Upcoming week and beyond - November 21-30 (LAST of 2011)

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Overall, I was right on the money this past week. I wasn't as confident as normal for November on calling for no development, but indeed, nothing developed. The reason for the slightly lower confidence was a feature that some models were indicating to possibly develop tropically at the weeks end in the middle Atlantic. That feature did become Invest 99L, but becoming an Invest does not constitute development. Therefore, for seeing this possible feature, but calling for no development, this past week's grade is a solid A.

So how does Turkey Day look? Since this is the last full week of hurricane season, this will also be the last weekly prediction. I will spill into the first few days of next week though, too.

Current situation and models

Invest 99L is churning out over the Atlantic. It has teased the idea of developing tropically, with chances early on Sunday as high as 50 percent. However, the chances have dropped as the system has gotten less organized from a tropical standpoint, down to 40 percent. This system is forecast by several models to intensify to possible near hurricane-force winds at its peak, but the National Hurricane Center does not think it will become a tropical or even subtropical system as it heads northeast over open waters.

Elsewhere, I don't see anything to indicate any tropical developments to close out this season.

Recent history

Since 1960, the following storms have developed in the last ten days of November:

Martha in 1969
Karl in 1980
Karen in 1989
Nicole in 1998
Olga in 2001
Otto in 2004
Epsilon in 2005

That's a somewhat surprising seven storms in about 50 years. Also surprising, only Karen and Otto did not become hurricanes! However, none of the five that did intensify into hurricanes became anything more than C1 hurricanes. Martha and Karen developed in the western Caribbean and remained trapped there; Martha sprung a rare hit on Panama, while Karen swirled further north but deluged Cuba with heavy rains. The other five storms stayed over the open Atlantic and never hit land.

So what does this all tell us?

The season is indeed winding down, but Invest 99L is in the spot to develop into a tropical cyclone if anything were to do so in this last part of the hurricane season. Indeed, models do intensify this to hurricane-force winds at its peak. The question is, does it actually become tropical or subtropical? The National Hurricane Center is saying no, and it is looking more and more frontal in nature as time goes by, at least today. But, this will probably also be the best chance of getting Tammy before 2011 is up, barring any overtime storms in December.[/b]

The Prediction

I really want my last prediction to be a clincher to what has been a very rough year overall for this column. So many storms were so hard to predict in 2011, and it would be nice to go out on a bang. However, it won't be easy. Invest 99L, though not particularly likely to develop, could still get quite strong whether tropical or not. But it just looks to be more frontal in nature, and not in any hurry to become a warmer core system. It wouldn't surprise me, but I'm thinking it's a no-go for this system. I predict no tropical development for Invest 99L or anything else in the last ten days of November 2011. Confidence is 70%.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

Overtime storms in December have been quite common lately it seems...or at least close calls...

[MGC]

I think that as long as the AMO is in the warm phase we will continue to see a shot at late season tropical cyclones. When the AMO was in the cool phase we had those pathetic 1970's seasons.....MGC

[jinftl]

Calling for no development the 2nd to last week of November...and nothing indeed developed...hmmm....are you also calling for no development in December and January?!?!? I am thinking that is a pretty safe prediction to make!

Overall, I was right on the money this past week. I wasn't as confident as normal for November on calling for no development, but indeed, nothing developed. -Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Well you have to give Invest 99L credit for hanging tough out there in the Atlantic. The chances for it developing into something subtropical have definitely increased since I wrote this. I know, it shouldn't be hard to get this last week and a half right, but as long as there is something that *could* develop into an entity like that, confidence for a prediction like that will not be the highest.

This system is definitely more of a fighter than I originally gave it credit for. I did also see this potential feature coming in the previous prediction, just didn't call for its development.

As for December and beyond, I'd like to predict no named storms, but it has happened recently. Odette and Peter in 2003, Zeta in 2005, and Olga in 2007. Do I think it will happen again this year? No. But is it possible for it to happen? You bet it is!

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

OK, this is VERY late as I've been a bit busy preparing for Christmas and all, but let's evaluate the last part of the hurricane season.

The last part of the hurricane season, I simply called for no development. However, there was an interesting system out over open waters that teased developing into a subtropical storm. I did see this feature, but called for no development from a tropical or subtropical standpoint. Indeed, it just continued out to sea and remained a cold-core system by nature. Nothing else threatened to develop tropically or subtropically. Therefore, my grade for the last part of the hurricane season is an A.

Another post evaluating how I did throughout 2011 coming shortly.

-Andrew92