Area near 25N 65W

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westwind
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Area near 25N 65W

#1 Postby westwind » Sat May 11, 2013 5:10 am

What is this feature? It seems to have a circulation and has improved in apperence quite fast since I have been watching it. I'm I on to nothing or is this feature worth watching.
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Re: Area near 25N 65W

#2 Postby NDG » Sat May 11, 2013 6:30 am

This is just an upper level low, no reflection at the surface.
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#3 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat May 11, 2013 9:50 am

Image
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Re: Area near 25N 65W

#4 Postby Macrocane » Sat May 11, 2013 10:05 am

It does look very good, it's an ULL but the circulation is almost closed at the surface, or it seems that way.
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#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 11, 2013 10:30 am

yeah appears to have a surface reflection. convection is moderate but persistent. only problem is its vertically stacked with a upper low. however over time if it can maintain could transition into a more favorable setup.
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Re: Area near 25N 65W

#6 Postby floridasun78 » Sat May 11, 2013 10:47 am

i bet it will pull ne by front on monday that going cross fl plus shear i bet will go very high soon
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#7 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat May 11, 2013 11:41 am

Surface pressure has fallen over the last 24 hours:

Image

12Z surface analysis has a 1012mb low:

Image

But with the ULL over top, it's going to have a hard time becoming warm-core with higher wind shear approaching.
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#8 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 11, 2013 12:30 pm

If it can develop a well defined center and convection increase a little more they might have to notice it. Its beginning to look a little subtropical atm. models are picking it up moving w to wnw towards central bahamas before (depending on what model ) weakens it or gets absorbed in the front.
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#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 11, 2013 2:54 pm

continues to improve in orginization at the surface. if that upper low weakens could see an invest
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Re: Area near 25N 65W

#10 Postby supercane4867 » Sat May 11, 2013 4:12 pm

Recent OSCAT pass show well defind COC with 40-45kt winds

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#11 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat May 11, 2013 5:06 pm

The system is slowly beginning to become unstacked. Low-level flow is easterly and upper-level flow is westerly. This should put it on the divergent side of the upper-level low/trough that is currently saving it from destructive wind shear. Tomorrow = death.
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#12 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat May 11, 2013 9:42 pm

My thoughts: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... he-season/
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Re: Area near 25N 65W

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 11, 2013 9:57 pm

Naked swirl.

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#14 Postby Hurricane Jed » Sat May 11, 2013 10:17 pm

Yuck. Rooting for shear on this one.
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Re:

#15 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 11, 2013 10:38 pm


pretty much dead on...
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