EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf

[fwbbreeze]

Though the radar image is a bit cluttered there does appear to be some rotation with the storms. No matter what their appears to be a lot of rain heading to south FL.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[artist]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[Sanibel]

Not quite twisting up on radar.

[NDG]

Nice vorticity at the mid levels, nothing at the surface.

[Nimbus]

Fairly large mid level vorticity, afternoon thunderstorms are moving west through Tampa bay instead of east off the gulf. Wonder if this could become invest worthy in a day or two? Center of circulation seems to be over the glades ATM.

[Sanibel]

I think there's something forming there. Radar shows something snapping together.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[N2FSU]

For entertainment purposes...from the NWS Tallahassee discussion:

We also see a trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that will be drifting
off to the northwest through Thursday. The NAM is back to its old
tricks of deepening a surface low over the eastern Gulf in response
to this feature. Unfortunately, our 12Z locally-run WRF uses the NAM
for its boundary conditions and is developing a tropical cyclone
northward into our area by tomorrow. Don`t believe it! We are
discarding these solutions for the more reasonable GFS and ECMWF. We
will be going with likely PoPs across the board on Thursday.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Appears to be several contributing factors as to
the cause of this outbreak, but at any rate the models were
clueless. In fact, the short term models such as the rapid refresh
did not recognize anything was occurring and neither the GFS nor
the NAM forecasted well with only isolated probability of precipitation.

That was the Miami discussion today. 7/11. ULL are tricky to forecast. The one south of Bermuda is huge. Maybe it will get to the surface in time.

[Sanibel]

Nope. Suckered by an eddy. Should have known better.

[tailgater]

Well there may be something trying to get together in the next day or 2, then again it's the Nam but I don't see why it would do too bad with something this close in. I think it's the area crossing FLA. is forecast to organization a little probably not even to TD status the upper levels shouldn't be very favorable.


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta69hr_sfc_mslp.gif

at 57 hrs. then it starts weaking.

[cycloneye]

Crown Weather has a discussion about this AOI.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557


Disturbed Weather Near South Florida Will Be Watched Closely In The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend

Thursday, July 12, 2012 6:15 am

by Rob Lightbown



Over the past 24 hours or so, I have been watching with some curiosity, an area of low pressure that seems to have developed in the mid-levels of the atmosphere near the Florida Everglades. Convection across south Florida has gone through a waxing and waning process, where the thunderstorms fire for a while and then die right off a few hours later.

There is some vorticity (spinning air) across south Florida and environmental conditions are somewhat favorable. Additionally, it appears that a tropical wave tracking westward near Andros Island in the Bahamas may give this system a little kick in the butt and this kick will have to be watched closely.

The upper-level wind profile from Florida into the Gulf of Mexico points to this system tracking into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Current wind shear analysis indicates that wind shear values are right around 10 knots.

With all of these factors combined, I think this area of disturbed weather will need to be monitored right into this weekend.

This system if anything else will bring widespread thunderstorm activity to south Florida, as well as western Florida from Tampa to Naples and Marco Island. Total rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are likely in these areas with locally higher amounts expected in heavier thunderstorms.

Now, it should be pointed out that the NAM model forecasts an area of low pressure to form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just west of Tampa by Friday afternoon. This low pressure system is forecast to track west-northwestward through Saturday into southeastern Louisiana by late Saturday or early Sunday. The model seems to hinting that this could organize enough to be classified as a tropical depression. The model forecast radar imagery does hint at some curvature to the echoes leading one to think that something may be brewing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning.

None of the other model guidance such as the GFS, European and Canadian models forecast any development out of this system. Only the NAM model.

At this point, this area of disturbed weather is an area of interest for me and I will be monitoring it closely. I think at most we would see it become a tropical depression as it tracks from just west of Tampa late Friday to southeastern Louisiana around sunrise Sunday.

[Sanibel]

There's a weak spiral over the middle of the peninsula that appears will exit into the Gulf near Tampa.

[weatherwindow]

Just an interesting note Luis...The 7/12 00Z Euro is now providing some lukewarm support with what appears to be an inverted trof developing this weekend in the east-central GOM. It is noted at the 48 hour mark. NWS/Mobile is mentioning the possibilty of higher winds and seas upon verification in their forecast discussion this morning...Rich

[NDG]

Latest surface reports and hr vis sat loop, it appears that the mid level vorticity now east of Tampa is working itself down to the surface.

[tropicwatch]

Upper level winds are not that bad right now and the low might be trying to sink to the surface.

Upper level winds
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Lower level winds
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=ir&zoom=&time=

[JonathanBelles]

You can almost see the spin on Tampa's radar. Gonna be a good wet microburst day.

[NDG]

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[tropicwatch]

Upper level winds are not that bad right now and the low might be trying to sink to the surface.

Upper level winds
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

This could get interesting. Looks like high pressure is building above the low.

[wxman57]

Quite a stretch. Development chances quite low, maybe close to 1%.