11 AM EDT TROPICAL UPDATE

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. Tropical storm Grace has made landfall west of Galveston, TX and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. All tropical storm warnings along the Texas coast has been discontinued at this time.

The 11 am edt position of Grace is around latitude 28.4 north, longitude 96.4 west. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 35 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland. However it's moving more slowly. So the big concern is not wind, but very heavy rains and totals could add up to be more significant than first progged. Already 6 inches of rain has fallen in parts of Galveston and Harris Counties and another 6-9 inches of rain is possible in these areas. Storm totals of 8-14 inches is a possibility with isolated higher amounts in the greater Houston area before all said and done. So significant fresh water flooding from heavy rains is the primary concern for the Galveston and greater Houston areas at this time. The lowest central pressure is 1008.6 millibars. That's about 29.80 inches.

Hurricane Fabian remains at 125 mph as of 11 AM. At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 18.1 north, longitude 53.2 west or about 550 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Fabian is moving to the west at near 13 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual tuen to the west northwest in the next 12-24 hours. Fabian is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands. However higher than normal waves and dangerous rip currents are expected along the north and northeast facing beaches of the northern Lesser Antillies, I'll say that right now!!

Maximum sustained winds are now 125 mph with higher gusts. Fabian is expected to strengthen further over the nxt 24 hours. A reconnaossance plane will reach the center of Fabian early Monday morning as Fabian will be crossing 60 degrees west longitude around that time period.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 25 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward 115 miles. Minimum central pressure is still 952 mb or 28.11 inches. Once again the biggest threat for the northern Lesser Antillies is high waves and very dangerous rip currents on the north and northeast facing beaches due to big swells generated from Hurricane Fabian. Keep an eye on that, otherwise enjoy your vacation in the Lesser Antillies. As for the east coast of the United States, it's too early to speculate if there will be a landfalLing major hurricane on the eastern seaboard. But the threat is still very real and we can't let our guards down along the east coast, I'll tell you that right now!!! It's still a wait and see approach for the eastern United States. But stay tuned just in case!

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the big island of Hawaii late this morning as Hurricane Jimena approaches the big island. At 11 AM EDT 5 AM HST the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 18.0 north, longitude 148.5 west. Jimena is moving towards the west at near 17 mph, maximum sustained winds 105 mph, minimum central pressure 971 mb, 28.67 inches. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The big island of Hawaii will likely see squally weather later tonite into early Monday as Jimena's center passes just south of the big island. The southern tip of the big island could see wind gusts over hurricane force as well as on the peaks of the mountain slopes. Otherwise sustained winds will most likely be tropical storm force throughout the big island, but stronger on the southern tip of the big island. Large battering waves and dangerous rip currents are also likely on the east facing beaches and shores of the Hawaiian Islands. Be careful!!

Another update later today. Stay tuned.

Jim