11am Advisory.. 1 degree North in 3 hours

[chadtm80]

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 31, 2003


...Fabian expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands in a
day or two...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Fabian was located near
latitude 18.1 north...longitude 53.2 west or about 550 miles...885
km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Fabian is moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr. A gradual
turn to the west northwest is forecast during the next day or two.
On this track...Fabian is expected to pass well to the north of the
Leeward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours. An Air Force reconnaissance plane will reach Fabian early
Monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb...28.11 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...18.1 N... 53.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 952 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

[chadtm80]

Discussion


Hurricane Fabian Discussion Number 16


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 31, 2003



the eye has been obscured by the cirrus canopy and can not be
clearly observed with conventional visible and IR images at this
time...but the eye is very distinct on the latest available
microwave SSM/I data. The overall cloud pattern remains well
organized with banding features and good outflow. Although some of
the T-numbers have decreased a bit...the maximum winds are kept at
110 knots. The true intensity will be known when the first
reconnaissance plane reaches the hurricane early Monday.

The hurricane is heading for warmer waters and the shear is forecast
to be low. Therefore...some additional strengthening is possible
during the next few days. Since the large scale environment is
favorable...at this stage...the intensity changes are probably
controlled by eyewall dynamics.

Fabian is moving westward or 280 degrees at 11 knots. A strong
subtropical ridge is expected to be to the north of the hurricane
during the next day or two..providing a general west to
west-northwest steering. Thereafter...the subtropical ridge is
expected to move eastward allowing Fabian to turn more toward the
northwest and north. This is consistent with track guidance which
unanimously brings the hurricane northward to the east of the U.S
coast. A NOAA high altitude jet will Sample the environment
controlling the path of Fabian later today. We shall see if the
data impacts the track guidance.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/1500z 18.1n 53.2w 110 kt
12hr VT 01/0000z 18.5n 55.0w 115 kt
24hr VT 01/1200z 19.3n 57.3w 120 kt
36hr VT 02/0000z 20.0n 59.5w 120 kt
48hr VT 02/1200z 21.0n 61.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 03/1200z 23.5n 65.0w 120 kt
96hr VT 04/1200z 26.0n 67.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 05/1200z 29.0n 68.5w 120 kt

[cycloneye]

Ummmm 280 west but I think it has the distance still to pass well north of the islands however a little more close than before forecasts.

[chadtm80]

Was at 80N at 5am, now at 81.. Thats a West movement.. I know it will go back on a more N. track here again soon, but its wobble West makes a difference