European Space Agcy sat can 'improve hurricane forecasts'

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Chacor
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European Space Agcy sat can 'improve hurricane forecasts'

#1 Postby Chacor » Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:09 am

Very interesting — currently ASCAT is the only scatterometer satellite that the NHC relies on to aid its wind speed forecasts, but this could be of immense use. The ESA's SMOS satellite, originally sent up for use in determining ocean salinity, has been found to be effective in estimating tropical cyclone strength. The satellite passed over Hurricane Igor nine times and each time its estimate wind speed closely matches the NHC's data:

http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEMJFHWX7YG_index_0.html

The SMOS sensor works in the ‘L-band’, at frequencies around 1.4 GHz, which also allows surface wind speeds over oceans to be derived, even in cloudy and rainy conditions.

When winds reach gale force over oceans, breaking waves and whitecaps affect the microwave radiation being emitted from the surface. This means that when a storm builds, changes in the emitted radiation can be linked directly to the strength of the wind over the sea.

In addition, the radiation detected by SMOS is far less disturbed by rain and atmospheric effects than higher microwave frequencies.

Since clouds and rain are typical of tropical cyclones, measurements from SMOS uniquely complement observations made in extreme conditions, when measurements from other satellites become less accurate.

This means that SMOS has the potential to improve accuracy for forecasting the strength of tropical cyclones.

SMOS’s new-found capability was demonstrated by analysing SMOS data over Hurricane Igor, which reached category 5 in the North Atlantic in 2010.

The large swath and frequent revisits allowed the satellite to pass over the hurricane nine times during 11–19 September.

Surface wind speeds were estimated from SMOS brightness temperature images using a technique developed by scientists from the French Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea, Ifremer, and Collect Localisation Satellites, CLS, through ESA’s Earth Observation Support to Science Element programme.

The animation at the top shows the result of their work. The estimates of surface-wind speed agree with hurricane model forecasts and data taken over the hurricane by NOAA aircraft.
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#2 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:23 am

In the article it says Hurricane Igor reached category 5 strength, but officially it was an end high CAT4. I think it's possible it was briefly a CAT5 during that one Sunday so maybe they think it :P .

Interesting about what they found, wonder if it was by accident or not.
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Re: European Space Agcy sat can 'improve hurricane forecasts'

#3 Postby nreul » Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:13 pm

I am the first author of this work.
Actually, Igor reached Cat 5 on the 15th september, just before it underwent and eye replacement cycle.
By the way, this was not found by accident.
We anticipated the potential of L-band radiometry at high wind.
Major limitation of SMOS instrument for NHC is however the low spatial resolution of the instrument (~50 km)
This limit our ability to predict winds in the eyewall
Regards
NR
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Re: European Space Agcy sat can 'improve hurricane forecasts'

#4 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 2:11 pm

nreul wrote:I am the first author of this work.
Actually, Igor reached Cat 5 on the 15th september, just before it underwent and eye replacement cycle.
By the way, this was not found by accident.
We anticipated the potential of L-band radiometry at high wind.
Major limitation of SMOS instrument for NHC is however the low spatial resolution of the instrument (~50 km)
This limit our ability to predict winds in the eyewall
Regards
NR

Igor reached a maximum strength of 135 knots, or 155 mph. Cat 5 is 156+ mph. Per the NHC's Tropical Cyclone Report.
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#5 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:31 pm

Ok, which is it? Did Igor reach category 5 status or not because I checked the post-season database and it still shows it at a high end CAT4 level.

Nreul, what is your title if you are indeed affiliated with this study?
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#6 Postby RL3AO » Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:48 pm

TCR has a peak intensity of 135kt which is a category 4. Cat 5 starts at 136kt.
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