EURO consistent with TX and on Fabian, and possible CV wave.

[Stormsfury]

Day 4 ... 1003 mb low over Southern TX ...
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 4 ... Northern Hemisphere ... the same 1003 mb tropical low over Southern TX, Fabian (of course, this was initialized at 12z - 8 am EDT - so of course, Fabian wasn't initialized as a tropical storm). But note behind Fabian, another closed low - tropical feature at 1010mb low - this is the same wave that showed 4 mb pressure falls over Dakar, Senegal in a 24 hour timeframe, and the EURO is already picking on potential ... as well as a couple other models ...

Day 5 ...
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 6 ...
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 7 ... EURO taking Fabian a little further north than the other models. Again, I offer a precautionary note. Fabian was NOT initialized as a tropical storm on this run ...
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Ok .. there's obviously a lot to talk about tonight and in another thread shortly, I'll post a wide array of thoughts on that regarding the overall scheme of things...

SF

[Steve]

The new ECMWF run is much faster and futher south in Texas. This is definitely a change from the slow crawl it was previously predicting into next week. Chances are, ultimate strength will be less, but everyone knows about tightening with Texas landfalls.

http://www.ecmwf.int/

There's the link to the European model homesite. You have to click on "Free Access" then scroll down to North America to see the runs.

Steve