2011 Cyclones retirement

[CrazyC83]

Surprised no one has posted this, but what names will get retired do you think?

My guess for the Atlantic: only Irene this year, barring a devastating November hurricane. Anyone agree?

[wxman57]

Irene would seem like a good candidate for retirement.

[cycloneye]

Irene started its destruction treck in Puerto Rico,where is caused massive floodings,so I say Irene of course.

[Florida1118]

Well heres my name by name thinking...

Arlene-Considering Karl wasnt reitred, gonna say No.

Bret-Barely touched the Bahamas. No.

Cindy-Didnt really bother anyone.

Don-Really didnt do much, gonna say No.

Emily-I think it is possible, caused quite a scare in the Carribean.

Franklin-Your insane if you even consider it.

Gert-Unless Bermuda felt that this brush was devistating, which Im pppreetttyyy sure it wasnt, No.

Harvey-Again, I think this is possible.

Irene-I give this a >70% of being retired. Effected alot of people, across many nations.

Jose-Hahahaha.

Katia-Came close to Bermuda. Im not sure of the impacts to Canada though. Maybe?

Lee-Well, gonna say no, but it is possible due to flooding.

Maria-Hit Canada. Again a maybe, though a little more likely than Katia.

Nate-Caused a big scare, but Mexico again didnt retire Karl, so goning to say No.

Ophellia-Hit Canada. Like Maria, I think its possible.


Philippe-Long tracking Tropical Storm until made Hurricane long after. Nope.

Rina-Depends on the impacts to the Yucatan.

Theres my input!

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[CrazyC83]

Storm by storm, my opinion:

Arlene

Case FOR retirement: Decent amount of damage and fatalities
Case AGAINST retirement: Mexico failed to retire clearer cases in 2010, overall damage not catastrophic
Estimated probability: 10%
My verdict:

Bret

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: No major land impacts
Estimated probability: 2%
My verdict:

Cindy

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never affected land
Estimated probability: <2%
My verdict:

Don

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: Fizzled before landfall, no real impact
Estimated probability: 2%
My verdict:

Emily

Case FOR retirement: Some impacts in the Caribbean
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm, not much damage
Estimated probability: 5%
My verdict:

Franklin

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: No major land impacts
Estimated probability: 2%
My verdict:

Gert

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: No major land impacts
Estimated probability: 2%
My verdict:

Harvey

Case FOR retirement: Some damage in the region
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage not catastrophic by any means
Estimated probability: 5%
My verdict:

Irene

Case FOR retirement: Severe damage in areas rarely hit by hurricanes to that intensity in the US, severe damage in the Bahamas and Puerto Rico
Case AGAINST retirement: Death toll not as high as some other storms
Estimated probability: 95%
My verdict:

Jose

Case FOR retirement: (Sounds familiar) Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: No major land impacts
Estimated probability: 2%
My verdict:

Katia

Case FOR retirement: Intense storm, significant damage in Europe
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts as a tropical cyclone
Estimated probability: 10%
My verdict:

Lee

Case FOR retirement: Partially led to major flooding
Case AGAINST retirement: Not a tropical cyclone for the most part in the Northeast, damage in the South not too severe
Estimated probability: 20%
My verdict:

Maria

Case FOR retirement: Hit Newfoundland as a hurricane, also damage in the Caribbean
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage much less severe than Igor or other storms
Estimated probability: 10%
My verdict:

Nate

Case FOR retirement: Some damage in Mexico, gave a scare
Case AGAINST retirement: Weaker case than past storms not retired
Estimated probability: 5%
My verdict:

Ophelia

Case FOR retirement: Intense storm
Case AGAINST retirement: Not much damage anywhere
Estimated probability: 3%
My verdict:

Philippe

Case FOR retirement: Long-lived storm with lots of interest
Case AGAINST retirement: No impacts on land
Estimated probability: <2%
My verdict:

Rina

Case FOR retirement: Major scare to the Yucatan and Central America
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage not severe
Estimated probability: 10%
My verdict:

[george_r_1961]

Since Irene had a severe impact on every major coastal city from Norfolk northward, in addition to causing heavy damage on the NC Outer Banks that was described as being much worse than what Isabel did, I do think Irene should be retired.

[CrazyC83]

Since Irene had a severe impact on every major coastal city from Norfolk northward, in addition to causing heavy damage on the NC Outer Banks that was described as being much worse than what Isabel did, I do think Irene should be retired.

Did ANY east coast city avoid Irene? Closest to a miss was Savannah, Georgia.

No other names I think are worthy of retirement.

[george_r_1961]

Since Irene had a severe impact on every major coastal city from Norfolk northward, in addition to causing heavy damage on the NC Outer Banks that was described as being much worse than what Isabel did, I do think Irene should be retired.

Did ANY east coast city avoid Irene? Closest to a miss was Savannah, Georgia.

No other names I think are worthy of retirement.

I think the worst effects though were from Norfolk northward.

[beoumont]

I guess they will retire Irene; but I wouldn't. There have been many hurricanes not retired that brought similar winds to the Bahamas that Irene did; and really no hurricane winds of sustained force affected the United States during Irene's passage.

But as many above have noted, the rains/flooding caused much damage in the mid-Atlantic, New England area. Would any other tropical storm, regardless of the flooding rains be retired? Would a stalled cold front, or occlusion, causing 20 inches of rain be retired?

Hurricane Irene, 1999, flooded S. Florida with 20 inches of rain, then clipped the Outer Banks with sustained winds at the time of 110 mph. Obviously, it lived to spin another
year.
.
Hurricane Emily, 1993, was a cat. #3 as the eye passed just a few miles east of Cape Hatteras, with its eyewall bringing 110 mph gusts to Buxton. The highest tide in Cape Hatteras history, 10.2 feet, occurred as well, doing much damage. Yet there have been two Emilys since; the 2005 one actually coming ashore in Yucatan as a Cat. #4.

If I had to bet, I would bet my nickel that it will be retired, though. But I vote no.
-----------

As far as the outer banks, the highest sustained wind the sticknets reported was 67 MPH.
The URL to the data is here:
http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/TTUHRT/Irene.htm

and and the actual locations referred to in the above data are here:



102A had 50 mph sustained, 103A 67 mph, 107A 64 mph.

[Macrocane]

I don't live in US but what I've seen in the news is that Irene caused very severe damages in that country, more than other hurricanes that have affected the East Coast, it also caused some damages in the Bahamas and lots of floods in Puerto Rico, so I say Irene MUST be retired, Allison was retired, category 1 Agnes was retired so I don't think this is an intensity issue.

[CrazyC83]

Last time only one name was retired in a season was 2000 (Keith).

[bg1]

Last time only one name was retired in a season was 2000 (Keith).

Discounting 2006 and 09, when there weren't any names retired?

[CrazyC83]

Last time only one name was retired in a season was 2000 (Keith).

Discounting 2006 and 09, when there weren't any names retired?

Correct, I meant exactly one.

[Ptarmigan]

Irene will likely be retired for this season. Arlene and Lee could be retired for causing great damage. However, Mexico did not retire Karl despite causing plenty of damage and death.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I guess they will retire Irene; but I wouldn't. There have been many hurricanes not retired that brought similar winds to the Bahamas that Irene did; and really no hurricane winds of sustained force affected the United States during Irene's passage.

But as many above have noted, the rains/flooding caused much damage in the mid-Atlantic, New England area. Would any other tropical storm, regardless of the flooding rains be retired? Would a stalled cold front, or occlusion, causing 20 inches of rain be retired?

Hurricane Irene, 1999, flooded S. Florida with 20 inches of rain, then clipped the Outer Banks with sustained winds at the time of 110 mph. Obviously, it lived to spin another
year.
.

Tropical Storm Allison didn't even ever make it to hurricane status and the name was retired because of flooding in Texas.

Hurricane Agnes was retired because of the flooding it caused, especially in Pennsylvania, if I remember correctly.

It's not the number of inches of rain that cause retirement but the amount of destruction caused by the flooding. The rainfall map for Agnes found in Wikipedia, if accurate, shows its top rain amount was only 15 inches.

[Hurricane Jed]

Well Karl wasn't as bad as expected and Mexico and the rest of Central America can be pretty weird about what they request to be retired. i.e. Alma in 2008 retired vs. the much worse Agatha that wasn't retired. I think Mexico might base it on economic loss and how much the region it hit stands to lose in the months after rather than huge death tolls and the immediate monetary losses. i.e. Cancun or Cozumel stands more to lose economically over a period of time then say maybe Monterrey. Idk just a theory.

Anyhow Arlene, Irene and Lee are my candidates for retirement.

Arlene because of damages and a 25 person death toll. Personally I'd like to Arlene be retired because the name has been used 10 times.

Irene- self-explanatory.

Lee- more flooding and exacerbated problems caused by Irene. Kinda like Connie and Diane in 1955.

[somethingfunny]

Irene's the only one I see having a legitimate case. Lee was bad but it wasn't exactly Allison. I'll throw in Jova as a wild card.

[CrazyC83]

What names should be the replacements:

Names NOT available for the most mentioned lists

Female I names - Ida, Ileana, Inez, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Isabel, Iselle, Isis

Female J names - Janet, Jeanne, Jimena, Joan, Jova, Joyce, Josephine, Julia, Juliette

Male L names - Lane, Larry, Lee, Lenny, Lester, Lorenzo, Lowell, Luis

[CrazyC83]

I would pick Irma to replace Irene. No other changes necessary I think.

[hurricane25]

Only one that should be retired is Irene.