Upcoming week - September 26-October 2

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

When looking at this week, Ophelia was the seeming only story, and it was the only one I predicted would develop. I timed the initial development very well for Tuesday. I also timed the peak intensity on Friday, as it happened on Thursday However, I was 24 hours off each for reaching the Caribbean and dissipation. I predicted Ophelia would reach the Caribbean on Friday, but it did so on Saturday. Meanwhile, I predicted dissipation on Saturday, and it happened Sunday. Also, Ophelia got stronger than I suspected. I thought she would be a very weak storm, but actually reached winds surprisingly up to 65 mph. Overall, I’d call this another mixed evaluation, though the storm was still sheared its whole life and it was probably very hard to get that intensity right this go around.

What might have been a B or B- week was ruined though when Philippe developed on Saturday. I didn’t call for anything else, but this storm had to surprise me late. He’s also doing well, with winds of 60 mph, not good at all for my grade this past week.

Overall, when putting it together, I give myself a C- for this past week.

Let’s see if I can do any better this upcoming week. Here we go!

Current situation and analysis

As said, Philippe is gathering winds of 60 mph over the open tropical Atlantic. It was forecast by the National Hurricane Center to briefly become a hurricane at 5 PM, but this is no longer predicted at 11 PM. It should also never threaten land and gradually weaken as it turns north. There is not one reliable model that disagrees with this line of thinking for Philippe, so the forecast looks very cut and dry for this storm. The only matters will be getting the intensity and timing right with this storm it appears.

Ophelia may have dissipated, but there are some whispers of a possible re-generation further north. Any such re-development would probably not be until late in the week, and would result in Ophelia not becoming a whole lot stronger than it ever became, if that even. Ophelia is unlikely to be any further significant threat to land. Elsewhere, the Caribbean is still much talked-about in models, but the timing remains extremely inconsistent and keeps getting pushed for later. I have yet to call for development in this area as a result, and likely will continue that line of thinking until history says it’s more likely, and models finally start agreeing of when or if it will take place.

Recent history

That last sentence was a very nice segue into this section. But we’ll start with Philippe and what he might do out in the open Atlantic. Storms in that region since 1960 include:

Carol in 1965
Gladys in 1975
Gloria in 1976
Irene in 1981
Helene in 1988
Josephine in 1990
Noel in 1995
Isidore in 1996
Jeanne in 1998
Isaac in 2000
Joyce in 2000
Kate in 2003
Lisa in 2004
Melissa in 2007
Lisa in 2010

Of these 16 storms, only one failed to become a hurricane if you can believe that: Melissa. Also, all but Melissa and Joyce eventually re-curved over open waters. Some storms, like Gladys, Irene, and Isaac, took a little longer, but most did so further east.

Storms forming in the Caribbean during this upcoming week have included:

Hilda in 1964
Opal in 1995
Keith in 2000
Lili in 2002
Stan in 2005
Nicole in 2010

There are some biggies in this bunch, but only six total since 1960. This averages to about one every nine years or so. However, that could easily be skewed when looking at the long 31-year wait between Opal and Hilda. Since 1995, the average wait is closer to four years or so.

Lastly, if Ophelia should re-generate, one really only need look at the history of other storms in 2010. Emily, Irene, Katia, and Maria have all re-curved this year. Albeit, Irene did so hitting land, and Maria hit Newfoundland on the way out. Still, the idea is if this trend holds Ophelia should be no different. Also, odds are if she re-develops that she might become a moderate tropical storm, but with cooler waters churned by Katia and Maria, I would tend to doubt Ophelia has any real chance of becoming a hurricane.

So what does this all tell us?

It’s just too hard to not say that Philippe will become a hurricane, because he should become one. With the way this season is playing, it may not be for long, but at least it would be on his resume, and there would be another out-to-sea “fish” hurricane in 2011.

The Caribbean also likes to start pumping out big storms this week, but they’re just too far and few between for picking one to develop without consistent model trends. And the models are not at all consistent with when such a development might occur. It seems likely that it will happen at some point, but not this upcoming week.

Ophelia still has lots of deep convection, but is poorly organized. She is pretty much destined to re-curve if she re-develops, and probably as stated in both sections above, be no more than probably a 50-65 mph storm on her way out, with her current state and the cooler waters further north.

The Prediction

Overall, this doesn’t look like too hard of a week, but getting an A will really rely on getting the timing and intensity of Philippe, if Ophelia will re-develop, and the formation of anything else, which is very unlikely looking at models this upcoming week.

Let’s start with Philippe. I predict Philippe will start turning northwest on Monday, and become a hurricane that night. Winds will reach 75-85 mph before it starts to weaken on Tuesday. Tuesday night, Philippe will be back to a tropical storm. The slow northwestward track will continue until Wednesday, when it will turn north, followed by more north-northeast on Friday and Saturday. During this time, there will be a gradual weakening trend, to a moderate tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, and then a weaker one on Friday, and a tropical depression on Saturday. By Sunday, Philippe will have dissipated. Confidence is 70%.

Calling for re-development of a storm is a very difficult science to pin down. I think any such event would occur further north and not until at least Thursday for one thing. Still, other storms have developed in that area this year, and it is also where Maria became a hurricane. I predicted Ophelia will re-develop on Thursday west of Bermuda into a tropical depression, and then a storm by Friday morning as it tracks north and then northeast, for both respective days. The northeastward track will continue until Ophelia becomes extratropical late Saturday night near Newfoundland. Confidence is 60%.

Finally, I predict no tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean or anywhere else in the Atlantic this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

-Andrew92

[Migle]

This year has been completely AWOL in logic and Ophelia proved that once again. Thanks for still sticking with doing these weekly though, Andrew.

[Andrew92]

Yeah, it's time to evaluate.... and get it over with.

Ugh, last week was a disaster. About the only things I got right were Ophelia re-generating, its location near Newfoundland at the end of the week, and no new storms forming. Other than that, the timing of the re-generation and the location were way off, and Ophelia got significantly stronger than expected. Of course, I probably would have never predicted her to become a C4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph, but a weak to moderate tropical storm is absolutely no comparison to reality. I also incorrectly predicted a continued re-curve to the north for Philippe, when he decided to turn left instead. He also failed to become a hurricane during the weekend, but hasn’t fizzled yet either like I predicted. You do the math… this week was completely blown, and I am definitely eating an F grade for it.

New week, hopefully with a better result, coming up soon.

Thanks for your kind comment Migle! I agree, this season is really weird so far.

-Andrew92