2012 name retired=Sandy replaced with Sara (Issac stays)

[HurricaneRyan]

November is almost here and the season is almost over. Which names will be retired after this season?

Isaac and Sandy seem to be definite nominees. I really would be shocked if Sandy didn't get retired after becoming a Hurricane and then a SuperStorm, not to mention the Hurricane Sandy twitter account and the Spongebob joke.

Could we all agree? Or is there another storm that might be worthy of retirement?

[CrazyC83]

Sandy almost certainly, and Isaac has a good shot but I wouldn't say is a guarantee.

[cycloneye]

November is almost here and the season is almost over. Which names will be retired after this season?

Isaac and Sandy seem to be definite nominees. I really would be shocked if Sandy didn't get retired after becoming a Hurricane and then a SuperStorm, not to mention the Hurricane Sandy twitter account and the Spongebob joke.

Could we all agree? Or is there another storm that might be worthy of retirement?

Dont forget the 70 deaths that Sandy caused in the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

Before what Sandy did in the US, I was convinced that the damage in Cuba was enough to retire it. At least Cuba and the US will ask for retirement.

[CrazyC83]

REVISED March 2013, storm by storm:

Tropical Storm Alberto

Case FOR retirement: None really
Case AGAINST retirement: No significant land impact
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Beryl

Case FOR retirement: Unusual land impact, hardest NE Florida hit in a while
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage and casualties fairly low
Probability of being retired: 3%

Verdict:

Hurricane Chris

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Debby

Case FOR retirement: Severe flooding in parts of Florida
Case AGAINST retirement: Relative low impact compared to other storms
Probability of being retired: 10%

Verdict:

Hurricane Ernesto

Case FOR retirement: Significant impact in parts of Mexico and Belize
Case AGAINST retirement: Poor record of retirement - if they didn't retire Alex or Karl, they won't retire Ernesto
Probability of being retired: 10%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Florence

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Hurricane Gordon

Case FOR retirement: Rare direct Azores hit
Case AGAINST retirement: Little damage and no casualties
Probability of being retired: 3%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Helene

Case FOR retirement: Made landfall in Mexico with some damage
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage minor
Probability of being retired: 3%

Verdict:

Hurricane Isaac

Case FOR retirement: Slow moving storm with severe damage and casualties
Case AGAINST retirement: Low intensity, less damaging than some other storms
Probability of being retired: 50%

Verdict: (no case being made)

Tropical Storm Joyce

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Hurricane Kirk

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Hurricane Leslie

Case FOR retirement: Damaging storm for parts of Canada
Case AGAINST retirement: Far less destructive than, say, Igor
Probability of being retired: 10%

Verdict:

Major Hurricane Michael

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Hurricane Nadine

Case FOR retirement: Amazingly long lived storm
Case AGAINST retirement: Only impacted the Azores modestly
Probability of being retired: 3%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Oscar

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Patty

Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal land impacts
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Hurricane Rafael

Case FOR retirement: Some damage reported in the Caribbean and Canada
Case AGAINST retirement: No direct impacts as a hurricane
Probability of being retired: 3%

Verdict:

Major Hurricane Sandy

Case FOR retirement: Very destructive storm to the Caribbean and US, one of the worst on record
Case AGAINST retirement: None that I can think of!
Probability of being retired: >99%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Tony

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

[CrazyC83]

Before what Sandy did in the US, I was convinced that the damage in Cuba was enough to retire it. At least Cuba and the US will ask for retirement.

Correct, Sandy would have likely been retired even if it went back out to sea. Now there are two strong cases. Those are the strongest of all.

As for the EPAC? Not sure if any warrant such.

[HurricaneRyan]

Before what Sandy did in the US, I was convinced that the damage in Cuba was enough to retire it. At least Cuba and the US will ask for retirement.

Correct, Sandy would have likely been retired even if it went back out to sea. Now there are two strong cases. Those are the strongest of all.

As for the EPAC? Not sure if any warrant such.

Carlotta might warrant retirement a little.

[CrazyC83]

This list may not be final, but there are only two names left on the list - Valerie and William - unless we get into the gray area of retiring Greek letters.

The only hurricanes that reached peak intensity in November that were retired that I know of were Lenny, Michelle and Paloma. Still, November hurricanes - including big ones - can and do happen.

[galaxy401]

Isaac and Sandy have the highest chances. I'm not sure if the damage is enough to retire Isaac (it would be cool though to get rid of the last originial I name) but definately Sandy.

None in the EPAC really.

[CrazyC83]

As for replacement names? I'd go with Ichabod and Shelby.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Isaac and Sandy have a great chance for retirement. I cannot recall any Atlantic names retired because of unusual landfall timing or any unusual attributes. Some names have been retired for political reasons like in the East Pacific with Adolf and Israel.

[HurricaneRyan]

Here are some replacement names that I think might be used for Sandy, if she gets retired.

1. Sara/Sarah
2. Stacy/Stacey
3. Sabrina
4. Sydney
5. Serena
6. Stella
7. Skylar
8. Shannon
9. Selena
10. Stephanie

Those are the main S names I can see being used for replacement.

[AussieMark]

I think Isaac and Sandy have a great chance for retirement. I cannot recall any Atlantic names retired because of unusual landfall timing or any unusual attributes. Some names have been retired for political reasons like in the East Pacific with Adolf and Israel.

Pauline in 1997 would have to be last storm retired in East Pacific based on damage and not political reasons.

[HurrMark]

I think Isaac and Sandy have a great chance for retirement. I cannot recall any Atlantic names retired because of unusual landfall timing or any unusual attributes. Some names have been retired for political reasons like in the East Pacific with Adolf and Israel.

Pauline in 1997 would have to be last storm retired in East Pacific based on damage and not political reasons.

Wasn't Kenna retired in 02?

[AussieMark]

forgot about Kenna

[HurricaneRyan]

forgot about Kenna

It's ok. The EPAC is generally forgotten anyways.

[galaxy401]

Sorry for going off topic but Alma was retired in 2008 as well.

[CrazyC83]

Lots of options for replacing Sandy. Not a lot for replacing Isaac.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Here are some replacement names that I think might be used for Sandy, if she gets retired.

1. Sara/Sarah
2. Stacy/Stacey
3. Sabrina
4. Sydney
5. Serena
6. Stella
7. Skylar
8. Shannon
9. Selena
10. Stephanie

Those are the main S names I can see being used for replacement.

By far the most common woman's name that begins with "S" among living American women is Susan. I really hope they go with Susan as Sandy's replacement. The only name that would rival Susan as an "American" S name would be Sarah, and I don't think they should use it for this list, because you have Tara on the EPAC list for this year. It might be confusing if there was a Tara in the EPAC and a Sarah in the Atlantic at the same time, and most of the rationale for giving hurricanes names in the first place is so people can tell them apart quickly in news reports when more than one is active at the same time.

P.S. I also think Stella, Shirley, Sophia, and Sybil would be good choices.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Alberto - 0%
Beryl - 5%
Chris - 0%
Debby - 10%
Ernesto - 10%
Florence - 0%
Gordon - 5%
Helene - 5%
Isaac - 60%
Joyce - 0%
Kirk - 0%
Leslie - 20%
Michael - 0%
Nadine - 5%
Oscar - 0%
Patty - 0%
Rafael - 5%
Sandy - 100%
Tony - 0%