2011 - Season Evaluation

[Andrew92]

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season has come to an end. Overall there were 19 tropical storms, 7 of which became hurricanes, and 3 of those became C3 storms or higher. However, that last number is under debate as there is some speculation that Rina may have briefly gathered winds of at least 111 mph in the Caribbean. As it stands for this evaluation, I will treat her as if she was a high-end C2 storm as operationally assessed.

First off, how did I do on each individual storm that occurred?

Arlene: I actually first thought Arlene might come from a very early season disturbance in the Caribbean. That disturbance was not greatly well-organized, but did show flashes of potential. However, it never could get off the ground, and my prediction for that system was an utter disaster.

But the system I called to become Arlene was much better-predicted. One thing that always got me in 2010 was the timing of development of these cyclones. But I nailed Arlene's almost perfectly, even tabbing the possible date over a week in advance! However, I had Arlene over water for about 12-24 hours less than actually occurred, and had her getting winds of about 50 mph or so, when she got 65 mph instead due to that longer time over warm water. The landfall location in Mexico was pretty easy to get right though, along with the flood threat. Overall, not a shabby prediction for this storm.

Bret: This was the first of those infamous frontal systems that really put a damper on weekly predictions in late July and much of August. These things were so hard to predict in terms of timing of development due mainly to models not picking up on them until they were just about to develop. Granted, at least this storm formed on a Sunday, the day I always put out a new prediction, so I had a chance with this one. Overall, it wasn't a particularly hard storm to nail, but many forecasts called for a pretty weak tropical storm. However, I thought it had a chance to surprise in that regard, but probably not become a hurricane. Indeed, pending the cyclone report, maximum winds reached 65 mph at their highest. I was also right to keep this storm offshore.

Cindy: Another frontal system, and this one came in the middle of the week and lasted just a couple days. Models didn't see it until about the day before it developed. In hindsight, I still think I wouldn't have predicted this one, let alone almost becoming a hurricane at one point!

Don: Another rocky prediction overall, and this was from a tropical wave! This was due to the wave being disorganized and I thought it wouldn't fully recover. It did, enough to become Don, but boy was this storm an underachiever, which is saying something considering it wasn't expected to amount to much to begin with. The only threat from this storm was a rainfall threat, which wasn't even legit as it was heading to Texas where there was that massive drought. Any rainfall that came was in the form of a few sprinkles really, and not nearly enough to help that situation. But from my end, a pretty bad prediction. I would say what actually happened fell between two extremes: my prediction of no development, and some models' predictions of a stronger storm.

Emily: This appeared to be the first hurricane in the making. But it hit Hispaniola and even before then couldn't get off the ground. I actually did a somewhat decent job on the track, but the land interaction was very hard to pin down. The dry air that kept this system from intensifying before that was also not picked up on my part. Overall, the track was OK, but the intensity was a disaster. If there's one small thing I take solace in though, nearly everybody except maybe the Euro model was way off on this one.

Franklin: Another frontal system I didn't see coming. Lasted a day or two on a Friday and Saturday. The classic scenario to not even come close to getting this right, no matter how weak he may have been.

Gert: Like Franklin, didn't see her coming when I did. However, with her forming on a Sunday, I had a chance to redeem myself, like with Bret. However, I overestimated her and thought she had a chance to become a hurricane, when her winds only reached 60-65 mph. She also stayed a little further east of Bermuda than I thought, though it was easy to see that Gert would re-curve over the open Atlantic.

Harvey: I should have seen this one coming, but I didn't and got a big letdown. This was my big failure of the season. I was on a short vacation and was busy getting ready for that and didn't really look at models much before leaving. I paid for it dearly here, as Harvey gave himself a chance to become a hurricane before settling down as a 65-mph storm in Belize. I did nail the last part, landfalling as a minimal tropical storm in southern Mexico, though. But that was when Harvey was already about to emerge in the Bay of Campeche, and is only about one or two points in the grand scheme of things with this storm.

Irene: I didn't do great overall with this storm, but this was an improvement from what had otherwise been a dismal last month or so. When models and mets were predicting a C4 or maybe even C5 storm, I went lower and had a C3 storm with winds of 115-125 mph at its strongest. That is exactly as strong as Irene ever got, as it cruised through the Bahamas. At the time I was predicting this storm, models were hinting on a gradually re-curving track towards Georgia and South Carolina, so I went with that. I had little to no idea that the predictions would trend eastward over time, until Irene eventually hit eastern North Carolina, and then New Jersey, New York City, and New England. I also had the landfall intensity at C3, but it was a C1 instead with 80-85 mph winds in North Carolina. Still, with what I had to work with, this was much better than almost every other storm so far in the year, except Arlene and Bret.

TD 10: There was a lot of talk about this potentially becoming a hurricane, but I didn't even see it developing. While I was wrong there, it still didn't even become a named storm. Therefore, I can give myself one pat on the back for at least not buying into the hype that went with this one, even though it still was generally forecast to re-curve over open waters.

Jose: A weak, 40-mph tropical storm that lasted about a day near Bermuda and headed north. Sound familiar? Yep, didn't see this one coming either.

Katia: If Irene was my first real improvement of the season, this was my breakthrough prediction of the year. Compared to just about all the other storms of 2011 to date, my forecast for this one was stellar. I nailed the timing of development to a tee, and while the early part of the intensification had some issues, I did still do a good job at predicting a 135-140 mph C4 storm at peak intensity between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. The track was also superbly forecast on my end. Granted, it wasn't a hard one, but I had her passing between those two island areas, and off the East Coast enough to not produce too many effects besides surf, and then stay south of the Maritime Provinces. The weakening was at first a little faster than I anticipated, but evened out in the end. This may have been the storm I predicted the best in 2011.

Unnamed storm: Didn't see it coming, another frontal system. Shows what I need to work on!

Lee: I also did a pretty good job with this storm. I say it coming, pinned down the maximum intensity and landfall in western Louisiana, and the flood threat. My one issue? It came back to timing. Everything I predicted with this storm came to be roughly when I said it would, but 48 hours earlier. Otherwise, another very good prediction.

Maria: This one was a challenge to predict. Maria came from a pretty disorganized tropical wave that nonetheless showed potential of developing further. I at first anticipated an arrival in the Leeward Islands and eventually Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a minimal hurricane. However, while the track until reaching the islands was close, the intensity was not. Maria underachieved bigtime, and was a struggling tropical storm as it passed very near but just east and then north of the Lesser Antilles. After that the prediction to re-curve and reach Newfoundland was an easy one. Since Maria was underachieving, I predicted she would fall short of becoming a hurricane but come close. However, she did become one briefly after all. Then again, effects in Newfoundland were minimal. Overall, an average prediction for this storm.

Nate: At the time when I predicted Nate would become a hurricane, it was operationally assessed to have fallen short. We now know Nate was briefly a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche. Still, I expected a stronger storm. I don't think I would have ever predicted a 45-mph storm at landfall in Mexico, but calling for a 100-mph storm looking back was way off the mark. Also, I had the track a bit further north than what actually happened. The intensity portion was downright terrible, and the track was only so-so at best. Not a great prediction overall.

Ophelia: The early part of this prediction wasn't too hard to pin down. Dry air had held Katia in check for some time before she got further north, and also did the same to Maria. So it wasn't hard to say that Ophelia would struggle in the tropical Atlantic into nothing more than a 60-65 mph storm or so, and with models then dissipating her, I also went along with that. That appeared to all be happening on schedule.... and then she re-developed. I didn't see that happening, and not only did she do so, she became significantly stronger than I ever could have expected. From a fledgling system to a 140-mph impressive hurricane in just a few days?! The track I was thinking was at least the re-curve that happened, but I should have at least seen the re-development, and called for a minimal hurricane. A C4 though? If I had that prediction back I still would have flunked that part.

Philippe: Mixed bag here. I at first though this storm would struggle and it did indeed do so. But then I though Philippe would weaken and re-curve rather quickly and dissipate, and that didn't happen. My good news with this system was that when it didn't I still had a chance to make good on this one. As it headed westward, I initially called for only a strong intensification, but then briefly becoming a minimal hurricane as it re-curved northeast. That last part was much better executed than the first part with this storm. I guess my issue was getting a handle on the steering currents in Philippe's area at the time this storm was around. Most storms that time of year usually do re-curve without hesitation, and the trend was for that to continue. But this storm kept pushing westward. But once I saw that, I was much better on this storm. Overall, this makes for about an average grade with this storm.

Rina: This is another two-part evaluation, as there was an Invest that came before the actual Rina did that I thought would get the name instead. I had this Invest becoming a moderate tropical storm before hitting Florida and then becoming extratropical. Flooding was to be the main event with this system. I did get the track of that Invest right and when it became extratropical, along with the flood threat. But.... it didn't become Rina, let alone even a tropical depression.

But for the system that did become Rina, here I did somewhat well on. It did intensify a bit quicker than I anticipated at first, but the peak intensity was within my window of 105-120 mph. There is debate over just how strong Rina was, and I am eager to see the tropical cyclone report, but I suspect even if she was a C3 storm, that she had winds no more than 115 mph and only briefly. The weakening trend came a little quicker than I thought. I also thought there would be more of a rain threat to the Yucatan than there was, but Rina unraveled quickly and reached that area as a moderate tropical storm at best, instead of the hurricane I was predicting. I then had Rina re-curve through the Florida Straits out to sea, but she didn't even reach there. The track was pretty good overall except the last part, and I nailed the peak intensity, though the timing of intensification and weakening and how fast each took was a bit of a surprise. Overall, didn't too great but not bad either here.

Sean: The last storm of the season. Those frontal systems got me all throughout that first half of 2011, and this is the kind of system Sean came from. However, I finally overcame that hurdle, predicted development, and it came to be with this storm. Sean did last a day or two longer than I thought, and got slightly stronger than I anticipated.... but I did say it could do such a thing. My peak intensity was 50-60 mph, but the actual was 65 mph. I didn't quite see Sean becoming fully tropical or threatening Bermuda like it did, but overall this was not a bad prediction. And it was without a doubt my best prediction of all the storms to develop from non-tropical origins.

OVERALL
2011 was a very difficult year for this column. The models really failed me on all those early season frontal systems, and several storms underachieved throughout the year. The big outlier to that was Ophelia, which drastically overachieved instead! It just goes to show that even when it appears to be a downer year for storms trying to intensify, there can be one that busts through and exceeds expectations. Also, remember it only takes one big storm and you have your season, and that was the case with Irene.

Timing of development was an issue in 2010; this improved for the most part in 2011. It is true that I struggled with all those frontal systems, but then again so did a lot of models. But storms I did a good job on this front included Arlene, Katia, Maria, Ophelia, Rina, and Sean. In 2010, I think I got about one or two right, so while there is still work to be done, I have made progress there.

Now the issue is these frontal systems. Maybe I should see when these are more likely to develop for next year? According to Dr. Gray and Klotzbach, there is a 40% chance of El Nino in 2012, which means we could see more storms like Cindy or Franklin that I may want to try to see coming.

And that is a wrap on the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

-Andrew92

[bg1]

OVERALL
2011 was a very difficult year for this column. The models really failed me on all those early season frontal systems, and several storms underachieved throughout the year. ...

Timing of development was an issue in 2010; this improved for the most part in 2011. It is true that I struggled with all those frontal systems, but then again so did a lot of models. But storms I did a good job on this front included Arlene, Katia, Maria, Ophelia, Rina, and Sean. In 2010, I think I got about one or two right, so while there is still work to be done, I have made progress there.

Now the issue is these frontal systems.

-Andrew92

Yes, this was a very difficult year to forecast, even the professionals were perplexed. All these frontal systems, disorganized waves and storms, and stronger hurricanes in the subtropics than in the tropics. Then there were the pathetically stable air (which, by the way, didn't seem to halt intensification too much in the EPAC) and wind shear. Let's see... ULLs and SAL... This year felt like 2009 to me for the most part. /rant

At least most storms stayed from land, which is good, and Irene did remind the northeast of hurricanes without causing as much damage as it could have.

[CrazyC83]

I doubt Rina became a major, since there was never any data that supported higher than 95 kt, and in between Recon flights there was never a stronger satellite signature. The subtropics were just putting out storm after storm which made things so difficult...all three majors became one north of 25N I believe, and of the hurricanes, only Rina (and Nate in the end) were entirely south of that point as well. Ophelia was probably the big surprise - I don't think ANYONE expected it to become a Cat 4 at such a high latitude. That would have been CATASTROPHIC for Bermuda if it was just a couple hundred miles farther west.

[Cyclenall]

Then there were the pathetically stable air (which, by the way, didn't seem to halt intensification too much in the EPAC) and wind shear. Let's see... ULLs and SAL... This year felt like 2009 to me for the most part. /rant

Finally, someone who gets the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season! Why is every La Nina turning out to have more wind shear and dry air (ULLs everywhere) then neutral years? These seasons that are supposedly suppose to have dramatically less wind shear seem to have as much or more then normal.

and Irene did remind the northeast of hurricanes without causing as much damage as it could have.

I'll be making a thread on weather cliques by the end of the year .

The subtropics were just putting out storm after storm which made things so difficult...all three majors became one north of 25N I believe, and of the hurricanes, only Rina (and Nate in the end) were entirely south of that point as well.

Sounds like El Nino style season for the Atlantic, while the Epac had an El Nino style as well...during a La Nina. Epac had Kenneth and others which was stronger then any storm in the Atlantic this season...when you have a late November Epac Hurricane that is stronger than any Atlantic hurricane during what was suppose to be a "hyperactive" season, there is something weird going on. ENSO is lying to us....