My Forecast for TD10

[DelStormLover]

NOTICE:THIS FORECAST IS NOT OFFICIAL AND IS INTENDED FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FORECAST FROM THE NHC FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.60 NORTH,31.52 WEST OR ABOUT 3145 MILES FROM LEWES, DELAWARE. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS. THE STORM IS FORECASTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY AUGUST 29TH.
THE STORM IS FORECASTED TO TAKE A TRACK TO THE NNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT A POSITION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY ABOUT SEPTEMBER 5TH OR 6TH. THIS STORM COULD BE A THREAT TO THE EAST COAST BY THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
THE STORM BEARS A FEW SIMILARITY'S TO HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960, AND HURRICANE GORGES IN 1998.
RESIDENTS FROM FLORIDA TO NEW JERSEY SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STORM WILL CURVE OUT TO SEA. I BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO HAS ABOUT 20% CHANCE OF HAPPENING.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DEFINITIVELY TELL,BUT IF THE STORM DOES APPROACH THE EAST COAST, IT COULD TAKE THE TRADITIONAL TRACK OF HUGGING THE COAST, AND THEN CURVING OUT TO SEA WHEN IT REACHES CAPE HATTERAS,NORTH CAROLINA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND AMOUNT OF TIME BEFORE THE STORM EVEN APPROACHES THE EAST COAST, I GIVE THIS SCENARIO A 15% CHANCE OF HAPPENING.


THE NEXT FORECAST BY ME WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME TOMORROW.

AGAIN, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST(S) FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.

THAT IS ALL.

[Rainband]

Thanks for your thoughts!!

[wxman57]

What about the other 65%? If it has a 20% chance of recurving out to sea, and a 15% chance of affecting the east U.S. coast, then there is a 65% of it doing something else. About all that is left is it for to either dissipate or move into the Gulf. The question is, how do those two percentages compare?

[DelStormLover]

The other 65% is equaly divided between the storm going into the GOM,or affecting the eintire east coast directly, ala Donna(1960)

[Agua]

So, the two possibilities which in your own assignement of likelihood (32.5%) are the most likely are not mentioned in your forecast, but the two least likely scenarios (15% and 20%) are discussed? I'm confused.

[DelStormLover]

I Mentioned the possibilitys i thought were most fesable...........the donna like track option is more of a personal wnat than a feasable idea.

[DelStormLover]

Here are the maps of the tracks that i posted
Firstly,The hugging the coast donna-like track map (my personal favorite):
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=104695

[DelStormLover]

Now the curving out to sea at hatters track:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=104699