5 (7 AM) on Grace

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WTNT41 KNHC 311032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

AIR FORCE RECON FOUND MULTIPLE...POORLY-DEFINED CENTERS WITHIN A LARGER ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE POSITION GIVEN FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION FOR SUCH A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM ANYWAY...SINCE THE MAIN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS ARE SITUATED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BROWNSVILLE IS APPARENTLY INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
INDEED...GRACE MAY NO LONGER BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...WE ARE RELUCTANT TO DOWNGRADE THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO LANDFALL...AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW CONVECTIVE FLAREUP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12 WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF GRACE SHOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM INLAND WITHIN 12 HOURS OR LESS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON A FASTER INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM GRACE SHOULD BE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND OR WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 27.0N 96.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 27.8N 97.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 29.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 01/1800Z 29.5N 99.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/0600Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED