TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT
60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SHOWS SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PRESSURE ARE HIGH AND WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THIS AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Convection has blossomed in the past few hours, and it appears there is a very weak surface low. Looking at buoy observations, I found winds up to 25 or 30 knots, and S, SSE, ENE, NNE, NNW winds. No buoys are in the spots that W, WSW or SW winds would be. The NNW winds were really weak, though (only a couple of knots). The buoys did have broad wind shifts associated with the low as it passed near/over them.
