Grace organization

[tpr1967]

I could be wrong but i think grace i more of elongated trough then a TS.
7pm cdt advisory says:TROPICAL STORM GRACE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO CORPUS CHRISTI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 7 PM CDT...00100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
GRACE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 280 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...GRACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GRACE IS POORLY-ORGANIZED.

Tom

[wxman57]

That's what I've been seeing all day - a sharp trof axis with maybe a couple of small vortices spinning around. Sure, it has 40 mph winds in the squalls along the trof axis, but I don't think that the winds in those squalls were any less than when they were east of the Yucatan yesterday. It's all a question of WHERE the squalls are now. Squalls with TS winds near the Yucatan but no clear center = tropical wave by NHC. Same thing over the NW Gulf lease areas = TS.

But I might add that the upper-level low is now weakening, and SW shear is droping off. So Grace may become a true TS with an actual center of circulation before landfall.

[Stormsfury]

Grace is a product of baroclinicity ... RECON had a very hard time finding a clear cut center earlier, but based on surface reports it's there.

However, notice the weakening of the convection as the ULL is weakening it's grip over Grace tonight. Very typical in a hybrid storm.

SF

[PTrackerLA]

The deepest convection is now firing well to the east of the "center". I wonder if Louisiana might get the brunt of this "mess".