what past storms do you think they will add after reanalysis

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

what past storms do you think they will add after reanalysis

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Nov 09, 2011 5:09 pm

Here are canidates that come to mind

January 4 1992: That system had started out as a Nor-Easter and moved over the gulf stream and started to aquire what seemed to a shallow warm core and was very out of season and had wind gusts to over 80mph and had an eye

December 23-24 1994: A low pressure system forms to the east of florida as it moves over the gulf stream and quickly gained tropical characteristics and became a warm core system, had an eye, and had wind gusts to over 100mph in SE Mass

May 6-10 2005: Started out as a Nor-Easter and while sitting in the gulfstream started to gather strength and on the 7th and caused a real problem for North carolina with wind gusts up over 100mph and the morning of the 8th it looked like a borderline subtropical\tropical storm with an eye and went near cape cod on the 9th and weakened and on the 10th went extratropical
0 likes   

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: what past storms do you think they will add after reanalysis

#2 Postby bg1 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 5:53 pm

I want to see the 1944 storm that supposedly made it across the Mediterranean Sea added. There was a thread about this storm somewhere.
0 likes   

Chickenzilla
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)

Re: what past storms do you think they will add after reanalysis

#3 Postby Chickenzilla » Thu Nov 10, 2011 8:12 am

Early February 2010.Landfalled in Spain or Portugal and made it to the Mediterranean Sea.Did some floods and damage on Madeira.
Image

Grace 2009 that it was tropical until landfall in Wales. :double:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2040
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: what past storms do you think they will add after reanalysis

#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:39 am

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/A_Reanalysis_of_the_1944-1953_Atlantic_Hurricane_Seasons_-_The_First_Decade_of_Aircraft_Reconnaissance.pdf - here's a paper on the storms that they'll probably add from 1944 to 1953.

As for other storms, here are some candidates IMO.

Image
A subtropical storm on April 1-4, 1998

Image
Check the storm nearing Newfoundland. David Roth (the person who's behind the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall maps) believes it was a hurricane.

There could be an upgrade of an existing tropical cyclone. Tropical Depression Fourteen in 1987 had several instances in which tropical storm force winds were reported (per here - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1987-prelim/trop/prelim01.gif)
0 likes   

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: what past storms do you think they will add after reanalysis

#5 Postby mitchell » Fri Nov 11, 2011 3:16 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Here are canidates that come to mind

January 4 1992: That system had started out as a Nor-Easter and moved over the gulf stream and started to aquire what seemed to a shallow warm core and was very out of season and had wind gusts to over 80mph and had an eye


I was living at the beach in Delaware and watched this storm come ashore that morning from the oceanfront. The winds were unreal. Even bracing yourself you could not stand upright. I'd say 50-70 mph with higher gusts. Amazing storm surge...the tide went from a typical minor storm tide at 5 a.m. to 5 feet higher, with 15-20 foot waves in the nearshore causing major structural damage by 8 a.m. The track of the storm, moving onshore over the Delmarva Peninsula in a W-NW direction was also very unusual for a winter storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 11, 2011 3:27 pm

When we get there with the re-analysis, believe me, we will look at all these systems! But it takes a lot of time and effort!!
0 likes   

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: what past storms do you think they will add after reanalysis

#7 Postby mitchell » Sat Nov 12, 2011 10:03 am

2011: Hurricane Irene intensity should adjusted downward. The official track keeping it at cat 1 intensity along the coast of virginia, maryland, and Delaware way too high. The storm passed in close proximity to many onshore and offshore reporting stations in these three states which generally measured sustained winds in the 40-55 range. Nothing even close to hurricane force. It had been a cat one over eastern, NC and was clearly a weakening system when it passed the mid atlantic.

I kind of buy into the "dont want NYC to let its guard down" argument for not downgrading at the time. Here's what makes people let their guard down: Encouraging Delmarva peninsula and New Jersey coastal residents to think that THIS is what a Cat 1 hurricane is like, so clearly we can handle it without evacuating next time....off soap box :)
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Google Adsense [Bot], Sciencerocks, Steve H., USTropics, Zonacane and 72 guests