Atlantic wave (Is Invest 92L)

Aric Dunn · #1 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:28 pm

anyone else notice the wave in the atlantic. mostly devoid of convention but it clearly has a circ and convection building.. hard to tell exactly since the images are blurry..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Aric Dunn · #2 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:22 pm

looking better today.. no real model support except the cmc briefly all models keep it as a strong wave though. very well organized wave this time a year.

TheStormExpert · #3 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:44 pm

This seems very similar to 2010 when we had strong tropical waves exiting Africa and crossing the Atlantic through the Caribbean. One of them around the middle of June 2010 made it across all the way and turned out to become Hurricane Alex in the Western Caribbean/BoC. This could be a very obvious sign of a very active Cape Verde Season just like 2010.

#4 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:45 pm

Few days ago the CMC developed some sort of OTS storm.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:55 pm

The 00z Surface Analysis adds a low to this wave.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:32 pm

Impressive ASCAT pass made on June 5 at 0032z.

#7 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:38 pm

I'm a little surprised this little guy isn't an invest. It should round the Bermuda high in about a week.

#8 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:41 pm

That does look a pretty impressive ASCAT pass. Maybe it will become a lemon?

#9 Postby **Fego** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 8:43 am

According to the AFD from San Juan NWS the wave has the look, but we are in June.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 41.5W.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SFC LOW PRES AND HAS
PLENTY OF CONVECTION AT THE H7 WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO ACCOMPANIED
BY SIG AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE WERE IN AUG I WOULD BE
EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS
JUNE AND THE WAVE IS FORECAT TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THIS WAVE
WILL BRING STRONG CONVECTION TO OUR AREA SUN AS IT INTERACTS
FAVORABLY ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT FCST TO BE LOCATED OVR HISPANIOLA.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Aric Dunn · #10 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:13 am

looking at it this morning it pretty clear there is a closed circ and convection has persisted for more than 36 hours. not attached to the itcz.... hmmm that sounds like something to me... lol

looks better than 91l... lol

#11 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:30 am

I agree. Looking at the ASCAT pass and satellite imagey, there is definitely a well defined closed circulation out there. It may be early June, but nevertheless this is a well defined CV disturbance. I feel this area does warrant an invest designation imo.

Aric Dunn · #12 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 1:52 pm

is the nhc kidding.... that is a td easily probably a TS convection has maintained for 2 days clearly a well defined circ is present even banding. talk about over looking just because its june. lol

Weatherboy1 · #13 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 2:00 pm

Very nice definition, and yes, it has maintained for a reasonable period of time. I seem to recall a few seasons back there was a June TD that formed pretty far out in the Atlantic. Held together for a day or two then fizzled out as it got into an area of higher shear. If this thing developed deeper convection over its center, I wouldn't be surprised to at least see it mentioned in the TWO. The entire Atlantic is pretty much warmer than usual, so that could happen even though it's early. Trouble is, shear out in front of it looks pretty nasty, so it probably won't hold together for too much longer.

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 2:30 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:I'm a little surprised this little guy isn't an invest. It should round the Bermuda high in about a week.

Yes me too. No mention by NHC at all in the outlook???

GFS picked up on this feature last week and it nailed it that is for sure.

islandguy246 · #15 Postby **islandguy246** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 2:45 pm

Any reason the models have it moving to the NW?

#16 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 3:18 pm

CMC shows it recurving. This should be an invest. Really should.

#17 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 3:19 pm

There's an LLC! Look!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

Aric Dunn · #18 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 3:20 pm

starting to fier more convection over the center.. looks like a Ts easy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

#19 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 3:21 pm

This is nuts. This should be at least an invest.

#20 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Wed Jun 05, 2013 4:27 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:This is nuts. This should be at least an invest.

Agreed, though no doubt those at the NHC are waiting to make sure it doesn't poof in the next 24hr become declaring it anything.

Atlantic wave (Is Invest 92L)

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