Social Science Fail: The transition to Post-Tropical Cyclone

[JonathanBelles]

If you've been watching twitter or listening to the news this past week with Andrea, you would know that we as scientists and admirers of the science have failed to convey a critical transitional point of our science.

It seems that the National Weather Service has instrumented a huge step into the meteorological aspect of understanding this problem, but the social science continues to lag.

During Andrea's conversion to "post-tropical", the news and social media (sadly, myself included in the past) began to convey that Andrea was weakening and that she was being "down"graded. This is an obviously false declaration.

So we have figured out a problem, what's the fix?

I'd love to hear your answers. I note that the social meteorology is just as important as the hard-core meteorology itself.

[brunota2003]

It transitioned from a tropical to a post tropical system? I don't understand why people sometimes think that the general public is too "dumb" to understand that there are different types of systems.

I think most people understand there is some sort of transitional process from a tropical to extra-tropical system...the problem lies in that most news organizations "downplay" the post tropical phase, even though it can be the most deadly time of the system. Don't say it has been downgraded, it weakened to, etc...it just simply transitioned. It is still just as dangerous as it was before, but in a different form. If that makes sense.

[tolakram]

The media downgrades it because up until this year the hurricane center would drop it like a hot potato. The NHC is one location, and an easy single source for national media to go to. It's going to take a while to re-condition the media, IMO.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Even when a tropical cyclone transitions into a Extra-tropical cyclone, it still can be dangerous because I have been there, many times. In 2011 Hurricane Katia hit the UK as a extratropical cyclone and gave us sustained winds of over 95 mph but it never was mentioned on the news.

[Kalrany]

The media downgrades it because up until this year the hurricane center would drop it like a hot potato. The NHC is one location, and an easy single source for national media to go to. It's going to take a while to re-condition the media, IMO.

This (the media) is largely the issue. It's not that it is hard to understand, but when it is presented as a downgrade, people believe the experts... whether they are expert or not. The NHC changes should help, but the answer is still "time" -- and really pushing the media to understand so they can use the correct language. (Sadly, this is a fact of most of scientific communication with the public, and rarely (if ever) does it happen the way it should.)

[chaser1]

I've got to totally agree with Tolakram (above). Once extra tropical, NHC no longer issues advisories and to those in the media, this represents one less item on "the next feed".

Remember, just like with the NYSE you have ticker symbols which flash each time there is a trade for a particular stock along with the change in that stocks price & value. So, imagine that instead of an expected Advisory on the News Wire, nothing further is issued on that storm by NHC. Reason being, once a tropical system goes "post tropical" (or extra tropical), the final line of text within every TWO or Tropical Discussion that I can remember, says "....this will be the final advisory on Tropical Storm ####, all additional information regarding this system may be obtained via the North Atlantic High Seas division... (actually am not sure if this is the exact name of the agency or division that monitors high latitude systems). So, just as Tolakram already indicated the "main switch" for any news or info that the Media might check would have suddenly been turned off at the point where NHC decides that their department should cease to write "tropical" advisories for that given system.

[Cyclenall]

If you've been watching twitter or listening to the news this past week with Andrea, you would know that we as scientists and admirers of the science have failed to convey a critical transitional point of our science.

It seems that the National Weather Service has instrumented a huge step into the meteorological aspect of understanding this problem, but the social science continues to lag.

During Andrea's conversion to "post-tropical", the news and social media (sadly, myself included in the past) began to convey that Andrea was weakening and that she was being "down"graded. This is an obviously false declaration.

Yes, I've seen this both on The Weather Network and CTV news here in Canada too, its annoying and cringe-worthy. Just with TS Andrea, there was a broadcaster on my local CTV news who does the weather that I'm not fond of, who said that TS Andrea just became post-tropical and that is "good news" . That is both a weather cliche that irks me plus its false information, its no less dangerous than it was before the transition.

I note that the social meteorology is just as important as the hard-core meteorology itself.

For me personally its not but for the public, it is.

It transitioned from a tropical to a post tropical system? I don't understand why people sometimes think that the general public is too "dumb" to understand that there are different types of systems.

I think most people understand there is some sort of transitional process from a tropical to extra-tropical system...

I wouldn't say that, never overestimate the intelligence of the public, because almost always its too high . Even myself before meteorology, I didn't know what highs and lows meant for weather and didn't even know that hurricanes were low pressure systems at the basic level. The general public might be the same and not always know that a hurricane is a low pressure system. Hopefully more and more will know this .

Even when a tropical cyclone transitions into a Extra-tropical cyclone, it still can be dangerous because I have been there, many times. In 2011 Hurricane Katia hit the UK as a extratropical cyclone and gave us sustained winds of over 95 mph but it never was mentioned on the news.

And to add to this, often "fish" storms aren't really fish at all when they go on to hit Europe as a powerful windstorm that causes extensive damage and sometimes deaths. Its rare and difficult for Atlantic storms to be completely land and human interaction free for the lifespan of the entity.