South Florida October Hurricane Climatology

[jinftl]

Since 1851, more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. Time to start looking towards the high TCHP (high octane fuel for storms) values of the NW Caribbean as the breeding ground for our storms and not so much the atlantic to our west.


Overview of October tropical cyclone activity for South Florida from NWS Miami:

Although overall tropical activity typically begins to quiet down in the Atlantic Basin during the month of October, south Florida is still prone to a tropical cyclone strike. In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month. Although the number of hurricanes peak in October, the number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) which have impacted the area is less than in September. Since 1851, a total of 7 major hurricanes have affected the area, ranking behind September which has had 11 major hurricanes.

Another change from September to October is the origin and tracks of tropical cyclones. In September, most of the tropical cyclones which have impacted the area originated in the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and moving west northwest into our region. However, in October tropical cyclones tend to form in the western
Caribbean Sea with tracks towards the north or northeast into the local area.

Some October tracks:

Hurricane King (1950)



Hurricane Irene (1999)



Hurricane Wilma (2005)


Radar of Wilma....a radar loop many south floridians will never forget



Current TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) map....anything that can getting going in the typical October storm-breeding grounds of the NW Caribbean has mucho high octane fuel to feed from...probably explains why we have seen such late-season beasts as Mitch and Wilma in this very region.

Compare the TCHP readings south of Cuba now to where Opheila is...and where she was able to intensify into a Cat 3....scary 'potential', and given the typical october storm tracks, this season is nowhere near done for the FL Peninsula in terms of potential threats.

[Patrick99]

Yeah...and we all know what would have happened had Wilma not meandered over the Yucatan....Cat 4 hit on all of South Florida from Okeechobee to Key West, maybe even 5.

[weatherwindow]

another arcane factoid: In October, Florida has a higher probability of hurricane landfall than ANY other area in ANY other month. Alternatively stated, no other area at any point in the hurricane season has a higher probability of hurricane landfall than Florida in October. So, when pressures fall, in western and sw caribbean, next month, Florida has a special vested interest.

[Recurve]

Just in the last 25 years, it's been obvious that October into November is South Florida's most active season. Even hurricanes that have spent most of their fury in the Caribbean have had big impacts. We had tornadoes from Mitch in November.

And the killer 1906 and 1909 hurricanes and a 1948 hurricane all hit the Keys and South Florida as Cat 3s in October, coming from the Caribbean.