My forecast for Fabian

[DelStormLover]

NOTE: THIS FORECAST IS NON-OFFICIAL AND IS INTENDED FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FORECASTS FROM THE NHC/TPC FOR MAKING DECISIONS BASED ON ANY FORECAST.
AT 5PM, AST, THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE FABIAN WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.21 NORTH, 54.03 WEST OR ABOUT 1916 MILES FROM LEWES, DELAWARE.
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 115 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MILLIBARS.
MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS.
FABIAN IS ENTERING A AREA OF SOME WIND SHEAR, SO ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A OUT TO SEA TRACK,SOME ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. ALSO, SOME OF THE MODELS, NAMELY THE GFS POORLY INITIALIZED FABIAN AT THE MOST RECENT RUNNING OF THEM.
ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY, THE ESTIMATED POINT OF US LANDFALL, IF ANY, WILL BE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA, TO CAPE COD, MASSACHUSETTS.
ALL RESIDENTS OF THE EAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR MAJOR HURRICANE FABIAN CLOSELY.
FABIAN BEARS SOME SIMILARITY'S TO THE CHESAPEAKE-POTOMAC HURRICANE OF 1933,AND HURRICANE CONNIE IN 1954
THE STORM ALSO BEARS SOME SLIGHT SIMILARITY'S TO HAZEL IN 1954,HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960, AND HURRICANE HUGO IN 1989.

[mf_dolphin]

Actually I believe the potential shear is decreasing. Warmer waters and lower shear (not that there's been much anyway_) could lead to a CAT 5.