Is Something there in the Central Atlantic? (Is INVEST 91L)

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Hurricane_Luis
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Is Something there in the Central Atlantic? (Is INVEST 91L)

#1 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:46 am

This model show a TS in the middle of the atlantic on the 3rd of December at 180 hours, please correct me if i am wrong but i think we could see Valerie in a few weeks

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... =natla_slp

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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#2 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:26 pm

ECMWF and CMC shows it too, definitely something to watch

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Central Atlantic development in early December?

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:56 am

The models continue to show a storm developing.

GFS

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CMC

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ECMWF

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#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:46 pm

Is the system northeast of Puerto Rico supposed to become this? There is a little area of convection out there right now.
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#5 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:46 pm

There is already a thread about this system:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114317

It wouldn't be the first time a december system building in this area of the atlantic...
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Re:

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:00 pm

TheEuropean wrote:There is already a thread about this system:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114317

It wouldn't be the first time a december system building in this area of the atlantic...


I missed this thread so the one I made has been merged with this one.
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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:05 pm

12z ECMWF
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Re: Re:

#8 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:There is already a thread about this system:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114317

It wouldn't be the first time a december system building in this area of the atlantic...


I missed this thread so the one I made has been merged with this one.


Thx :-)
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Re:

#9 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:42 pm

TheEuropean wrote:There is already a thread about this system:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114317

It wouldn't be the first time a december system building in this area of the atlantic...


Your avatar is a perfect example of this. :P

Let's see if this season can get both pre-season and post-season storms since 2003.
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Re: Re:

#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:46 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:There is already a thread about this system:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114317

It wouldn't be the first time a december system building in this area of the atlantic...


Your avatar is a perfect example of this. :P

Let's see if this season can get both pre-season and post-season storms since 2003.


Actually, 2007 had both Andrea and Olga :) But yes, let's do this 2012!
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#11 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:52 pm

I'm going to say no to this developing, just because there have been so many teases since TS Tony.
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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:11 pm

Interesting. Let's see what happens.

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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 10:28 pm

Not since the November 7 Nor'easter have models been this consistent though.
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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#14 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:54 am

The 06z GFS is crazy, it developes William after Valarie and it appears to be heading west :eek:

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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#15 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:34 am

supercane4867 wrote:The 06z GFS is crazy, it developes William after Valarie and it appears to be heading west :eek:

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The 00z EURO also shows the second storm (William) but has it following Valarie out to sea.
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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:11 pm

12z GFS continues to show it.

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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#17 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:50 pm

Note that the GFS has upper winds out of the west at 80-110 kts over the low it develops north of PR in early December.
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#18 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:33 pm

No hint of either on NHC though:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 29 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: Is Something there in the Central Atlantic?

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:03 pm

12z Euro also continues to show it.

168 hours

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192 hours

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#20 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:11 pm

Well, future Valerie looks pretty good with 55 mph winds, but as for future william...well it looks bleak for him.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... =natla_slp

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