Fabian, the remnants of Grace and Jimena approaches Hawaii!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Fabian becomes a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the siffir simpson hurricane scale. At 5 PM EDT, the center of dangerous hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 18.2 north, longitude 54.0 west or about 500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Movement continues westward at a slower speed of 12 mpg and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west northwest. Fabian should pass north of the Leeward Islands in the next 36-48 hours. However large battering waves and dangerous rips currents are likely on the north and northeast facing beaches of the norther Lesser Antillies. Satellite images indicate Fabian has strengthened during the past 6 hours and thus maximum sustained winds have increased to 135 mph with higher gusts. This makes Fabian a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the siffir simpson hurricane scale. A hurricane hunter plane will investigate Fabian early Monday and determine the exact intensity. Hurricane force winds extend outward 25 miles from the center while the tropical storm force winds extend outward 115 miles. Minimum central pressure is now down to 948 millibars or 27.99 inches of mercury. The track remian similar to earlier taking the system around a subtropical ridge in the western atlantic. It's too early to speculate whether or not the east coast is a prime threat for a major landfalling hurricane. However regardless whether it makes landfall on the US or not, dangerous and deadly rip currents and large battering waves will begin Friday and last into next weekend for the eastern seaboard. Nearshore waves of 6-10 feet are likely along the mid atlantic coast next weekend with higher seas in the swell offshore. If Fabian makes landfall on the east coast, those wave and sea heights would be much worse.

A noaa high altitude aircraft is launching dropsondes in the surrrounding environment of Fabian. This could make or break future computer model runs, stay tuned!!!

The remnants of Grace continues to result in havy rains in southeast Texas. 9 inches near BAYTOWN, TX and some places got 6-9 inches in and near the Houston area in Harris and Galveston Counties. Rainfall amounts of 8-15 inches total is likely in the greater Houston and Galveston area. Thus flash flood watches are out and flood warnings are definitely neccessary if it rains that much all at once in a short period of time!!

A hurricane watch and a tropica storm warning remains in effect for the big island of Hawaii. At 5 PM EDT 11 AM HST the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 18.1 north, longitude 150.9 west or about 305 miles ese of Hilo, Hawaii. Jimena was moving towards the west at 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This would bring the Jimena very close to the southern tip of the big island by Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. No change in strength is anticipated for the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward 30 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward 115 miles. Minimum central pressure is now 970 mb!!

Biggest threats for Hawaii include large battering waves with dangerous rip currents along the east and southeast facing beaches. Nearshore waves are expected to be 8-15 feet. Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches is possible in the big island, thus a flood watch is in effect in the big island for tonight into Monday. Isolated tornadoes are possible in outer feeder bands and heavy squalls, especially in areas north and east of the center of circulation.

Another update later tonite or earlier if neccessary!!! Good evening.

Jim

[Colin]

Thanks for the update Jim!!