Fabian the Fish?

[Suncat]

There still seems to be an idea from the NHC that the trough developing and pushing off the eastern US will be strong enough to push Fabian more northward and out into the Atlantic. However, two models are not so bullish on this scenario and actually have the trough weakening before have a major influence of Fabian. There is also a feeling that Grace may actually influence Fabian to continue moving on its current course with little or not turn to the north.

So the question is, which is the more likely scenario. Granted, it is far too early to make an accurate prediction on the final path, but a general idea would be appreciated.

[Stephanie]

TWC is showing a turn to the NW by Thursday - they use the GFS. The GFS MSLP for the 06z initialization from 9/5 to 9/7 shows Fabian more like a regular low-pressure system and elongated. The ETA I might add shows it looking the same way.

Here's the ETA - where's Fabian????

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/DTXEta/extmslp9.gif

Here's the GFS at 96 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

There are many on this board that forecast more on the trends and the air patterns and flows. Does anyone have any guesses as to what they think Fabian may do?

[ColdFront77]

The Weather Channel releases information the National Hurricane Center puts out.

Hurricane Fabian remains a serious concern for the the United States east coast. It is too early to determine where it could go with the Bermuda High playing a major role as it always does.

Currently, the high is expected to build in this week [at least toward the Bahamas]. I don't see how that could support a west-northwest to northwest to eventually a north-northwestward motion in the next 72 to 120 hours.