Pouch P29L SE of CV Islands (Is invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

Well, let's see if this new low pressure is the one that will break the lull that the North Atlantic 2011 hurricane season is enduring. At least the main models GFS and ECMWF had it on yesterdays 12z run,but on the 00z one,both didn't have it. Will the next runs from both show it again? Is getting late for CV development as the days go by on the ladder part of September,but you never know if things turn favorable and this system develops. It has been introduced at the 12z surface analysis.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P29L.html





Saved image.

[underthwx]

Good day CE...and all members...I have a question CE...can you explain what "pouch P29L" means???.thanks..

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Good day CE...and all members...I have a question CE...can you explain what "pouch P29L" means???.thanks..

This is a group that studies the evolution of every low pressure and tropical waves that emerge from the African Coast and call the lows and waves pouches. Here is the whole explanation from their site.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html

[LarryWx]

Fwiw (which is very little and is certainly worth no more than entertainment), the 12Z gfs has what appears to be loosely related to Pouch P29L getting to P.R. on 9/28 and ending up on 10/2 over central Cuba starting to recurve to the N and about ready to pounce on S FL.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
The 12 Euro takes what definitely appears to me to be the actual Pouch P29L and develop it into a TD near 10N, 28W at 72 hours (9/19 12Z) fwiw. Anyone else notice this?

In contrast, the 12Z gfs's system only loosely seems to be associated with this pouch and it may be developing something seperate a little ahead of it.

Edit: The 12Z Euro strengthens it and takes it to ~45W but then recurves it there on 9/23 as the ridge to its north weakens/splits.

[underthwx]

MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA...LOCATED 40 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

The 18z surface analysis has the low down from 1012 mbs to 1010 mbs.



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[AdamFirst]

How's the shear forecasts looking? Last time I saw it was a buzzsaw out there.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
HURRICANE MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Is invest 97L so this thread is locked. Go to Active Storms/invests forum to continue the discussions about this system.