Low Pressure WSW of Cape Verde (Is Invest 98L)

[drezee]

Buoys indicate NW winds to the SW of the convection. It looks about 12N 22W...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[OURAGAN]

I agree with you:

[tolakram]

Check out the latest shear analysis:

copied:


Almost no favorable areas for tropical development at the moment.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Favorable where this low is.

[wxman57]

There's a weak low there, but it's not developing. We may not see another storm develop until next week.

[cycloneye]

This is what they say at the 2 PM TWD.

A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 11N20W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[drezee]

Invest soon???

[CrazyC83]

Not going to develop with that wall of shear ahead of it. That ULL sure dug way down...

[CrazyC83]

There's a weak low there, but it's not developing. We may not see another storm develop until next week.

Agreed I think we have hit a lull in the season. The Caribbean still looks prime though...and should the shear kick out of the Gulf, that could be big too.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[AdamFirst]

Well, so much for that.

[brunota2003]

Looks more like April instead of September in the basin shear wise.

[underthwx]

off topic but...can anyone tell me what the little feature is that's spinning at about 23N...55W?...moving West...


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dwsqos2]

off topic but...can anyone tell me what the little feature is that's spinning at about 23N...55W?...moving West...

That's a really annoying upper level low. And I can't wait until it goes away.

[CrazyC83]

off topic but...can anyone tell me what the little feature is that's spinning at about 23N...55W?...moving West...

That's a really annoying upper level low. And I can't wait until it goes away.

Could that ULL develop a surface feature and become a system itself?

[underthwx]

off topic but...can anyone tell me what the little feature is that's spinning at about 23N...55W?...moving West...

That's a really annoying upper level low. And I can't wait until it goes away.

Could that ULL develop a surface feature and become a system itself?

NHC-A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE SE OF MARIA
CENTERED NEAR 21N53W COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N-30N BETWEEN
43W-64W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
That's what I am wondering..it sure has the look on the satellite loops...can it..or is this a forming system???.....sorry to be off topic...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[OURAGAN]

The low at 11N / 28W is dissipating and a new low formed at 9N /35W, where the convection is increasing a litte bit.

[OURAGAN]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W
ALONG 11N29W TO 07N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO 09N61W. A PAIR OF 1014 MB SURFACE LOWS
ARE LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N28W AND 09N35W
WHICH CONTINUE TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE N OF
THE EQUATOR TO 14N E OF 40W. THIS LARGE AND STRETCHED OUT
MONSOON GYRE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 11W-40W.