Small swirl south of Florida Panhandle

#1 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:34 am

its due south of Destin, FL and appears to be drifting east. Interesting little feature.

you can zoom in and snimate this impage
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

animate the radar loop out of Eglin, AFB
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=evx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Aric Dunn · #2 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:58 am

yep we all have been watching( and were debating on when or if to start a thread). the models have on some runs kept this feature around and the gfs yesterday had it slowly organizing and eventually starts moving west over the next five days. its need to some deep convection before it would even have a chance.

but worth watching.

#3 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 4:45 pm

Didn't see this thread! Fort Worth NWS discussed it today:

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HELPED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE
STORMS YESTERDAY WILL BECOME TRAPPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW MAY MEANDER
WEST SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING TROUGH NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND MERGE WITH THIS LOW. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS/NAM THAT THIS LOW WILL TRANSITION
INTO A WARM CORE LOW...WITH THE NAM EVEN CLOSING OFF A LOW AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF SUNDAY BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OUT
THERE AS A SOLUTION. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/SREF ALL WEAKEN THE TROUGH
AND KEEP A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES...THINK DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

Aric Dunn · #4 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 5:23 pm

well at least we know moisture is on the increase there is a large mass of t'storms that have developed today all daytime heating over land but are rotating around the weak low none the less. if that convection works its way offshore. Then maybe something to watch if it holds together. models are still keeping it around. so has to be watched.

yzerfan · #5 Postby **yzerfan** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 6:38 pm

I think that's what we're about to get the NW bit of:

Statement as of 6:18 PM CDT on June 14, 2012

... A strong thunderstorm will affect Okaloosa County in northwest
Florida... through 715 PM CDT...

At 618 PM CDT... a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Crestview... or 10 miles south of Laurel Hill... and moving southwest
at 5 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Laurel Hill... Eglin AFB... Crestview...
Baker...

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 48 and 66.

The primary threats from this storm are wind gusts up to 55 mph.
Winds this strong could blow off tree limbs and also blow around
small unsecured objects. Seek shelter until this storm has passed.
Small hail is also possible with this storm.

This storm may continue to intensify and a warning may soon be
needed. Please continue to monitor local radio or TV for further
National Weather Service updates or possible warnings.

To report severe weather... call (800) 284-9059.

Aric Dunn · #6 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:17 pm

l o o k s like the littl circ is pulling the convection around.

#7 Postby **MGC** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 8:04 pm

Quite a bit more convection today than this time yesterday as it moved offshore near Mobile.....something to watch.....MGC

Aric Dunn · #8 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:50 am

convection increasing and still some rotation low level convergence is increasing. see if the convection can maintain well needs more than that.

#9 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:02 am

It will be interesting to see if this feature tries to consolidate in the coming days as ridging is forecast to build in from the Mid-Atlantic and will pull this system westward. Convection is definitely increasing and now a 1012 mb surface reflection is analyzed just offshore the Florida panhandle coast.

NHC TWD excerpt 8:05 a.m.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE TO NEAR 26N87W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
15/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N84W THROUGH A
NEWLY FORMED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W TO 28N90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF LINE FROM APALACHEE BAY
NEAR 30N83W ALONG 28N89W TO 28N94W.

#10 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:14 am

Yes looking more like the convection is a result of something at the surface rather than aloft as it was yesterday. As said before the high building to the north should keep it off shore and increase the pressure gradient.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:34 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this area continues to consolidate more,I would not discount a invest.

Aric Dunn · #12 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:40 am

looking at 1km visible this morning. the circ has become much more defined since last night and is being pulled underneath that convection. I think it has just increased its potential... if it keeps this up and pressure start to fall today it may even get a mention from the hurricane center.
well good job models... euro, gfs, and well the NAM... at least its actually a feature. small one at that. .

Aric Dunn · #13 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:42 am

cycloneye wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this area continues to consolidate more,I would not discount a invest.

hehe you beat me too it.

... hehe when recon leaves they will just about fly right through it. lol

thundercam96 · #14 Postby **thundercam96** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this area continues to consolidate more,I would not discount a invest.

hehe you beat me too it.

... hehe when recon leaves they will just about fly right through it. lol

For Carlotta ?

Aric Dunn · #15 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:47 am

thundercam96 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this area continues to consolidate more,I would not discount a invest.

hehe you beat me too it.

... hehe when recon leaves they will just about fly right through it. lol

For Carlotta ?

yeah sorry. for carlotta.

Also steerin still suggest a slow drift to the ese or SE till the ridge builds in.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this area continues to consolidate more,I would not discount a invest.

hehe you beat me too it.

... hehe when recon leaves they will just about fly right through it. lol

Plane already has past that area as is going SW in the central GOM.See Carlotta recon thread.

Aric Dunn · #17 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:49 am

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this area continues to consolidate more,I would not discount a invest.

hehe you beat me too it.

... hehe when recon leaves they will just about fly right through it. lol

Plane already has past that area as is going SW in the central GOM.See Carlotta recon thread.

well darn... lol was mostly kidding anyway.

#18 Postby **drezee** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:07 am

greater than 25kt sustained winds offshore...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1

KatDaddy · #19 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:21 am

Definite rotation. Lets not forget Alicia 1983 formed with a similar event.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
FOR THE PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY WATER OUT TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT/1045 AM EDT/

* AT 912 AM EDT/812 AM CDT/...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
DETECTED MULITPLE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ROTATING AROUND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA.

#20 Postby **drezee** » Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:27 am

Also, similiar to Berly from 1994: