NE Gulf of Mexico

[tolakram]

No model support.
High shear.
Water temps near 26C - 27C
Pressures rising, not falling.

Live Visible Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Just something of interest. Maybe some more rain for Florida?

[wxman57]

Surface obs don't support any LLC, just 15-20 kt SE-SSE wind through the region. Pressures in the 1016-1018mb range.

[tolakram]

Nice mid level rotation showing up in the visible.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Outflow boundaries starting to show up, so this little feature may be nearing the end of the line.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We are now in D3 Extreme Drought Conditions across Tampa Bay and the Florida peninsula. I really hope this area of rain can hold together and bring us some showers later.

Wxman57 do you think this area will hold together and bring us rain?
Last weekends south Florida deluge completely missed central Florida.

[cycloneye]

A little bit of 850mb vorticity.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thunderstorms are developing further east and moving west but the focal point for development appears to be propagating east based on water vapor and radar loops
I do not expect anything tropical out of this due to shear and proximity to land.

[tolakram]

000
FZNT24 KNHC 031502
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1102 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ001-032130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1102 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES LOCATED E OF FLORIDA NEAR 31N75W EXTENDS A
RIDGE W ACROSS THE N GULF STATES YIELDING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A NARROW ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS AND STRONG TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE E GULF BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REORGANIZE JUST OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI
AND DRIFT S TO NW BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE
EXTENDING W ACROSS THE N GULF COASTAL WATERS.

...

[tolakram]

From the Miami NWS discussion...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
242 PM EDT Thursday may 3 2012


Short term...tonight through Saturday...a couple of very interesting
convective systems across eastern Gulf of Mexico. The northern one a few
hundred miles west of Tampa showing a rather well defined middle
level circulation. Models show large amount of moisture associated
with these two features to stream northward as a 500mb weak trough
moves slowly eastward across the southeastern U.S. GFS, European model (ecmwf) and
NAM keep this moisture away form the local area as a low/middle level
high press ridge builds over the western Atlantic and the flow
becomes more eastward through Saturday. Although mostly dry
conditions are expected through this period...a light mean flow
will likely allow Sea/Lake breezes to develop. This combined with
diurnal heating and any available moisture could result in
isolated afternoon convective activity wherever the breezes
converge in the afternoons. Plenty of sunshine and moderate
subsidence will result in a quick warming trend with maximum afternoon
reaching the upper 80s across inland areas by Saturday...however
sea breezes may keep temperatures from rising above the middle 80s along
coastal sections.

...

[northjaxpro]

This is just another mesoscale convective vort, which we have seen quite a few of these this spring. There was a MCV which traveled across the entire Gulf Coast region from the Texas coast to across north Florida a couple of weeks ago. That instance the MCV lasted a couple of days.

This current meso-vort is attached to a mid-upper level trough that extends northward from the Eastern GOM to Tennessee. As pointed out, surface pressures are too high and it is likely that this area will lose a lot of its convection once we lose the daytime heating later this evening. Hopefully, some of the residual moisture can make its way northeast in the short term across areas of the Big Bend and northern portions of the peninsula which desperately need rain. Any type of moisture would help that's for sure.

[AJC3]

If you go back and look at yesterday's visible imagery, you can see there was another low level vort center that moved north from the central GOMEX up into LA/MS. Both today's and yesterday's features formed along a weak, elongated low level trough that had been stationary on the SW flank of the large surface Atlantic surface high pressure center. The trough extended SE across the eastern half of the GOMEX toward western Cuba, before turning due eastward across the Straits and Cuba. It's much less defined that it was earlier this week (even yesterday).

It's actually what is (or was) left of the surface trough that developed this past weekend on the eastern flank of the large H50 low which formed over the NW Caribbean (which had its own thread), and produced all that heavy rain over south FL and adjacent areas.

[thetruesms]

If you go back and look at yesterday's visible imagery, you can see there was another low level vort center that moved north from the central GOMEX up into LA/MS. Both today's and yesterday's features formed along a weak, elongated low level trough that had been stationary on the SW flank of the large surface Atlantic surface high pressure center. The trough extended SE across the eastern half of the GOMEX toward western Cuba, before turning due eastward across the Straits and Cuba. It's much less defined that it was earlier this week (even yesterday).

It's actually what is (or was) left of the surface trough that developed this past weekend on the eastern flank of the large H50 low which formed over the NW Caribbean (which had its own thread), and produced all that heavy rain over south FL and adjacent areas.

Exactly this. Unfortunately, it's losing its deep moisture plume (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html), so rainfall amounts are sure to take a tumble - although Lafayette County looks like it's getting absolutely pounded right now - lucky them.

[brunota2003]

Good thing it isn't August