2011 TCRs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

2011 TCRs

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:09 pm

Cindy released. Peak intensity increased to 60 kt (operationally was 50 kt) based on ASCAT and AMSU data.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL032011_Cindy.pdf
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Dec 16, 2011 4:25 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Reason: To add Hurricane Irene to title
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#2 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:29 pm

There are a couple from the EPAC out...Hurricanes Adrian and Eugene.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2011epac.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145398
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2011 TCRs

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:43 pm

Look for the rest of the reports to come out in the comming weeks. I am waiting for the Irene one to see if she was a hurricane before landfall in Puerto Rico.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145398
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2011 TCRs

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:33 pm

Two reports from EPAC and North Atlantic were released:

EPAC Hurricane Beatriz is out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022011_Beatriz.pdf

Also Tropical Storm Gert is out.Peak intensity was upped from 50 kts to 55 kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072011_Gert.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145398
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2011 TCRs

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:20 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145398
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2011 TCRs

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:29 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2011 TCRs

#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 11:48 am



I barely remember the pre-Irene storms (boring they sure were)...that was a downgrade from operational?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145398
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2011 TCRs

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:49 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:


I barely remember the pre-Irene storms (boring they sure were)...that was a downgrade from operational?


Nothing of a downgrade from operational.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 02, 2011 9:50 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042011_Don.pdf

Don is now out. No significant changes.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145398
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2011 TCRs

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:28 pm

EPAC Hurricane Dora is up. Peak intensity was 135kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP042011_Dora.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1179
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re:

#11 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042011_Don.pdf

Don is now out. No significant changes.


Does the Don report disappear from your hard drive just before it ends?
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Re:

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:02 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042011_Don.pdf

Don is now out. No significant changes.


Does the Don report disappear from your hard drive just before it ends?


Not with me no.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2011 TCRs

#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Look for the rest of the reports to come out in the comming weeks. I am waiting for the Irene one to see if she was a hurricane before landfall in Puerto Rico.


My guess is that she was a hurricane at PR landfall. Also I would personally bring down the peak intensity of Irene from 105 to 100 kt. Landfall intensities in the US I would set at 70, 65 and 60 kt for NC, NJ and NYC, respectively (since the original 80 kt sustained report in NC seems to have been errorneous).
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1179
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: Re:

#14 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042011_Don.pdf

Don is now out. No significant changes.


Does the Don report disappear from your hard drive just before it ends?


Not with me no.


Should have put the smiley in there, that was a reference to Don poofing before it could hit Texas.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2040
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2011 TCRs

#15 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:40 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Look for the rest of the reports to come out in the comming weeks. I am waiting for the Irene one to see if she was a hurricane before landfall in Puerto Rico.


My guess is that she was a hurricane at PR landfall. Also I would personally bring down the peak intensity of Irene from 105 to 100 kt. Landfall intensities in the US I would set at 70, 65 and 60 kt for NC, NJ and NYC, respectively (since the original 80 kt sustained report in NC seems to have been errorneous).


IDK, there weren't any reports of any winds anywhere near hurricane force in New Jersey. In addition, I saw a surface wind analysis by the HRD, and they only estimated peak winds of 58 knots (occurring well off-shore). I suppose, if a storm had hurricane force winds in its eastern quadrant, but those winds didn't affect land, that would still count as a hurricane landfall, right?
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: 2011 TCRs

#16 Postby MGC » Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:35 pm

If there were any hurricane force winds with Irene along the NJ coast they would have been offshore. My kids in the Tidewater VA area said winds only got up to TS force at their houses....MGC
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2011 TCRs

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:32 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Look for the rest of the reports to come out in the comming weeks. I am waiting for the Irene one to see if she was a hurricane before landfall in Puerto Rico.


My guess is that she was a hurricane at PR landfall. Also I would personally bring down the peak intensity of Irene from 105 to 100 kt. Landfall intensities in the US I would set at 70, 65 and 60 kt for NC, NJ and NYC, respectively (since the original 80 kt sustained report in NC seems to have been errorneous).


IDK, there weren't any reports of any winds anywhere near hurricane force in New Jersey. In addition, I saw a surface wind analysis by the HRD, and they only estimated peak winds of 58 knots (occurring well off-shore). I suppose, if a storm had hurricane force winds in its eastern quadrant, but those winds didn't affect land, that would still count as a hurricane landfall, right?


That is correct, the winds were well offshore. I believe there was an SFMR reading of 66 kt about 3 hours before it made that landfall - but that was over 100 miles into the Atlantic. Also at NYC landfall, the strongest winds were over Rhode Island and eastern Long Island - NYC saw mid-range TS conditions (strongest sustained there was about 45 kt).
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#18 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:20 pm

Actual obs with recon supported winds only up to 55 or 60 knots after Irene moved off the NC coast. The wind reduction was much less than normal, and dropsondes dropped in the max wind bands were only recording ~52 knots at the surface. My guess for NJ and NYC landfalls are both TS strength.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145398
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2011 TCRs

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:39 pm

EPAC Hurricane Calvin report is up. Peak intensity was 70kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032011_Calvin.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:07 pm

Nate TCR out - UPGRADED TO HURRICANE based on data from oil rigs not available operationally

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152011_Nate.pdf
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: NotSparta, Stratton23, Ulf and 31 guests