WHY has there only been two hurricanes so far?

[HurricaneRyan]

At first I thought Emily would be the first hurricane, then Gert, then possibly Harvey, and then I was correct with Irene. I knew Katia would become a Hurricane, and Maria was one I saw as becoming a hurricane too and Nate, but both of those storms literally can't get there acts together.

Why is it that it's been SO active and yet barely any Hurricanes? It's really driving me insane because hurricanes are a lot more interesting to track than tropical storms, especially since we've had WAY too many weak storms.

Katia was probably the coolest storm to track, and Irene...even if caused a lot of damage, was cool too. I mean, you get awesome satellite images and and you see the storm evolve into whatever they try to be and you don't really get that with Tropical Storms.

Active season - yes.
Hurricane active - We're basically in the anorexia stage.

[Cyclenall]

We are about average right now in terms of number of hurricanes. Just compare it to what the average is at this time of year (the climatological peak of hurricane season) and last year and this year doesn't seem all that odd. The other thing to note is like you wrote, various tropical storms this season had the chance to become a hurricane (Arlene, Emily, Gert, Harvey, Maria?, Nate?) but choose not to .

[bg1]

Conditions aren't like 04-05 where many storms strengthened, it's sort of like 07 or 09 in this sense. Something has to be favorable enough for the Atlantic to rival 05 in number of storms, but the atmosphere does not support strengthening (dry air, pockets of wind shear) but this is just my opinion.

[dixiebreeze]

Chill-- . We have a long way to go. This is just Sept. 10 and the season doesn't end 'till Nov. 30.

[Ptarmigan]

This season reminds me of 2007 or 1936. Many storms, but not many hurricanes. So far, we have two major hurricanes, which is average.

1936


2007


1936 was Neutral to La Nina, whole 2007 was La Nina. Of course ENSO data is not accurate before 1950.
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

[lonelymike]

One of the Pro Mets posted a graphic showing that vertical instability is below normal. Might explain some of it.

[bexar]

dry air and shear is just too high in almost all places in atlantic

[Duddy]

[HurrMark]

Keep in mind that Nate could (perhaps is likely to) become a hurricane before landfall and Maria has a fighting chance as well...especially given the increase in organization. So it is quite possible we could still have four hurricanes, which is still low for 14 storms...but not as extreme as two.

[gatorcane]

Given the reemergence of la Nina, I think we will see some crank out in the Caribbean before all is said and done. I am thinking October will be interesting

[FireRat]

Yeah I know Gator, October can be a terrible month in La Nina's and after faring well last October we might not luck out as much during "round two".

Meanwhile, 1936 was also on my mind as far as low-end storms but great in number. Still, even that season bore more hurricanes (many C1's). If this season had played out in 1936, we'd probably have only around 8 storms listed.

[rainstorm]

we have had 2 seasons in a row where we had la nina or neutral and both seasons have been lackluster at best. just goes to show la nina may be overblown as a forecast tool. the really standout thing this season and last season is that the GOM is having a really hard time producing a well developed hurricane.

[hcane27]

I am not convinced that the Nina is a bad tool for roecasting , if it is used for the proper forecast. Using it to predict numbers appears to work fairly well , but using it to predict strength is not necessarily the proper use. Just saying that we could use one tool for numbers , one for steering , snd yet another for strength.

[hcane27]

I am not convinced that the Nina is a bad tool for roecasting , if it is used for the proper forecast. Using it to predict numbers appears to work fairly well , but using it to predict strength is not necessarily the proper use. Just saying that we could use one tool for numbers , one for steering , snd yet another for strength.

[rainstorm]

its been a remarkable season. i think we are at 14/2/1. not sure if katia made it to major as i lost interest. that tells me conditions across the atlantic, gom/carib have been horrid despite what forecasters were saying in preseason forecasts. it just brings into focus ENSO isnt everything, nor are above normal atlantic SST's. el nino seasons have had better quality than this season.

*14/2/2. katia did make it to a major.

[Blown Away]

Patience, we are just past half way! Maria will likely making hurricane status and IMO we will see 4 more canes and 2 will be major before the end.

[Blinhart]

While I'm relieved that we have only had 2 hurricanes this year so far, I am afraid when the lid does come off this boiling pot in the GOM and western Carribean whether this season or next or whenever we will have storms that will be massive in size and strength. The laws of averages will work itself out sooner or later and we will have large amounts of damage on the likes of Andrew, Lilly, Katrina, Hugo and storms like that. I'm not saying it will happen, that is just my opinion. And I will not say where they will go either.

[rainstorm]

Patience, we are just past half way! Maria will likely making hurricane status and IMO we will see 4 more canes and 2 will be major before the end.

one comical bad sign is its the peak of the season and JB has quit tweeting about the tropics. he is talking about the cold weather coming. i feel the record breaking cold on the way will decide the rest of the season. if the high bringing the cold locks in over the NW ATL and doesnt budge through oct then interesting storms will develop. if however, this high just moves out followed by yet another east coast trough, the season will come to an early end save a few more slop storms.

[x-y-no]

[I]f the high bringing the cold locks in over the NW ATL and doesnt budge through oct then interesting storms will develop. if however, this high just moves out followed by yet another east coast trough, the season will come to an early end save a few more slop storms.

Remember, Wilma rode through here on the wings of a massive trough. Historically, that's actually a pretty common late-season scenario.

[rainstorm]

[I]f the high bringing the cold locks in over the NW ATL and doesnt budge through oct then interesting storms will develop. if however, this high just moves out followed by yet another east coast trough, the season will come to an early end save a few more slop storms.

Remember, Wilma rode through here on the wings of a massive trough. Historically, that's actually a pretty common late-season scenario.

yes, but look at the set up before that. wilma sat in the west carib and had time to develop because of a huge stationary high to its north. also gave it perfect conditions to develop.