKELY TO DODGE THE BULLET WITH
KATIA THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR FUTURE STORMS IN THE NEXT 7-14
DAYS.

In the same line meteorologist Joe Bastardi tweeted "back to the weather. pattern is reason Katia trends west. Typhoon hit in Japan supports big bermuda hi in week, blocks storm
from going out" and "Why? wpac weather forces changes in n hemisphere that "teleconnect"to western atlantic ridge, ohio valley trough"

Interesting days ahead...

[Patrick99]

"From the NWS discussion today:

AFTER KATIA CLEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TUTTS/TROUGH
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE ATLC TO BE REPLACED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONES ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM TAKING THE NORTHERN
ROUTE. WHILE WE ARE MORE THAN LIKELY TO DODGE THE BULLET WITH
KATIA THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR FUTURE STORMS IN THE NEXT 7-14
DAYS."

Interesting. Could have implications for Florida as well as PR. Most of our hits/near-hits from the east have very clearly come in September....and we've seen strong troughs in August get replaced by strong ridging in September many years.

[hurricanebuoy]

Too bad the M storm is a female, would have been perfect to have named this one Marvin. Ok back on subject

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 020553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N24W...TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N27W...TO 7N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 21W-27W...AND FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 28W-31W.

[bigdan35]

I say watch the area at 10n 35w it may get something going in a few days.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N28W TO 1012 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 10N30W MOVING WNW AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE LOW
WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120-180 NM
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS COINCIDENT WITH A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

[Kohlecane]

Im gpoing on the Whim Here, i think we will start getting very Active in up coming weeks, and this could be a TC to keep an Eye on, anyone smell that Greek Alpha Getting Closer

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N30W TO A 1011 MB LOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 10N32W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES ALIGN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM WEST
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[northjaxpro]

NHC now analyzes a 1010 mb tropical Low near 11N 33W, moving W-NW at 15 kts on the 8 a.m. TWD.

[Kohlecane]

Might be a Ghost Storm