Low eastern atlantic

[TheEuropean]

Floater is already on it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER DRIFTS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N25W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N31W TO 5N33W. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N28W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N32W TO 6N35W. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 32W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10% at 2 PM TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DUE TO THE CENTER BEING OVER LAND...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[OURAGAN]

I think 10% is too low

[Gustywind]

Loop.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N35W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N37W TO 7N38W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

[expat2carib]

It's moving 15 miles an hour towards a sheared environment. I think 10% is reasonable for the next 48 hours.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:

It's moving 15 miles an hour towards a sheared environment. I think 10% is reasonable for the next 48 hours.

Hi my friend , you're maybe right , let's hope that nothing happens from this area.

[OURAGAN]

MJO is favorable now.

[cycloneye]

I would not be surprised if is tagged as invest soon if it continues like this.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Evil Jeremy]

I would not be surprised if is tagged as invest soon if it continues like this.

Almost there. Floater 1 is covering this and labeled "Invest".

[Gustywind]

Looks like gaining more weight given dvorak T Numbers... and what a westbound!

16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
15/1745 UTC 9.7N 34.6W TOO WEAK INVEST

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO AND LA BAJADA
CUBA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGE LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...SE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A 1004 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N87W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIES BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CUBA WHICH IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 78W-90W. FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN SEA...SE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
81W-89W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N39W TO 15N38W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 16/1144 UTC. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-13N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

[Gustywind]

17/0545 UTC 9.2N 37.2W TOO WEAK INVEST
16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.