Is the Complaceny about Hurricanes Back?

[johngaltfla]

For those of you who are old timers and those who are new, I've lurked posted and been active for many years now here off and on as time permits. Yes, I've contributed and yes I will again this year financially and on this board with commentary. The one thing I've noticed in Florida, sadly, once again, is complacency. It is almost as if we are in the Spring of 2004 all over again and many people hear the experts, watch the local mets and yawn.

I hope I am wrong but I would love to hear the perspective of others from TX to Nova Scotia as to what the gut feeling and perceptions are of your region as the season is about to start.

[cycloneye]

Good topic that you made. What I have seen where I am in PR is more awareness about preparation as this island has been thru some close calls in recent years but also we got a visit in 2012 by TS Irene (Hurricane as soon it emerged off the North coast) The main concern here is the flooding as it occurs here frequently with many rain events.

[johngaltfla]

Good topic that you made. What I have seen where I am in PR is more awareness about preparation as this island has been thru some close calls in recent years but also we got a visit in 2012 by TS Irene (Hurricane as soon it emerged off the North coast) The main concern here is the flooding as it occurs here frequently with many rain events.

You are not kidding. I got caught down there one October when a Tropical Wave stalled and it was a nightmare to move from the east side of the island where I was saying to the customers I was working with in San Juan. In our neck of the woods, all of the new "flood prevention" programs have yet to be tested by a major TS or slow moving Hurricane so I hope this time the engineers got it right; if they did not my new location in Sarasota County will be somewhat swamp!

[Hurricane Jed]

Urban growth and population changeover are a big part of it. Some people just don't know when they move into these coastal regions. I say this pretty much every year, lightning can strike twice and all it takes is for one storm to be bad. Doesn't matter if we have 13 or 3 storms. All it takes is one.

[southerngale]

There's more awareness in this area than there used to be. Everything is pre-Rita, post-Rita, pre-Ike, and post-Ike. Getting devastated by hurricanes 3 years apart (not to mention Hurricane Humberto's hit as well) changed lives and everyone I talk to seems to be more aware. I used to have very few people I could really talk tropics with. Now, people are more interested and pay much more attention.... generally speaking, of course. There will always be people who don't have a clue what is going on.

[Hurricaneman]

Complacency is a bad thing as in that 1 storm that does sneak into anywhere on the coast is deadly because they think its not that bad or its going to recurve or weaken

[JonathanBelles]

With the three main storms last year and two near or direct hits here in Florida, I do not think complacency is coming back. Debby, Isaac, and Sandy are those storms. It is never a good idea however to estimate complacency, and it is a good idea to keep pounding away with the information and preparedness tips.

[Kalrany]

Not in my circles. Perhaps once things are actually finished being rebuilt, but Ike is still at the forefront of many people's minds. Hard to forget when you are consistently rerouting due to construction...

[SFLcane]

Plently of complacency here across southern florida in my view with most storms recurving last couple seasons. Its been 22 years since a significant hurricane strike across dade/broward counties.

i do think Florida has an above normal risk this year as I forsee the pattern featuring a trough over the Lakes but yet an active western Atlantic Ridge. This would steer storms close to the southeast coast. Very active capeverde season with 04 type tracks.

[psyclone]

the answer to your question depends on where you live and your recent hurricane history. Human nature is such that we tend to overestimate risk when something bad is a fresh memory and underestimate risk when nothing bad is in our memory banks. my guess is the folks of moore oklahoma have a tornado concern that greatly exceeds that of a nearby town that hasn't had such a recent run of horrendous luck. the same is true of hurricanes and the comments above reflect that. in my area (tampa bay) complacency, alway in abundant supply, is off the charts as we have a hurricane free luck streak that is beyond astonishing. is it really a stretch to bet it lasts another year? folks have been making that bet for decades and winning. but as we all know, something that doesn't last forever will eventually end.

[george_r_1961]

In my neck of the woods Hurricane Isabel in 2003 woke everyone up so when Irene came calling in 2011 people paid attention. Although both these storms did quite a bit of damage in my area neither one came close to being a worst case scenario. To many of us here both storms were little more than a nuisance and there were few if any reports of sustained hurricane force winds.

I do think there is a sense of complacency in my area since few have experienced sustained hurricane force winds and fewer still have experienced a major. No one has any idea what a few hours of even high end Cat 1 winds(say 90 mph) can do and if they make the mistake of comparing a major directly impacting my area with 130 ,mph winds and a horrific storm surge with storms like Isabel and Irene that mistake could prove deadly.

[Sambucol]

Ike came right through my city with the eye passing over us. A lot of destruction. I was shocked when I found out Baytown isn't having the annual hurricane preparedness workshop this year. According to the city, it's because of the public's lack of interest, and the cost effectiveness doesn't warrant holding it this year. So, yes there is some complacency here. Enough to not hold a workshop. I don't recall that ever happening in Baytown.

[beoumont]

SFLCane noted
i do think Florida has an above normal risk this year as I forsee the pattern featuring a trough over the Lakes but yet an active western Atlantic Ridge. This would steer storms close to the southeast coast. Very active capeverde season with 04 type tracks.

Just as with any entity, individual or institutional, that makes this type of seasonal "forecast", it appears TO ME to be based on factors non-scientific. Either wishful thinking, or statistical averaging, or playing to their commercial interests, etc.

The following statement, directly from the NOAA seasonal outlook, has been and continues to be the best explanation of anyone's confidence in trying to predict landfall areas before a season even starts:

<<<<<
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, which are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall. >>>[

[WeatherGuesser]

Its been 22 years since a significant hurricane strike across dade/broward counties.

That means potentially millions of people living there that have never experienced a major storm. Not only people that have moved there, but people who were born and raised there. Also public safety people who have worked their entire careers without dealing with one.

[Alyono]

there was a little storm called Wilma that caused nearly 20 billion in damage in South Florida. Brought higher winds to center of Miami than did Andrew

[SFLcane]

there was a little storm called Wilma that caused nearly 20 billion in damage in South Florida. Brought higher winds to center of Miami than did Andrew

If theres one thing wilma showed is that even strong cat 1-2 winds can be devastating in a highly populated area such a miami dade and broward counties. In terms of my previous post i was refering to major hurricane force winds which in all honesty most have never experienced down here if you werent around during the 50's. If andrew would have made landfall in downtown miami it would have been epic.

[WeatherEmperor]

Plently of complacency here across southern florida in my view with most storms recurving last couple seasons. Its been 22 years since a significant hurricane strike across dade/broward counties.

i do think Florida has an above normal risk this year as I forsee the pattern featuring a trough over the Lakes but yet an active western Atlantic Ridge. This would steer storms close to the southeast coast. Very active capeverde season with 04 type tracks.

Hi there,

Interesting information about the pattern. I need some help on this because up until now, I have only seen trof after trof move off the east coast. One just came through that gave us all the rain in south florida. Will this pattern change to more ridging during the heart of the hurricane season?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[psyclone]

there was a little storm called Wilma that caused nearly 20 billion in damage in South Florida. Brought higher winds to center of Miami than did Andrew

If theres one thing wilma showed is that even strong cat 1-2 winds can be devastating in a highly populated area such a miami dade and broward counties. In terms of my previous post i was refering to major hurricane force winds which in all honesty most have never experienced down here if you werent around during the 50's. If andrew would have made landfall in downtown miami it would have been epic.

Wilma also demonstrates the danger of a back door sucker punch unique to peninsular florida's geography. We have to keep our eyes peeled in multiple directions down here.

[Jimsot]

Everyone here is always aware, hey it's the Caribbean! Just finished inspecting and repairing all our storm shutters and making sure they fit. Started to 'use up' all the goodies in the standalone freezer because we do not have a generator. Have plenty of emergency lighting and water. Still need to do some trimming of the landscape, than its time to 'wait' and hope every storm stays out to sea.

[CrazyC83]

Plently of complacency here across southern florida in my view with most storms recurving last couple seasons. Its been 22 years since a significant hurricane strike across dade/broward counties.

i do think Florida has an above normal risk this year as I forsee the pattern featuring a trough over the Lakes but yet an active western Atlantic Ridge. This would steer storms close to the southeast coast. Very active capeverde season with 04 type tracks.

Hi there,

Interesting information about the pattern. I need some help on this because up until now, I have only seen trof after trof move off the east coast. One just came through that gave us all the rain in south florida. Will this pattern change to more ridging during the heart of the hurricane season?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Wouldn't a trough pattern be tough on early and late season storms though that may form in the Gulf and western Caribbean? That would just send them towards Florida...