My forecast for Fabian

[obxhurricane]

I'm on duty today, and here is my forecast, for those who might want to read it. Our forecasts only go to 72 hours.



--TFCTSU--

NEMAS-TFC

Tropical Storm Update

National Environmental and Meteorological Association

02:10 PM EDT Sunday, August 31, 2003



Hurricane Fabian



**Current position and forecast track**



Latest position and intensity:

18.1 North, 53.2 West - Highest sustained winds: 125 mph /110 knots.

12 hour forecast:

18.4 North, 55.3 West - Highest sustained winds: 130 mph /115 knots.

24 hour forecast:

19.0 North, 57.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 140 mph/120 knots.

36 hour forecast:

19.8 North, 59.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 140 mph/120 knots.

48 hour forecast:

20.9 North, 61.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 140 mph/120 knots.

72 hour forecast:

25.0 North, 64.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 140/120 knots.



Storm Discussion:


Here are the current statistics on Hurricane Fabian as of the 11 AM EDT Advisory:

Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 knots/125 mph
Minimum Central Pressure - 952 mb/28.11 inches of Hg.
Movement: West at 11 knots/13 mph




Fabian continues to have an impressive satellite signature, despite the eye being
obscured for a brief time this morning. Latest visible and IR satellite imagery show
the eye quite well...with an impressive eye wall and very cold cloud tops also
noted. Outflow remains excellent in all quadrants and an impressive outflow channel
has formed to the north and east of the system.

The fairly strong upper level westerlies that have been persistent the past few days
from north of Puerto Rico to Bermuda are finally showing signs of relaxing, and or
retreating to the west as an upper low located over the northern Bahamas slides
west. This suggests that wind shear will remain low acorss the forecast path of
Fabian. This, combined with warmer waters along the forecast track, should allow for
further strengthening to occur. Thus...the intensity forecast is consistent with the
previous package and brings Fabian to a 120 knot category 4 hurricane in 24 hours.

Track guidance...both statistical and global...remain consistent in steering Fabian
west to west-northwest during the next 48 hours...then turning the cyclone toward
the northwest by 60-72 hours. This has been the theme for the past few days as
Fabian continues around the periphery of the strong Atlantic subtropical ridge. The
models all weaken the western flank of the ridge by day 3 as troughiness develops
along the U.S. East coast...allowing for a NW motion. The track forecast for this
package was very close to the most recent GFDL and is consistent with the average of
most of the statistical and global model data available.

Beyond our 72 hour forecast period the models all take Fabian north toward Bermuda
or just west of Bermuda before turning the hurricane harmlessly out to sea. This
seems plausible given the current trends in the long range models. However,
residents along the East coast should closely monitor future advisories on Fabian
until it is clear the storm will head NE and away from land.


OVERMAN

[Colin]

Great forecast!!! Very well put together!

[obxhurricane]

Thank you. I hope it verifies. Man, the 0Z objective guidance sure is interesting.

I'll post my forecast from tomorrow morning as soon as I type it.

[msbee]

yes, I agree
great forecast
especially since the forecast semes to confirm movement well North of the Northern Caribbean islands
how sure do you feel about this?