2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[hurricanes1234]

This thread is for all of you who would like to share your thoughts on the current 2012 Atlantic season. Has it been active? Has it been boring? Share your opinions! Everyone is free to own his/her personal opinion.

I think the season has been very interesting so far, because we're already at our fourteenth named storm, but the only thing that brought down part of the season so far is that quite a few of the storms remained weak. However, for the case of the landfalling storms that remained weak, that was excellent, because more lives would have been lost.

[TheStormExpert]

The only thing that makes me think this season is not as boring as last years season is this year we did not go through 8 named storms until we finally got our first hurricane of the season which was Irene. This year we only went through 2 named storms until the seasons first hurricane which was Chris and ended up being an interesting first hurricane since it was in June and was in the far North Atlantic.

[galaxy401]

This season was interesting in terms of how the storms behaved. Like last year, many of the storms struggled in the tropics but became hurricanes in the subtropics. Conditions were favorable enough for storms to form but not enough for them to become stronger. Chris, Gordon, and Michael were interesting storms to follow.

[HurrMark]

My opinion is that it has more or less been the trend of the last six or seven seasons...a lot of bark, not a lot of bite. The fact that we are continuing a streak of no major hurricanes striking the US that will likely continue through seven years is quite amazing, given the activity we have had. On top of that, no hurricanes of any type have hit Florida in that span of time as well. This is truly unprecedented in all of our lives. Think of it this way...here are all of the major hurricanes to strike the US during the "quiet period" 1970-1994 (25 years) and the "active period" 1995-2012 (18 years)

Celia - 1970
Carmen - 1974
Eloise - 1975
Frederic - 1979
Allen - 1980
Alicia - 1983
Elena - 1985
Hugo - 1989
Andrew - 1992
Emily - 1993 (eyewall moved over Hatteras)

Opal - 1995
Fran - 1996
Bret - 1999
Charley - 2004
Ivan - 2004
Jeanne - 2004
Dennis - 2005
Katrina - 2005
Rita - 2005
Wilma - 2005

Granted, there are 7 extra years in the "quiet period", but despite this, there were as many major hurricanes to strike the US during that time than during the active period. And note that during the "active period", there was another 5-year span without any major hurricanes striking the US. I am fairly convinced that the climate signals may actually work in our favor and that even though we may see more storms, the chances of any given storm making landfall in the US appears to be lower than in the past.

[tolakram]

PLEASE READ

Please be sensitive to those effected by Isaac and other problems caused by this season. I think discussions on conditions, why storms failed to strengthen and other weather related matters concerning the 2012 season are fine, grading the season on excitement might upset people adversely effected by this season. Thanks.

[Ntxw]

I think we should dub 2012 the "Subtropical Season" . Nadine has followed her comrades that way, amazing how things have gotten going just above the tropics and not much below. Kirk and Michael were definitely the winning surprises in terms of safely watching beautiful systems.

[Ntxw]

So far we have not had a sub 960mb system in the basin. The last time this happened was in 1994. Lowest has been Michael at 964mb

[CrazyC83]

My opinion is that it has more or less been the trend of the last six or seven seasons...a lot of bark, not a lot of bite. The fact that we are continuing a streak of no major hurricanes striking the US that will likely continue through seven years is quite amazing, given the activity we have had. On top of that, no hurricanes of any type have hit Florida in that span of time as well. This is truly unprecedented in all of our lives. Think of it this way...here are all of the major hurricanes to strike the US during the "quiet period" 1970-1994 (25 years) and the "active period" 1995-2012 (18 years)

Celia - 1970
Carmen - 1974
Eloise - 1975
Frederic - 1979
Allen - 1980
Alicia - 1983
Elena - 1985
Hugo - 1989
Andrew - 1992
Emily - 1993 (eyewall moved over Hatteras)

Opal - 1995
Fran - 1996
Bret - 1999
Charley - 2004
Ivan - 2004
Jeanne - 2004
Dennis - 2005
Katrina - 2005
Rita - 2005
Wilma - 2005

Granted, there are 7 extra years in the "quiet period", but despite this, there were as many major hurricanes to strike the US during that time than during the active period. And note that during the "active period", there was another 5-year span without any major hurricanes striking the US. I am fairly convinced that the climate signals may actually work in our favor and that even though we may see more storms, the chances of any given storm making landfall in the US appears to be lower than in the past.

The amazing thing about those "quiet period" majors is that almost, if not, all of them should survive reanalysis as legitimate major hurricanes. Alicia might be downgraded to a Cat 2 but otherwise all seem like legitimate Cat 3+ (Celia should be upgraded from 3 to 4).

[jinftl]

"Quiet period" is all relative...if Gustav had come ashore in LA with 111 mph sustained winds instead of 110 mph sustained winds, we wouldn't be in this perceived quiet period from landfalling majors.

Every decade, even the busiest and most damaging ones, never have a predictable, static return rate of 'big ones' making landfall. I don't think anyone would argue that the 1st decade of the 2000's was one of extreme hurricane events in the U.S. Bear this in mind - only 2 years from 2000 to 2009 saw a major hurricane make landfall in the U.S. (2004 and 2005 - with multiple each year). That left 8 years of no majors in terms of wind speed at time of landfall.

The 2000-2002 period was uneventful in terms of serious U.S. storm impacts...just because 2010-2012 has been somewhat similar (except for Irene), doesn't really mean much in terms of what is coming up the next several years.

7 and 8 years ago...a minute in the grand scheme of things...we were pondering on this very board (which i joined as Hurricane Frances was approaching FL) how we would recover from the obliterations caused by Katrina, and to a somewhat lesser extent Dennis, Rita, Wilma, Ivan, Jeanne, Frances and if the U.S. was ready for the new 'reality' of multi-billion dollar, community destroying mega-canes. Now we are pondering why we have no majors make landfall. The pendulum will no doubt swing back in the other direction of pondering some time soon...may not be this year, or next, but it will happen sooner than we may think right now.

A flip side view to the 'unprecedented stretch of majors hitting the u.s.' storm trends the last several years - we are seeing storm events in the U.S. more and more frequently that are being in measured in terms of tens of billions of dollars in damage...perhaps not surprising since population and property values have grown...but let's face it, we no longer need an Andrew or Camille intensity storm to be a catastrophe that impacts millions, costs billions, and leaves folks wondering what just happened. We've seen storm damages over $10 billion in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011...not looking quiet as quiet in those terms.

Even without major, life has changed for entire regions following 2004 and 2005...ssk folks in South Florida if there insurance rates have gone down much since Wilma....

[cycloneye]

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF SEPTEMBER. BOTH OF THESE REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...WHILE MICHAEL
BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THESE
TOTALS WERE BELOW THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (1981 TO 2010) OF FOUR
NAMED STORMS AND NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES OF TWO TO THREE
HURRICANES AND ONE OR TWO MAJOR HURRICANES.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 50 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2012ATLAN.SHTML

[CrazyC83]

"Quiet period" is all relative...if Gustav had come ashore in LA with 111 mph sustained winds instead of 110 mph sustained winds, we wouldn't be in this perceived quiet period from landfalling majors.

Every decade, even the busiest and most damaging ones, never have a predictable, static return rate of 'big ones' making landfall. I don't think anyone would argue that the 1st decade of the 2000's was one of extreme hurricane events in the U.S. Bear this in mind - only 2 years from 2000 to 2009 saw a major hurricane make landfall in the U.S. (2004 and 2005 - with multiple each year). That left 8 years of no majors in terms of wind speed at time of landfall.

The 2000-2002 period was uneventful in terms of serious U.S. storm impacts...just because 2010-2012 has been somewhat similar (except for Irene), doesn't really mean much in terms of what is coming up the next several years.

7 and 8 years ago...a minute in the grand scheme of things...we were pondering on this very board (which i joined as Hurricane Frances was approaching FL) how we would recover from the obliterations caused by Katrina, and to a somewhat lesser extent Dennis, Rita, Wilma, Ivan, Jeanne, Frances and if the U.S. was ready for the new 'reality' of multi-billion dollar, community destroying mega-canes. Now we are pondering why we have no majors make landfall. The pendulum will no doubt swing back in the other direction of pondering some time soon...may not be this year, or next, but it will happen sooner than we may think right now.

A flip side view to the 'unprecedented stretch of majors hitting the u.s.' storm trends the last several years - we are seeing storm events in the U.S. more and more frequently that are being in measured in terms of tens of billions of dollars in damage...perhaps not surprising since population and property values have grown...but let's face it, we no longer need an Andrew or Camille intensity storm to be a catastrophe that impacts millions, costs billions, and leaves folks wondering what just happened. We've seen storm damages over $10 billion in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011...not looking quiet as quiet in those terms.

Even without major, life has changed for entire regions following 2004 and 2005...ssk folks in South Florida if there insurance rates have gone down much since Wilma....

It doesn't take a major hurricane (or even a hurricane at all) to cause many billions of dollars. Many historic storms, especially in the 1950s and 1960s, that were major hurricanes likely are going to come down as well.

Also, if a small Category 5 hurricane (say, Felix-sized) makes landfall in, say, Kenedy County, TX, it will look historic from a meteorological perspective but modest from an impact perspective. Such storm would do less damage than even a large low-end tropical storm in a heavily populated area most likely.

[cycloneye]

CSU forecasts average activity in Caribbean for October/November.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... recast.pdf

[Sanibel]

The lack of an Atlantic ridge seems to have swung a synoptic into the West Caribbean that is unfavorable to development.

[Hurricane Jed]

Nadine is the crazy storm of the year. Haven't seen such a wacky track since Kyle back in 2002.

[HurricaneRyan]

Patty and Rafael came out of nowhere. Dang!

[Hurricane Alexis]

Does anyone think there's gonna be a TC in November?

[TheStormExpert]

It's funny how everyone on here thought this season would be over by mid-late September due to the possible El Niño, and the chances of anything in October or November would be low-very low. September has turned out to be a lot less active in terms of named storms with only 2 vs. October which has had 5.

[jinftl]

True that! From the start, this season has been charting it's own course:

- a flurry of early season activity,
- hurricane after hurricane but only one official major (although in reanalysis, i wouldn't be surprised if Sandy hit 115 mph just before making landfall in Cuba),
- the el nino that never really was - didn't have the anticipated dampening effect on # of storms and on putting the brakes on ending the season early - who would have ever guessed 5 storms in this forecasted 'el nino' October!!!
- a potential multi-billion dollar disaster from the Sandy "perfect storm" that could flood the NYC subways in late October (and the deadliest hurricane to hit Cuba since Dennis in 2005)
- and folks, we have V and W left and then we hit Alpha - nothing would surprise me this season and 'going greek' is a long shot, but not impossible (some model support for a system developing in the Gulf of Honduras down the road...we get that and one or 2 sub-tropical hybrids and Alpha it is)

It's funny how everyone on here thought this season would be over by mid-late September due to the possible El Niño, and the chances of anything in October or November would be low-very low. September has turned out to be a lot less active in terms of named storms with only 2 vs. October which has had 5.

[HurricaneRyan]

Sandy was such a shocking excitement.

[CrazyC83]

About damage comparisons, I made a great point up above. A 150 kt small Cat 5 hitting Kenedy County, TX would likely do far less damage than even a sprawling 35 kt tropical storm hitting where Sandy hit.