Couple of years back, there was some discussion that the Upper East Coast was 'overdue' and that since it had been so long, current residents had no experience in direct strikes. Now they've been hit twice in two years with significant systems (specific terminology somewhat in dispute).
So, will they get hit again in '13, or will they get a break?
Upper East Coast Again In '13, Yay or Nay?
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WeatherGuesser
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At least in the early stages the pattern is similar to the 1950s. +AMO/-PDO drought in the middle of the country and persistent -NAO coming back every few months with the subtropics in this region over delivering systems the past few years. If you recall that decade was quite active for the Northeast Coast. I say the chances continue to be greater than normal for this area.
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Riptide
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Re: Upper East Coast Again In '13, Yay or Nay?
It's not looking good for the next 20-30 years as the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) continues in conjunction with Climate Change. Each year will have differences but we should suspect an above average chance of a east coast threat every year. Especially concerning because of potential sea level rises by 2050, and not just for the East Coast.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I have never heard of the east coast being hit hard 3 years in a row...but there is no reason why it can't happen.
Not sure about 3 years in a row, but 1954 is probably benchmark for the northeast coast. Carol, Edna, and Hazel did a lot of damage in one season the first two land falling as hurricanes (Carol made landfall as cat 3 in New England). A season like that today would end up costing crazy numbers.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:I have never heard of the east coast being hit hard 3 years in a row...but there is no reason why it can't happen.
Not sure about 3 years in a row, but 1954 is probably benchmark for the northeast coast. Carol, Edna, and Hazel did a lot of damage in one season the first two land falling as hurricanes (Carol made landfall as cat 3 in New England). A season like that today would end up costing crazy numbers.
1954 and 1955 combined had 6 hits on the east coast (Carol, Edna, Hazel, Connie, Diane and Ione). They all behaved in totally different ways too. But 1956 was pretty quiet.
Still, I see no reason why the east coast cannot have another bad hurricane or two in 2013.
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