Which state will have more landfalls in 2013?

[cycloneye]

This is a good poll to sample what the members think about where will the most landfalls (Tropical Storms or Hurricanes) occur in the U.S on the 2013 North Atlantic season. To have a complete poll I included the option at the bottom of (No Landfalls in U.S) and it will close on May 31rst at 10:10 AM EDT.The poll only allows one vote per member but if peeps think more than one state will have x number of landfalls you can comment about that. This poll will allow members to change their vote to another option if you desire to do that but it will always be only one vote per member. Also if anyone wants to comment about why he/she voted for the state can do the same. A reminder that the Storm2k numbers poll will start on April 1rst at 4:00 PM EDT.

[Hurricanehink]

Both Florida and Texas have been spared pretty well over the past few years (since Ike in 2008), but given how it seems Texas is always in a drought, I think nature will shift things that way to balance it out.

[CrazyC83]

The Texas drought could also act as a storm-zapper with the dry air...

[Ntxw]

Florida

Anyone notice the strong southeast ridge so far this winter? If La Nina does form doesn't that tend to strengthen it? If so perhaps parts of the southeast could be protected to a degree

[OuterBanker]

LOL, NC with 0%. Love it. Hope it stays that way.

[galaxy401]

LOL, NC with 0%. Love it. Hope it stays that way.

Sorry I had to vote for NC. I think the East Coast might get another hurricane this year but not as bad as Sandy.

[TheStormExpert]

I think Florida will get spared at least one more year. Florida's been really lucky with its Hurricane Protection Shield on the past 7 years. I think the pattern currently in place in the SE US will be gone by June & July, which means troughs will once again dominant the US east coast and steer storms farther north along the east coast or out to sea like the previous 2 years.

I went with North Carolina because the storms that do make a close call to the US will graze the Outer Banks or make a brief landfall in North Carolina before going out to sea or heading towards the NE & Canada.

[MGC]

I voted for NC.....I think the cycle has shifted to the east coast like back in the 50's.........MGC

[Bocadude85]

I voted for Florida. Looking back in history for my area the longest gap I can find between hurricane strikes is 7 years. Its been 7 years since hurricane wilma hit us.

[cycloneye]

LOL, NC with 0%. Love it. Hope it stays that way.

Well my friend,it didn't last long. And in a tight race NC may be the one that may sqeeze more votes than the other options when it closes on May 31rst.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I voted for Louisiana, though I think we'll see several landfalls in several different states, Florida and Texas being a few. I don't think the USA will be as lucky as it has been in the past few seasons. The persistent troughing across the Northeast doesn't seem to be present so far this winter, and it's the main reason Sandy was able to hit the United States back in October.

[wxman57]

NC. Interesting European long-range pressure anomaly for May-July. Quite high pressures in the tropics:

[Blown Away]

NC. Interesting European long-range pressure anomaly for May-July. Quite high pressures in the tropics:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Your image does not display and can you explain your comment a little?

[wxman57]

NC. Interesting European long-range pressure anomaly for May-July. Quite high pressures in the tropics:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Your image does not display and can you explain your comment a little?

The image is from the ECMWF website seasonal forecast page.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... _forecast/

It's showing a large area of higher-than-normal pressures from the Gulf through the Caribbean and nearly to Africa. This is indicative of a stronger-than-normal Bermuda high pressure system at least early in the season. Such a pattern would reduce development potential in that region. The pattern would mean that the Gulf and Caribbean could be more hostile toward development than in 2012. Some seasons with a similar pressure pattern would be 1968, 1986, 1992 and 1993. Note that the Euro was forecasting similarly high pressures in the deep tropics for 2012. The forecast verified somewhat, but they weren't as high as forecast. However, the Euro was quite right that the deep tropics would be unfavorable for development in 2012. All hurricanes except Sandy formed in the subtropics, well north of 20N.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

NC. Interesting European long-range pressure anomaly for May-July. Quite high pressures in the tropics:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Your image does not display and can you explain your comment a little?

The image is from the ECMWF website seasonal forecast page.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... _forecast/

It's showing a large area of higher-than-normal pressures from the Gulf through the Caribbean and nearly to Africa. This is indicative of a stronger-than-normal Bermuda high pressure system at least early in the season. Such a pattern would reduce development potential in that region. The pattern would mean that the Gulf and Caribbean could be more hostile toward development than in 2012. Some seasons with a similar pressure pattern would be 1968, 1986, 1992 and 1993. Note that the Euro was forecasting similarly high pressures in the deep tropics for 2012. The forecast verified somewhat, but they weren't as high as forecast. However, the Euro was quite right that the deep tropics would be unfavorable for development in 2012. All hurricanes except Sandy formed in the subtropics, well north of 20N.

ECMWF ensemble mean is much more realistic.

[gigabite]

I want to change my vote. If I had known that North Carolina had 5 votes, I would have voted Mississippi.

Atlantic Coastal Storms, By: Analog Year,

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Bumping this poll to see if it get more votes. Even if is Febuary, I think is time for the members to turn this Talking Tropics forum more active participating in the polls and the other threads that are posted as the North Atlantic and EPAC seasons draw closer.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

You said above that we could change our choices, but I can't.

[cycloneye]

You said above that we could change our choices, but I can't.

I changed my vote so is working.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

You said above that we could change our choices, but I can't.

I changed my vote so is working.

It's really not though...unless there's some magic button I'm missing.