The left of Moisture in the Southern Gulf??

[stormywaves]

I am truly a novice but I was wondering is there anything to all that moisture in the Southern Gulf of Mexico that Debbie left behind? Is that anything to watch?

[Aric Dunn]

I saw that too. looks like an old boundary. with strong upper divergence aiding convection. if it hangs around awhile might do something

[cigtyme]

By saying if it hangs around awhile, do you mean because of the massive High in the south central US?

[Aric Dunn]

By saying if it hangs around awhile, do you mean because of the massive High in the south central US?

just that it has to maintain convection and stay over water if you want to see anything develop.

[lrak]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 281947
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
247 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX WL GRADUALLY MOVE SWWD INTO NRN
MEXICO/RIO GRANDE RGN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WL ALLOW THE LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE
RGN TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY. WL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL
BEND AND ADJACENT WATERS GIVEN THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THIS RGN. WL THUS GO LKLY TO LOW END
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS AREA. WL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY GIVEN THE WEAKER MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND FORCING IN THIS RGN. RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE... SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE RETROGRADING UPR LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STILL FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WL YIELD AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY. AS UPR LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA BY
MON...SUBSIDENCE WL BE ON THE INCREASE WHILE MOISTURE WL BE ON THE
WANE. STILL MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ON MON...MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND AND WATERS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC WL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY FCST AFTER MONDAY. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT THINK THE COVERAGE WL BE QUITE
SMALL. TEMPS WL REBOUND FROM THE WEEKEND AS THINGS DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WETTER SOILS...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

At least a chance of some much needed rain

[tailgater]

Not much rain but at least yall have a chance.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta84hr_sfc_prcp.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection, showers and thunderstorms increasing in the western gulf just off the
coast of Texas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Surface winds are gusting to 30 knots.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/poes/gmex/sswd.jpg


Shear is around 20 knots
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... zoom=&time

With a strong ridge in place, this area of disturbed weather should head towards Texas and possibly
Louisiana.

[Portastorm]

JB tweet over the lunch hour:

"Tropical wave western gulf increasing, but will run out of room. Rainmaker, heat breaker for deep south Texas ."

[ROCK]

LL convergence is increasing but this is mostly caused by the vigorous ULL in STX...Maybe if it had more time over water but its already moving inland. Plus the ULL is throwing 30knts of shear over it. Nothing going to stack with that much shear. No model support either.

[ROCK]

JB tweet over the lunch hour:

"Tropical wave western gulf increasing, but will run out of room. Rainmaker, heat breaker for deep south Texas ."

ha, great minds think alike....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Should be a good soaker though. Perfect for us. Lets hope this afternoon heating can make it a bit more widespread

[tailgater]

If those T-storms continue to increase we might see I little more organization begin. Convergence looks like it's increasing and the upper levels seem pretty good to me (I know what the charts are saying).

Brownsville long range loop
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tailgater]

Ramdis put a floater on it.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
pretty big blow up, i didn't think this was gonna be anything but a few showers popping up along the coast.

[ROCK]

getting interesting....look at the upper divergence going on with this blob. Still no vort though...needs to sit awhile and cook some...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Dean4Storms]

A north wind sustained at 40kts here.........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

[tailgater]

A north wind sustained at 40kts here.........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

I'm not sure that's a good report or maybe T-storm nearby

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone have a vorticity map? Where is the "center?"

[ROCK]

Last map I saw showed no 850 vort in this area....thus my statement it needs to cook for awhile....

[ROCK]

This has really expanded in size...if they tagged 97 with just a hint of rotation....this might get tagged tonight, IMO...it growing big time
...have to see if it survives the night...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hey Rock I think this could be at the very least a heavy rain and gusty wind event for Texas. I would not at all be surprised to see development out of this. It is blowing up very quickly.