2012 WPAC season

[euro6208]

So how does everyone see the 2012 WPAC Season panning out? with neutral or even el nino expected, i expect an active season than last year...

last year, the remaining months got shut down by la nina...

here on guam, we've already experienced an above amount of rainfall...

[cycloneye]

My set of numbers for the WPAC in 2012 are 27/16/7. Those numbers are based on a mainly Neutral to maybe a very Weak El Nino forecast by the models.

[dexterlabio]

Interesting to note that last year's La Nina didn't seem to increase the TC activity in Western Pacific. For me, it caused the other way around. There were a number of decent typhoons but the expectation for a La Nina season was still not met.


I can see this season to be somehow like in 2009, mostly a neutral year with a shift to El Nino in the last few months. My set of numbers are 24/15/6.

[cycloneye]

The first name that will be used will be Pakhar as Washi was the last name of the 2011 season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml#wnp

[Chacor]

It will be the first time the name is used after Matsa's retirement in 2005.

[StormingB81]

April 1 was the first tropical Depression last year who is taking the Over/Under...

[euro6208]

An increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the West Philippine
Sea/South China Sea (west of Palawan). Active convection caused by the
above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), favorable upper-level winds
(aka. Weak Vertical Wind Shear), and prevailing La Niña conditions favor
tropical development in this area. Confidence: MEDIUM


If this verifies, 2012 might get an early start.

[euro6208]

01W?

[senorpepr]

Looking at the PAGASA name list, does anyone know what the replacement name for Frank is?

[cycloneye]

It looks like all the signs are pointing towards El Nino by the Summer and that will help elevate the numbers for this 2012 season.

[euro6208]

The West Pacific sure looks ready to wake up again and these should grow warmer in the next few weeks.

[Reesie]

For those who are interested in the names, the Typhoon Committee has decided to retire the name Washi and replace Fanapi from last year with Rai.

Page 11/22.

http://www.typhooncommittee.org/44th/Do ... _FINAL.pdf

[dexterlabio]

Well I heard that La Nina is fading away quickly and it could be as quick as the emergence of an El Nino episode. Well I am kinda expecting it, I was imagining 2012 before to be a a dry and hot season. Basically El Nino means less active TC activity for the WPAC (2010 is a proof for that). Though La Nina doesn't seem to work opposite on TC activity like last year. I don't know how things will pan out for this year, and it makes me feel excited. Hoping that damages wouldn't be the thing this year unlike last year, with Washi being a killer storm.............

[euro6208]

Well I heard that La Nina is fading away quickly and it could be as quick as the emergence of an El Nino episode. Well I am kinda expecting it, I was imagining 2012 before to be a a dry and hot season. Basically El Nino means less active TC activity for the WPAC (2010 is a proof for that). Though La Nina doesn't seem to work opposite on TC activity like last year. I don't know how things will pan out for this year, and it makes me feel excited. Hoping that damages wouldn't be the thing this year unlike last year, with Washi being a killer storm.............

During El Nino years, activity in the western pacific shifts to the east near the International Dateline and we see more storm formation even powerful typhoons...

1997 had a strong El Nino- 10 category 5 developed...

[dexterlabio]

During El Nino years, activity in the western pacific shifts to the east near the International Dateline and we see more storm formation even powerful typhoons...

1997 had a strong El Nino- 10 category 5 developed...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ummary.jpg

Good point. To add, 1998 was a half-El Nino half-La Nina year and it had plenty interesting TC's, also 2009 where most intense cyclones formed during the last 2 quarters of that year. What makes me unsure is the thing that happened in 2010 having a record-low number of TC's, not to mention the very hot and dry weather we had to bear for months. The first half of 2010 was a pretty strong El Nino episode so I'm not sure if atmospheric conditions to be brought by the projected El Nino this year will be like the ones in 1997-1998 or will turn into a 2010-like season.



.......maybe the Nino doesn't necessarily have to affect the TC formations in the basin at all

[euro6208]

correct me if i'm wrong but wasn't 2010 a la nina year? values were at -0.5 or lower in the last half of that year so i wouldn't call it an el nino year...

la nina's do tend to decrease activity in the west pacific but storm formations shifts closer to the philippines and south china sea...

[dexterlabio]

correct me if i'm wrong but wasn't 2010 a la nina year? values were at -0.5 or lower in the last half of that year so i wouldn't call it an el nino year...

la nina's do tend to decrease activity in the west pacific but storm formations shifts closer to the philippines and south china sea...

Hmm as far as I remember La Nina kicked in during the second half of 2010, and it became a full-blown episode by December2010-March2011, one of the strongest in several decades.......I called 2010 an El Nino year because the first few months of 2010 were the times when El Nino made a severe impact on the Philippines and nearby countries. We had to get our water then from deep well because of the drought and it's just so hot and dry. I was praying for some decent storm to bring us rains.

[Chacor]

Just thought I'd share my collection of links for the upcoming season:


RSMC - JMA - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
DOD - JTWC - http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC

National Meteorological Services:
China - CMA - http://www.typhoon.gov.cn/en/index.php
Guam - NWS - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php
Hong Kong, China - HKO - http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm
Korea, Republic of - KMA - http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/typoon/typhoon.jsp
Macau, China - SMG - http://www.smg.gov.mo/www/cvm/typhoon/f ... onmain.htm
Micronesia, Federated States of - NWS - see Guam
Northern Mariana Islands - NWS - see Guam
Philippines - PAGASA - http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php ... Itemid=376
Singapore - MSS - http://www.weather.gov.sg/wip/pp/ssops/typhoon/ts.htm
Taiwan, Republic of China - CWB - http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?
Thailand - TMD - http://www.tmd.go.th/en/storm_tracking.php
Vietnam - NCHMF - http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/70/102/Default.aspx

I don't currently have working links for Malaysia, Cambodia, or North Korea.
I also have a link for Laos - but there does not appear to be a working TC page.
Lao PDR - DMH - http://dmhlao.etllao.com/

[wxman57]

2010 began as a moderate El Nino then made a rapid transition to a moderate La Nina during the summer (and peak NW Pac hurricane season). See the Nino 3.4 dates/temps below.

13-Jan-10 1.7
20-Jan-10 1.4
27-Jan-10 1.2
3-Feb-10 1.2
10-Feb-10 1.2
17-Feb-10 1.2
24-Feb-10 1.2
3-Mar-10 1.1
10-Mar-10 1.2
17-Mar-10 1.2
24-Mar-10 1.1
31-Mar-10 1
7-Apr-10 0.8
14-Apr-10 0.8
21-Apr-10 0.7
28-Apr-10 0.5
5-May-10 0.3
12-May-10 -0.1
19-May-10 -0.2
26-May-10 -0.2
2-Jun-10 -0.4
9-Jun-10 -0.5
16-Jun-10 -0.5
23-Jun-10 -0.5
30-Jun-10 -0.6
7-Jul-10 -0.8
14-Jul-10 -1
21-Jul-10 -1.1
28-Jul-10 -1.3
4-Aug-10 -1.1
11-Aug-10 -1.1
18-Aug-10 -1.1
25-Aug-10 -1.5
1-Sep-10 -1.6
8-Sep-10 -1.5
15-Sep-10 -1.5
22-Sep-10 -1.5
29-Sep-10 -1.8
6-Oct-10 -1.8
13-Oct-10 -1.5
20-Oct-10 -1.5
27-Oct-10 -1.4
3-Nov-10 -1.3
10-Nov-10 -1.3
17-Nov-10 -1.5
24-Nov-10 -1.6
1-Dec-10 -1.5
8-Dec-10 -1.5
15-Dec-10 -1.4
22-Dec-10 -1.7
29-Dec-10 -1.5
5-Jan-11 -1.5
12-Jan-11 -1.8
19-Jan-11 -1.5
26-Jan-11 -1.7
2-Feb-11 -1.5
9-Feb-11 -1.2
16-Feb-11 -1.3
23-Feb-11 -1.2
2-Mar-11 -1.3
9-Mar-11 -1
16-Mar-11 -0.8
23-Mar-11 -0.8
30-Mar-11 -0.8
6-Apr-11 -0.6
13-Apr-11 -0.6
20-Apr-11 -0.6
27-Apr-11 -0.6
4-May-11 -0.5
11-May-11 -0.4
18-May-11 -0.2
25-May-11 -0.2
1-Jun-11 -0.1
8-Jun-11 0
15-Jun-11 -0.1
22-Jun-11 0
29-Jun-11 0.1
6-Jul-11 -0.1
13-Jul-11 -0.1
20-Jul-11 -0.1
27-Jul-11 -0.2
3-Aug-11 -0.4
10-Aug-11 -0.5
17-Aug-11 -0.7
24-Aug-11 -0.6
31-Aug-11 -0.6
7-Sep-11 -0.6
14-Sep-11 -0.7
21-Sep-11 -0.8
28-Sep-11 -0.7
5-Oct-11 -0.9
12-Oct-11 -0.8
19-Oct-11 -0.7
26-Oct-11 -1.1
2-Nov-11 -0.9
9-Nov-11 -0.8
16-Nov-11 -0.9
23-Nov-11 -0.9
30-Nov-11 -1.1

[euro6208]

2010 began as a moderate El Nino then made a rapid transition to a moderate La Nina during the summer (and peak NW Pac hurricane season). See the Nino 3.4 dates/temps below.

Just as i thought...La nina during the heart of the season...