Post-Season changes

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's a list of the changes I think we'll see in post-season analysis.

Beryl, possible hurricane (60 KNOTS) - I wouldn't say it's likely, but there was plenty of 80-85 knot winds observed just above the surface by recon and radar.

Chris, 70-75 knots - Had a well-defined eye and Dvorak intensity estimates were higher than the 65 knot given.

Ernesto, 85 knots (85 KNOTS) - Dvorak intensity estimates show a stronger storm than what was given, and surface observations near the storm's landfall location says winds were higher and pressure was lower than being indicated.

Michael, 105-120 knots (100 KNOTS) - Had a VERY well-defined eye and intensity estimates were MUCH higher than the borderline Cat 3. intensity it was given.

Sandy, 100 knots - The only reason the storm wasn't upgraded operationally is because the NHC wanted another recon pass through the area with the strongest winds, but the plane didn't make it to that location before it went ashore. This upgrade is pretty much a given.

[wxman57]

Beryl appeared to be close to hurricane strength, but I'm not sure there's enough data to upgrade. As for Sandy, I think it'll be upgraded to a Cat 3 prior to its Cuba landfall. Data supports that.

[Hurricanehink]

Also, debatable, but whether the storm in mid-May will be added. The consensus around here seems that it's unlikely, much less certain than the early September one last year or the one south of Nova Scotia in 2006. However, given how well-organized it was, the NHC will probably give it a double look anyway (per last year's unnamed storm, the NHC wrote "As part of its routine post-season review").

[CrazyC83]

Here's a list of the changes I think we'll see in post-season analysis.

Beryl, possible hurricane - I wouldn't say it's likely, but there was plenty of 80-85 knot winds observed just above the surface by recon and radar.

Chris, 70-75 knots - Had a well-defined eye and Dvorak intensity estimates were higher than the 65 knot given.

Ernesto, 85 knots - Dvorak intensity estimates show a stronger storm than what was given, and surface observations near the storm's landfall location says winds were higher and pressure was lower than being indicated.

Michael, 105-120 knots - Had a VERY well-defined eye and intensity estimates were MUCH higher than the borderline Cat 3. intensity it was given.

Sandy, 100 knots - The only reason the storm wasn't upgraded operationally is because the NHC wanted another recon pass through the area with the strongest winds, but the plane didn't make it to that location before it went ashore. This upgrade is pretty much a given.

Beryl - I say NO upgrade. No land data supported anything near hurricane intensity, and the Recon winds appeared transient. I'd keep it at 60 kt.

Chris - Yes the satellite signature suggested a stronger storm, but at such a high latitude in June it may be tough for those winds to reach the surface. 65 or even 60 kt seems best.

Ernesto - Surface data suggests a landfall pressure of about 973mb. Clearly it was stronger than initial analysis suggests. However, the wind data doesn't tell much. I'd only go up to 80 kt.

Gordon - Debatable? ADT supported about 105 kt but normal Dvorak supported 90 kt. Maybe it was 100 kt at its peak?

Isaac - Some may argue it was stronger, but 70 kt seems reasonable given all the data.

Michael - Most data suggests an intensity of 100 or 105 kt is appropriate.

Sandy - The key to the peak intensity is the sustaining period of Cuban surface data. A station on the north shore had 85 kt sustained winds. If 10-min sustained that is about 95-100 kt, and would suggest a landfall intensity of 105 kt adjusted for weakening.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My estimate was just a tad too high with Michael, as the post-season changes leave the storm at 115 mph. Ernesto was indeed bumped up to Category 2 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Beryl's tropical cyclone report came out yesterday. While the peak intensity was 60 knots (70 mph), the National Hurricane Center states that the system may have briefly become a hurricane several hours before landfall (assumption from radar winds).