Upcoming week - June 4-10 (first of 2012!)

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, I am doing this again for 2012! I would have liked to have been able to do one of these last week but for one thing I was on vacation, and another was that even with Tropical Storm Beryl (wait, WHAT?!), the official start of the season was on Friday, and the weekly outlook would only cover three days of the normal hurricane season. But here we are, with our first full week to take a look at. With two storms already having come and gone (with Beryl also almost being a hurricane), will this craziness continue? Let’s take a look….

Current situation and models

Several models are indeed picking up something of interest over the next couple weeks. Namely, the GFS has some sort of disturbance or maybe tropical storm in the very long range in the western Caribbean, extending into the Gulf of Mexico. The Euro is also picking up some sort of disturbance off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in that long range period. Some professional mets are also hinting at the possibility of some sort of tropical development before June 15. However, that “long range period” I mentioned is really beginning about next Tuesday or so. These same mets also indicate that any such development may not happen until after June 10. Looking at the calendar, June 10 is the last day of this upcoming week.

But this week presents a bit of a twist, at least personally for me. The other night, I actually had a dream that two tropical depressions formed at the same time, one over the open Atlantic and another in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The one over the open Atlantic quickly became Tropical Storm Chris, while the other one took its time before becoming Debby. That is as much as I remember of this dream, and who knows if this even means anything. But I do seem to recall a similar dream in early 2005 or so about a big hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Texas named Rita. And then September came, and that dream became reality, spookily for me. Hmm???

Recent history

Since 1960, these storms have occurred during these next seven days:

An unnamed storm in 1964
Alma in 1966
Abby in 1968
Alberto in 1982
Andrew in 1986
Allison in 1995
Allison in 2001
Arlene in 2005

Eight storms total have formed during this upcoming week during the past 52 years, equating to one about every 6-7 years or so on average. Four of these storms went on to become hurricanes: Alma, Abby, Alberto, and 1995 Allison.

Abby, Alberto, and 1995 Allison were only briefly hurricanes; Alma was a much stronger category 3 storm. Arlene did come awfully close to becoming a hurricane though, topping out at 70 mph. All five of these storms also developed in the western Caribbean and took paths towards Florida.

The unnamed 1964 storm and Andrew (not the famous one!) both developed over the open Atlantic and were less intense, reaching winds of about 50-60 mph. And infamous Tropical Storm Allison formed further west in the Gulf of Mexico and topped at a similar intensity. Just don’t think that’s how she is remembered, though!

So what does this all tell us?

If you’re looking for development this upcoming week, your best bet is the western Caribbean, with a storm path most likely heading towards Florida. The models corroborate this line of thinking, attempting to develop something in that area within the next two weeks. But developments can happen over the open Atlantic, too, no matter how rare they might be. Heck, just take a look at where this season’s two tropical storms both formed: off the southeast coast of the United States. It’s also a bit hard for me to ignore that dream I had the other night about newly-formed storms Chris and Debby, with Chris being over open waters and Debby in the Gulf of Mexico, i.e. the potential Florida threat. Wow, as I am typing this, I am starting to remember some kind of a Florida threat for her, but I don’t remember how intense.

Then again, the key words were it could happen within the next two weeks. Models and professional mets seem to agree development might be no earlier than June 10. Still, that is the last day of this upcoming week, but a bit later seems more likely at this point for any such development.

The Prediction

This upcoming week looks like a pretty typical early June prognostication. June 10, or next Sunday, is the key date, but I am just thinking if anything were develop that date, it would be in the latter half of the day and not really get going until Monday or Tuesday. Then again, there is that dream I had… but I don’t recall the dates for the two storms in it either. And who knows what it even means, if anything at all. I predict no tropical cyclone development or activity this upcoming week. Confidence is 80%.

-Andrew92

[Blown Away]

You keep doing it!! It's good stuff!!

[cycloneye]

Nice to see these back for another season! Keep it going my friend!

[Kitrin]

I love reading your analyses. Perhaps we can bring on a Pro-Psych to help with those dreams? LOL!

Kitrin

[Andrew92]

I like that idea Kitrin! In all seriousness, I will keep it in the back of my mind for sure, but I still prefer to go with what the pros and the models predict could happen, and what history tends to suggest. It's just wild thinking the names of the two storms in that dream happened to be the next two names on this year's list! But who knows.... and thanks to all for the continued encouragement! I was actually on a quandary this year but decided to do it again.

-Andrew92

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I like that idea Kitrin! In all seriousness, I will keep it in the back of my mind for sure, but I still prefer to go with what the pros and the models predict could happen, and what history tends to suggest. It's just wild thinking the names of the two storms in that dream happened to be the next two names on this year's list! But who knows.... and thanks to all for the continued encouragement! I was actually on a quandary this year but decided to do it again.

-Andrew92

Well, since I am a psychology professor --

The biggest factor in determining what's in someone's dreams is simply "day residue", which means that people tend to dream about things that have been on their minds during the previous day. I would imagine that tropical storms and their prediction is one of the things that is most on your mind, especially at the start of the hurricane season. And I am also sure that you are very well acquainted in your waking life with what would be the next two names on this year's list. So it is no surprise at all that your mind would come up with a dream where you see two storms named Chris and Debby -- it's really just the opposite of being "wild", it's completely normal as to how the creation of dreams usually works.

I'm probably unusual for a psychology professor in that I don't completely discount the possibility of precognition in dreams. However, that seems rather unlikely here because the dream fits your everyday concerns so well. It's likely that it just reflects what you are normally thinking about in your waking life and it's just your sleeping mind extrapolating from your waking thoughts.

[Riptide]

I like that idea Kitrin! In all seriousness, I will keep it in the back of my mind for sure, but I still prefer to go with what the pros and the models predict could happen, and what history tends to suggest. It's just wild thinking the names of the two storms in that dream happened to be the next two names on this year's list! But who knows.... and thanks to all for the continued encouragement! I was actually on a quandary this year but decided to do it again.

-Andrew92

Well, since I am a psychology professor --

The biggest factor in determining what's in someone's dreams is simply "day residue", which means that people tend to dream about things that have been on their minds during the previous day. I would imagine that tropical storms and their prediction is one of the things that is most on your mind, especially at the start of the hurricane season. And I am also sure that you are very well acquainted in your waking life with what would be the next two names on this year's list. So it is no surprise at all that your mind would come up with a dream where you see two storms named Chris and Debby -- it's really just the opposite of being "wild", it's completely normal as to how the creation of dreams usually works.

I'm probably unusual for a psychology professor in that I don't completely discount the possibility of precognition in dreams. However, that seems rather unlikely here because the dream fits your everyday concerns so well. It's likely that it just reflects what you are normally thinking about in your waking life and it's just your sleeping mind extrapolating from your waking thoughts.

You are an excellent psychologist but a poor fiction creationist

[Andrew92]

And the week is over, time to evaluate.

The first full week of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season certainly could have been really interested if it wanted to, with both Alberto and Beryl forming within a couple weeks before it! However, every active streak does have its lull (unless the year is 2005), and especially this time of year it always seems this activity never sustains itself. So even when models tried to sniff something out on Sunday at the earliest, and I had a freaky dream of two storms simultaneously with the next two names on the list, there could have been chaos. But the fact was, everything pointed to something coming a little later, and I thus called for no tropical development. That is exactly what happened, so my grade for the first week of 2012 is an A.

Next week coming shortly.

-Andrew92