If they start spinning everytime there is a bad run, the discussions are going to get mighty long.
The models are not hitting home runs with mid and upper features in ATL and the GFS has had issues the last couple of days. But this kiss-kiss poo-poo stuff bugs me:
THE GFS MOVES FABIAN ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AND IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS TREATS FABIAN AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN EXCELLENT MODEL AND ATTENTION MUST BE PAID TO THE NEXT RUN.
FORECASTER AVILA
The GFS has been dissipating Fab for the last four runs. It is wrong. I'd much prefer Dr. Avila telling it like it is...there are problems w/GFS ATTM in the tropics...God forbid we tell people the GFS is not infallible.
"my spin" :?
Scott
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